A new political landscape in the city: Is MQM still a formidable force?
With 80% inactive local network, closed offices and internal differences, MQM plans to launch its campaign on July 1
The political scenario in Karachi changed after the divisions within the MQM. PHOTO: EXPRESS
KARACHI:
In the run-up to the 2018 general elections, the most frequently asked question is whether the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) - the winner of the majority seats for the last three decades - will be able to maintain its mandate on July 25?
The party is facing countless challenges, including internal differences, an inactive organisational network, workers and leaders joining other parties, lack of funds, the issues of arrested and missing workers and criticism for not solving problems despite having a local body mandate.
Will the party be able to win despite all these challenges will not be known before polling day.
The party seems to have decided to once again use the Muhajir card to regain its former mandate. For this, the party is introducing the slogan 'Vote should be for your own people'. A similar slogan, 'The mayor should be our own person', was used by the party in the 2015 local body elections. The party is not likely to agitate the issue of a new province in Sindh.
Discord in MQM-Pakistan ranks over award of tickets
It remains to be seen whether the Muhajir card will play any role in the party's success.
Meanwhile, MQM-London has announced boycotting the general election. It will be the first time that MQM-Pakistan is entering the election after disassociating itself from its founder Quaid.
The political scenario in Karachi changed after the divisions within the MQM.
MQM will face the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Tehreefk-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and other religious and political parties in the election, making it difficult for the party to maintain its dominance.
A process of the erosion of its vote bank seems to have started with the 2013 general election when PTI managed to secure substantial votes without any public contact campaign. The MQM attributes this shift in vote bank to the arrest of its workers and leaders during the Karachi operation. Many of them went into hiding, while the organisational set up of the party was made to crumble.
MQM, ANP, PPP used by conspirators to spew hatred: Mustafa Kamal
Besides this, two important MQM leaders, Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhawani, suddenly returned from abroad on March 3, 2016 and started new politics announcing disassociation with the MQM Quaid.
Later, they launched their own party, PSP, and a good number of MQM parliamentarians, leaders and workers joined this party. As PSP continued its journey, MQM suffered another setback after MQM Quaid's disputed speech of August 22, 2016.
Its backlash was devastating for the party and Dr Farooq Sattar, to salvage the party, announced its disassociation with Altaf Hussain and his policies.
MQM politics took another turn on November 8, 2017 when Dr Sattar and Kamal, in a joint press conference, announced to give up the individual names and symbols of their respective parties and do politics under a new name and symbol. However, their relationship lasted very briefly, coming to an end just after 24 hours.
Sattar granted bail in two cases
But this short-lived episode had its own reaction. Senior colleagues of Dr Sattar, including Dr Khalid Maqbool and Amir Khan, saw a villain in Dr Sattar and this led to further division of MQM into the Sattar-led PIB and Dr Maqbool-led Bahadurabad groups. The division brought nothing but failure to the party in the Senate election and it was able to get only one seat of Dr Farogh Nasim.
The rift between the two groups seemed to have settled down on June 15 when the PIB and Bahadurabad groups announced to bury their differences. In a press conference, Dr Sattar and Dr Maqbool declared they were one and will fight the election as one under the kite old symbol.
At present, 80% of MQM's organisational network in Karachi is in shambles and its offices have been closed down. Its political existence can only be felt in the form of local body representatives. It would not be less than a miracle that the party could take part in the election with its broken organisational structure.
Sources in the MQM said that they have tacit permission from the relevant authorities to open election offices and start election activities and public contact in the next 10 days.
After the new delimitations, National Assembly seats in Karachi have increased to 21 from 20 and Sindh Assembly seats to 44 from 42.
A source in the party said the position of PPP candidates is strong on the three NA seats from Malir, NA-236, NA-237 and NA-238. MQM does not seem to be winning from here, the source said, adding that in District West too MQM is not strong in two constituencies of NA-249 and NA-250.
The party source said MQM is finalising its strategy to secure District Korangi's NA-239, NA-240 and NA-241 seats, District East's NA-242, NA-243, NA-244 and NA-245 seats, District South's NA-247 seat, District West's NA-250, NA-251 and NA-252 seats and District Central's NA-253, NA-254, NA-255 and NA-256 seats. However, winning these seats won't be easy for the party as other parties have also fielded their candidates.
The source said that in the areas where the majority is Urdu-speaking, MQM will have to face PSP. Both the parties have MQM's electable leaders and workers of the past and majority of them are well-versed in election winning techniques. Therefore, getting votes in these areas also won't be easy for the MQM.
Observers believe that the election is very interesting for Karachi this time because a level-playing field is available for the contestants after the Karachi operation and all important parties are taking part in the polls. The voters will now decide which party is going to win, they believed, reasoning that since army personnel will be deployed at polling stations, it will be difficult for any party to rig the polls.
Some political analysts predict that the results in Karachi will be surprising with no party securing an absolute majority. There are chances of a divided mandate in Karachi, they said, adding that MQM success on many seats depends on the leadership, which should bury their differences and face the election with a united front. If the differences persist, the party may face its worst defeat, the analysts said.
Speaking to the Express News, MQM's spokesperson, Aminul Haq, insisted there were no differences within MQM at present and its mandate will not divide.
He claimed that his party will secure 14 to 15 NA seats and 30 or more provincial seats from Karachi. He said that MQM will start its election campaign from July 1 in Karachi.
