Crisis in Iran

The Iranian parliament decided to summon President Hasan Rouhani to account for the parlous state of the country

Iran is in trouble and it is going to get worse. The Iranian parliament for the first time decided to summon President Hasan Rouhani to account for the parlous state the country finds itself in. Parliament was not satisfied with his answers. The economy is in free-fall, unemployment is rising and the rial has depreciated sharply, losing half its value since April. The labour and economy ministers have already been impeached, and parliament was of the view that what it saw as the failure of the Rouhani government ought to be referred to the judiciary to determine whether or not he should be impeached.

All this may seem far away and irrelevant, but far from it, Iran is at the centre of a storm whipped up by the American administration and specifically President Trump, who has withdrawn from the nuclear deal between Iran and a range of world powers and re-imposed sanctions. Further sanctions are due to come into force in November, this time hitting the Iranian oil industry. The hope had been that the nuclear deal would encourage inwards investment and for a while that seemed to be the case but today foreign investors are walking away in droves, scared off by the American moves and the prospect of internal instability.

There have been several instances of street disturbances in recent months but nothing that would threaten the government, but that is not a situation that will be sustainable long term if the country continues to slide deeper into recession. President Rouhani, however, remained in denial mode when answering questions in parliament. He offered nothing by way of policy insights or adjustments, the corrective measures parliament was hoping for, but instead retreated to the Never-Never Land that is ‘the people’s view’ and the negativity being expressed as being at the root of all ills rather than any American machinations. Were the people to get behind his government then all would be resolved. The reality is that by and large the Iranian people, whatever their political position, blame the Rouhani government for the situation their country is in. Now is not the time for blinkered brinkmanship.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 30^th, 2018.

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