Trump thumps Iran
Destabilising a regime with the intention of effecting changes in policy of that regime is risky
The world is — slowly — learning to adjust to the Trumpian style of foreign policy-making, which closely resembles the proverbial bull in a china shop. Within the last 24 hours the US has re-imposed a range of unilateral sanctions against Iran, bringing back into play the penalties that had been lifted under the multilateral nuclear agreement that Trump had walked away from in May 2018. The first round of sanctions is targeting access to US banknotes and industries such as cars and carpets. The second round clicks on in November and targets oil sales and is likely to have the effect of upping the level of international irritation with most things Trump.
Destabilising a regime with the intention of either effecting a change thereof or parts of the policies of that regime is a risky business. In this instance the US is not going to be able to force Iran to the table to re-negotiate the nuclear deal, in large part because Iran is of the position why should it? The other partners to the deal — Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the EU — are still on board and although some of their business interests are at hazard from US sanctions they look like staying there. The EU in particular and notwithstanding the shemozzle around the Brexit negotiations is steadfast as its diplomatic leader Federica Mogherina made clear saying that the EU was determined to protect European economic operators that have legitimate business with Iran.
The geopolitical pieces are on the move as America shifts towards isolationism and removes finesse from the foreign policy playbook, likewise subtlety. For Trump supporters he is delivering on campaign promises, for the rest of the world he is adding elements of destabilisation that are fraught with risk. The Iranian regime is unlikely to topple given that it has survived as long as it has. True there is internal disaffection triggered by a slump in the rial, street protests and anger at the political system that will eventually have to change — but none of this is a regime changer. Yet. Iran will ride with the punch for now. But clocks tick.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 8th, 2018.
Destabilising a regime with the intention of either effecting a change thereof or parts of the policies of that regime is a risky business. In this instance the US is not going to be able to force Iran to the table to re-negotiate the nuclear deal, in large part because Iran is of the position why should it? The other partners to the deal — Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the EU — are still on board and although some of their business interests are at hazard from US sanctions they look like staying there. The EU in particular and notwithstanding the shemozzle around the Brexit negotiations is steadfast as its diplomatic leader Federica Mogherina made clear saying that the EU was determined to protect European economic operators that have legitimate business with Iran.
The geopolitical pieces are on the move as America shifts towards isolationism and removes finesse from the foreign policy playbook, likewise subtlety. For Trump supporters he is delivering on campaign promises, for the rest of the world he is adding elements of destabilisation that are fraught with risk. The Iranian regime is unlikely to topple given that it has survived as long as it has. True there is internal disaffection triggered by a slump in the rial, street protests and anger at the political system that will eventually have to change — but none of this is a regime changer. Yet. Iran will ride with the punch for now. But clocks tick.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 8th, 2018.