The Shehbaz option

And just like that, he is thrust into the saviour’s seat. Can Shehbaz Sharif save his brother, his family, and his party?

Politics is in a whirl. With each passing day, the situation is getting more murky, more uncertain and a tad more dangerous. The fragile democratic consensus — if it ever existed — is under tremendous strain. If statements of powerful men are a reflection of their intent, and if their intent is a precursor of their impending actions, then be afraid. Be very afraid.

Trust Nawaz Sharif to wreck the best laid plans. Now why could he have not just gone to London on a one-way ticket when the Supreme Court disqualified him? Why could he not have taken the court judgment as a massive hint that he was no longer required to hang around in Pakistan? Why did he have to make things so much more difficult for everyone? Why and why?

Eight months later, he’s still around. He’s still relevant. He’s still fighting. And this complicates matters.

Dharna was Round 1. Nawaz won. Panama/JIT/Disqualification was Round 2. Nawaz lost. July ’17-March ’18 fightback was Round 3. Nawaz won. And now begins Round 4.

As the trial in the Accountability Court lumbers towards a conclusion, the question of “what if Nawaz is jailed” has started to resonate with greater force — and perhaps nowhere more so than inside the PML-N. Seen from the vantage point of the party cadres, the months since July last year have been non-stop sequences of one nerve-wracking episode after another. In July they thought they and the party were done for. By December they felt all was not lost. The victory in Lodhran convinced them the tide was turning in their favour. The revolt in Balochistan and the subsequent defeat in the Senate now is a signal to many that their troubles are far from over.

There is restlessness within the party — a feeling that the gamble by their leader is too audacious, too rash, too foolhardy. In the contest between the head and the wall, many feel, the head does not stand much of a chance. So there are whispers. There are hushed suggestions. Perhaps even a hint of subdued rebellion against the dominant narrative.

Some within the PML-N may interpret the fluid situation as a signal to pack up and head for greener pastures like the PTI. But many may not have the luxury of this option. For them this is the party, and the party has a solid vote bank. This vote bank is not going to evaporate into thin air just because someone wants it to. The diehards within the party know they sit over an electoral goldmine — but the gold from the mine has to be mined properly. Prudently.

Prudence in the PML-N has a name: Shehbaz Sharif.

In the immediate aftermath of his elder brother’s disqualification, Shehbaz was on the wrong side of the narrative. He was hesitant to embrace the ‘slash-and-burn’ approach adopted by Nawaz and Maryam and so he found himself put to pasture as the father-daughter duo turbo-charged their defiance mode. Shehbaz, it seemed, had become almost irrelevant in the new PMLN scheme of things.



Not anymore. Today Shehbaz has a number of factors going in his favour: 1) He formally leads the party, and informally is the only person after Nawaz who can command a near-consensus within the rank and file; 2) He carries the Sharif brand through lineage which the likes of Shahid Khaqan Abbasi do not; 3) He is doer-in-chief within the party and can boast a record of solid governance which no one else in the party can match; 4) He has always had a good working relationship with the establishment and can attempt to bridge the yawning gap that exists in the current situation; 5) He can hold the party together and perhaps even assuage the concerns of dissidents like Chaudhry Nisar; and 6) He can effectively lead the election campaign in case Nawaz is convicted and incarcerated.

Would this require Nawaz to disown his narrative? No, not really. Exercising the Shehbaz option means a realisation that there’s a time to fight and there’s a time to talk — and the time to talk is here. Shehbaz just issued a statement on these lines on Friday when he said the situation demanded that politicians, generals and judges initiated a dialogue to find a solution to the problematic situation. Nawaz too appears to have toned down his rhetoric a notch. Shehbaz now has to walk a tight rope between carrying his brother’s narrative and yet engaging with the establishment to find some common ground for a negotiated settlement — the contours of which remain vague.

In essence then, the challenge for Shehbaz boils down to this: a) hold the party together and give confidence to the electables, their odds of victory are better with the PML-N than the PTI; b) build bridges — howsoever tenuous — with the establishment and persuade the high command that a state of war is never better than a state of peace.

But peace at what cost? This one question will determine how much space Shehbaz gets from his elder brother to play the role he needs to play in order to save his brother, his family and his party. Does the cost mean the final ouster of Nawaz? In practical terms, Nawaz is already out. He cannot contest the elections and he cannot be the prime minister for the foreseeable future. He is the ‘Quaid for life’ of the party but that’s about it. The critical factor then is this: will he remain the last word in party affairs and in government affairs if his party wins the elections?

This is a weighty question whose answer remains elusive. What is less elusive is the fact that if the Shehbaz option has to be successful, Nawaz will need to take a few steps back and give his younger brother political space. If Nawaz can come to a conclusion that the party and its vote bank are big enough to accommodate his younger brother and his daughter, Nawaz can justify to himself loosening his grip on the reins and unleashing the Shehbaz option with full force.

Let the next round begin.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 25^th, 2018.

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