Dangerously short-sighted

The decision by the American administration to shut Pakistani military officers out of training and educational programmes is one of the more alarming of recent times. It is part of the series of measures designed to pressure Pakistan to take more action against militants, with America being of the view that it does not and never has done enough in this respect. Given the sensitive nature of the decision there has been no official comment by either side, but officials on both sides have expressed concern at the chopping away of a key trust-building measure. Although little-publicised this has been an arrangement that has gone on for many years and Pakistan and American military forces have quietly cooperated to their mutual benefit, independently of the vagaries of the political weather. The law of unintended consequences immediately comes into play, and Pakistan will have to seek to enhance its military contacts with Russia and China both of which are going to be more than happy to deliver, eroding as it does American opportunities to influence Pakistan military minds. The money involved is peanuts — the value of the bilateral International Military Education and Training (IMET) programme is around $2.41 million — but losing it is going to have down the line consequences because all parties agreed that the programme paid dividends. It now disappears into the Trumpian waste bin. Earlier in the year the US announced plans to cancel around $2bn in security assistance to Pakistan, but it had been intimated that the IMET programme was exempt in large part because of American dependence on Pakistan to supply its troops in Afghanistan. Whether that will be reviewed and revised is now an open question, and given that the incoming government has already clearly signalled that it wants to improve ties with the US, it is a tricky conundrum. The IMET programme was one of the more effective and durable bilateral linkages, fostering relations between the respective militaries that would see both through testing times. China and probably to a greater degree Russia are now no longer waiting in the wings militarily, they are centrestage and for that Mr Trump has nobody to blame but himself.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 13^th, 2018.

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