"Currently, MQM does not intend on launching the campaign of a new province in Sindh," Haq confirmed, adding that MQM will have to face tough competition in Karachi because of the new delimitations and political situation.
In the run-up to the 2018 general elections, the most frequently asked question is whether the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) - the winner of the majority seats for the last three decades - will be able to maintain its mandate on July 25?
The party is facing countless challenges, including internal differences, an inactive organisational network, workers and leaders joining other parties, lack of funds, the issues of arrested and missing workers and criticism for not solving problems despite having a local body mandate.
Will the party be able to win despite all these challenges will not be known before polling day.
The party seems to have decided to once again use the Muhajir card to regain its former mandate. For this, the party is introducing the slogan 'Vote should be for your own people'. A similar slogan, 'The mayor should be our own person', was used by the party in the 2015 local body elections. The party is not likely to agitate the issue of a new province in Sindh.
Discord in MQM-Pakistan ranks over award of tickets
It remains to be seen whether the Muhajir card will play any role in the party's success.
Meanwhile, MQM-London has announced boycotting the general election. It will be the first time that MQM-Pakistan is entering the election after disassociating itself from its founder Quaid.
The political scenario in Karachi changed after the divisions within the MQM.
MQM will face the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Tehreefk-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and other religious and political parties in the election, making it difficult for the party to maintain its dominance.
A process of the erosion of its vote bank seems to have started with the 2013 general election when PTI managed to secure substantial votes without any public contact campaign. The MQM attributes this shift in vote bank to the arrest of its workers and leaders during the Karachi operation. Many of them went into hiding, while the organisational set up of the party was made to crumble.
MQM, ANP, PPP used by conspirators to spew hatred: Mustafa Kamal
Besides this, two important MQM leaders, Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhawani, suddenly returned from abroad on March 3, 2016 and started new politics announcing disassociation with the MQM Quaid.
Later, they launched their own party, PSP, and a good number of MQM parliamentarians, leaders and workers joined this party. As PSP continued its journey, MQM suffered another setback after MQM Quaid's disputed speech of August 22, 2016.
Its backlash was devastating for the party and Dr Farooq Sattar, to salvage the party, announced its disassociation with Altaf Hussain and his policies.
MQM politics took another turn on November 8, 2017 when Dr Sattar and Kamal, in a joint press conference, announced to give up the individual names and symbols of their respective parties and do politics under a new name and symbol. However, their relationship lasted very briefly, coming to an end just after 24 hours.
Sattar granted bail in two cases
But this short-lived episode had its own reaction. Senior colleagues of Dr Sattar, including Dr Khalid Maqbool and Amir Khan, saw a villain in Dr Sattar and this led to further division of MQM into the Sattar-led PIB and Dr Maqbool-led Bahadurabad groups. The division brought nothing but failure to the party in the Senate election and it was able to get only one seat of Dr Farogh Nasim.
The rift between the two groups seemed to have settled down on June 15 when the PIB and Bahadurabad groups announced to bury their differences. In a press conference, Dr Sattar and Dr Maqbool declared they were one and will fight the election as one under the kite old symbol.
At present, 80% of MQM's organisational network in Karachi is in shambles and its offices have been closed down. Its political existence can only be felt in the form of local body representatives. It would not be less than a miracle that the party could take part in the election with its broken organisational structure.
Sources in the MQM said that they have tacit permission from the relevant authorities to open election offices and start election activities and public contact in the next 10 days.
After the new delimitations, National Assembly seats in Karachi have increased to 21 from 20 and Sindh Assembly seats to 44 from 42.
A source in the party said the position of PPP candidates is strong on the three NA seats from Malir, NA-236, NA-237 and NA-238. MQM does not seem to be winning from here, the source said, adding that in District West too MQM is not strong in two constituencies of NA-249 and NA-250.
The party source said MQM is finalising its strategy to secure District Korangi's NA-239, NA-240 and NA-241 seats, District East's NA-242, NA-243, NA-244 and NA-245 seats, District South's NA-247 seat, District West's NA-250, NA-251 and NA-252 seats and District Central's NA-253, NA-254, NA-255 and NA-256 seats. However, winning these seats won't be easy for the party as other parties have also fielded their candidates.
The source said that in the areas where the majority is Urdu-speaking, MQM will have to face PSP. Both the parties have MQM's electable leaders and workers of the past and majority of them are well-versed in election winning techniques. Therefore, getting votes in these areas also won't be easy for the MQM.
Observers believe that the election is very interesting for Karachi this time because a level-playing field is available for the contestants after the Karachi operation and all important parties are taking part in the polls. The voters will now decide which party is going to win, they believed, reasoning that since army personnel will be deployed at polling stations, it will be difficult for any party to rig the polls.
Some political analysts predict that the results in Karachi will be surprising with no party securing an absolute majority. There are chances of a divided mandate in Karachi, they said, adding that MQM success on many seats depends on the leadership, which should bury their differences and face the election with a united front. If the differences persist, the party may face its worst defeat, the analysts said.
Speaking to the Express News, MQM's spokesperson, Aminul Haq, insisted there were no differences within MQM at present and its mandate will not divide.
He claimed that his party will secure 14 to 15 NA seats and 30 or more provincial seats from Karachi. He said that MQM will start its election campaign from July 1 in Karachi.
"Currently, MQM does not intend on launching the campaign of a new province in Sindh," Haq confirmed, adding that MQM will have to face tough competition in Karachi because of the new delimitations and political situation.