Public opinion and loud minority
Spiral of silence theory best explains public opinion formation
The writer is a political, economy and security analyst and a governance and public policy practitioner. He can be contacted at razapkhan@yahoo.com
Public opinion is critically significant for any democratic political system, even more in times of national elections. Pakistan, too, is going to have nationwide elections soon, with public opinion having an important bearing on the poll results.
Formation of public opinion is a complex process and many macro-sociological, political-economic, psycho-social and individual-psychological factors contribute to it. Therefore, it is not easy to understand the dynamics of public opinion formation. While here it would be too difficult to dilate upon all the factors and forces which play their role in public opinion formation one important theory of public opinion is important to be discussed — the spiral of silence.
Propounded by the German sociologist Noelle-Neumann, the basic premise of the theory is that on a controversial issue people who think their opinion is in minority usually chose not to express it. This tendency to remain silent leads to remaining unheard. Here it is important to note that mostly people look to mass media to find the extant, prevalent and dominant public opinion. Perception of the climate surrounding the individual’s opinion will determine whether or not they speak out and diverse media coverage could help overcome the spiral of silence. Three characteristic of media that combine to produce effects on public opinion, according to Noelle-Neumann, are cumulation, ubiquity and consonance. In short, information media plays an influential role in the formation of public opinion.
Apart from Pakistani working media professionals, who are also becoming a new elite, the Pakistani media orientations have always been elitist. Though historically in print media people’s voices have been heard, thanks to the ideological journalists but the overall domination over the media has been of the rich and powerful. The social and political elite of Pakistan have had their own class, ideology of luxury and way of life and for this they have had to have a firm control over the country’s political arena. This could be achieved by decisively influencing the formation of public opinion. Therefore, whatever exploitative policies they thought to be ‘correct’ because they have been in line with their vested interests, they imposed it on the public by presenting it as common sense and most ‘logical’ to the entire people of Pakistan. Here the role of owners and gatekeepers, those who control the contents of media, become extremely important. Here they have to decide whether to act in public interest, which media ought to, or in the vested interest of the political and social elite.
The majority of people in Pakistan though have disapproved of the policies of social and political elite when sensing the pseudo-social environment or the dominant but cosmetic public opinion have been keeping a silence, in the process inflicting irreparable loss on the people’s interest. The upshot of this process has been the creation of loud minorities that have been the master of destiny of people of this country, while the majority has remained silent. This is very true of the silent majority to which many people refer in Pakistan. Consequently and firstly, a real democratic culture could not be established till this very date in Pakistan. Secondly, there has been widespread political instability and polarisation. Thirdly, no genuine national political forces could emerge. Fourthly, a consensual public opinion could not be evolved even on a single issue. Fifthly, there has been superficial integration of the country while the centrifugal forces are becoming stronger with the passage of time. Sixthly, Pakistani foreign policy has never been need-specific and reflective of public aspirations. Seventhly, there has been large-scale frustration among the people with little hope in the future of the country. Eighthly, extensive development has never been the top priority of successive governments resulting in mass illiteracy and poverty. This in turn resulted in spread of extremism and formation of mafias in every sector of public and social life. Ninth, the economic policies have never been people-specific but elite-specific resulting in lack of job opportunities and rampaging inflation with the urge to become rich overnight even by unfair means.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 23rd, 2018.
Formation of public opinion is a complex process and many macro-sociological, political-economic, psycho-social and individual-psychological factors contribute to it. Therefore, it is not easy to understand the dynamics of public opinion formation. While here it would be too difficult to dilate upon all the factors and forces which play their role in public opinion formation one important theory of public opinion is important to be discussed — the spiral of silence.
Propounded by the German sociologist Noelle-Neumann, the basic premise of the theory is that on a controversial issue people who think their opinion is in minority usually chose not to express it. This tendency to remain silent leads to remaining unheard. Here it is important to note that mostly people look to mass media to find the extant, prevalent and dominant public opinion. Perception of the climate surrounding the individual’s opinion will determine whether or not they speak out and diverse media coverage could help overcome the spiral of silence. Three characteristic of media that combine to produce effects on public opinion, according to Noelle-Neumann, are cumulation, ubiquity and consonance. In short, information media plays an influential role in the formation of public opinion.
Apart from Pakistani working media professionals, who are also becoming a new elite, the Pakistani media orientations have always been elitist. Though historically in print media people’s voices have been heard, thanks to the ideological journalists but the overall domination over the media has been of the rich and powerful. The social and political elite of Pakistan have had their own class, ideology of luxury and way of life and for this they have had to have a firm control over the country’s political arena. This could be achieved by decisively influencing the formation of public opinion. Therefore, whatever exploitative policies they thought to be ‘correct’ because they have been in line with their vested interests, they imposed it on the public by presenting it as common sense and most ‘logical’ to the entire people of Pakistan. Here the role of owners and gatekeepers, those who control the contents of media, become extremely important. Here they have to decide whether to act in public interest, which media ought to, or in the vested interest of the political and social elite.
The majority of people in Pakistan though have disapproved of the policies of social and political elite when sensing the pseudo-social environment or the dominant but cosmetic public opinion have been keeping a silence, in the process inflicting irreparable loss on the people’s interest. The upshot of this process has been the creation of loud minorities that have been the master of destiny of people of this country, while the majority has remained silent. This is very true of the silent majority to which many people refer in Pakistan. Consequently and firstly, a real democratic culture could not be established till this very date in Pakistan. Secondly, there has been widespread political instability and polarisation. Thirdly, no genuine national political forces could emerge. Fourthly, a consensual public opinion could not be evolved even on a single issue. Fifthly, there has been superficial integration of the country while the centrifugal forces are becoming stronger with the passage of time. Sixthly, Pakistani foreign policy has never been need-specific and reflective of public aspirations. Seventhly, there has been large-scale frustration among the people with little hope in the future of the country. Eighthly, extensive development has never been the top priority of successive governments resulting in mass illiteracy and poverty. This in turn resulted in spread of extremism and formation of mafias in every sector of public and social life. Ninth, the economic policies have never been people-specific but elite-specific resulting in lack of job opportunities and rampaging inflation with the urge to become rich overnight even by unfair means.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 23rd, 2018.