Politics in Punjab
Three enduring facts about politics in Punjab that are unlikely to change in the coming years, and perhaps decades
The writer is a professor of political science at LUMS, Lahore. His recent book is Imagining Pakistan: Modernism, State and the Politics of Islamic Revival (Lexington Books, 2017)
There are three enduring facts about politics in Punjab that are unlikely to change in the coming years, and perhaps decades. First, the numbers in parliament that Punjab holds and which determine the fortunes of political parties and their leaders. Since Punjab is the centre of power, it will be the primary arena of contest in the next elections. At the risk of reductionism, let me say this — whichever leader or party dominates this province will dominate politics at the centre. This is the logic of electoral demography, but with a caveat that Punjab remains politically coherent, meaning that its parliamentary constituencies are not divided among the major political parties—principally between the PTI and the PML-N. In that case, smaller factions and parties will play a decisive role in forming a majority coalition.
Second, an important political reality of Punjab drawn from the electoral trends of the past is that it has generally gone as a whole with one or another party. This may contradict the above speculation that its mandate may be divided. The electoral transitions have generally been between the Pakistan Peoples Party and one or another Muslim League. The political wave or a swing better explains the political culture of the province.
Third, feudal political families are the centrepiece of Punjab politics. Divided and competing, as they are, they are nominated by the political parties to contest elections. The culture of power, privilege and patronage at local levels makes it necessary for the feudal families to stay in politics, no matter what the cost, and stay closer to the ruling party. No matter how strong their individual political base, their connection to power since colonial times gives an edge over the rival. As staying in power is a cultural as well as a material imperative, political loyalties remain fluid. Power politics trumps the principle, ideology and even democracy itself. The political waves in Punjab have continuously shaped and reshaped political shifts among the electable political figures and families.
Bearing these facts in mind, what prospects one can speculate for the three major political parties — the PPP, the PML-N and the PTI? Considering the PPP as a major political party in Punjab sounds like a joke, but it still maintains a good bunch of leftover feudal families within its fold, or those that have benefited from its rule hugely and have become overly identified with it. Sadly, for the PPP, its electoral base has been shrinking, and there is hardly any hope of its revival in Punjab. Its performance in NA-120, Lahore explains its position at the grassroots level. It appears to be at the lowest level of popularity ever in the largest province; it has wiped itself out by corruption, poor governance and leadership problems.
It goes to the credit of Nawaz Sharif to revive, unite and popularise the perpetually-fragmented Muslim League, after its questionable capture from the late Muhammad Khan Junejo. Parties in Pakistan’s cultural context have very little grassroots organisation yet, hitherto, they have functioned as inter-elite networks, which the PML-N is. Even winning a historic two-thirds majority in 1997s, it failed to maintain its solidarity when military ruler Pervez Musharraf took power. It split along many lines.
Today, the party is at a cross-roads mainly because of its dynastic politics and apparent split within the party over the issue of succession; in many ways akin to succession in the monarchical ruling families. Its coherence or split will determine the outcome of electoral politics in Punjab. Given the state of disarray it is currently in, the PML-N may not be able to withstand the political wave of the PTI in Punjab.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 1st, 2017.
Second, an important political reality of Punjab drawn from the electoral trends of the past is that it has generally gone as a whole with one or another party. This may contradict the above speculation that its mandate may be divided. The electoral transitions have generally been between the Pakistan Peoples Party and one or another Muslim League. The political wave or a swing better explains the political culture of the province.
Third, feudal political families are the centrepiece of Punjab politics. Divided and competing, as they are, they are nominated by the political parties to contest elections. The culture of power, privilege and patronage at local levels makes it necessary for the feudal families to stay in politics, no matter what the cost, and stay closer to the ruling party. No matter how strong their individual political base, their connection to power since colonial times gives an edge over the rival. As staying in power is a cultural as well as a material imperative, political loyalties remain fluid. Power politics trumps the principle, ideology and even democracy itself. The political waves in Punjab have continuously shaped and reshaped political shifts among the electable political figures and families.
Bearing these facts in mind, what prospects one can speculate for the three major political parties — the PPP, the PML-N and the PTI? Considering the PPP as a major political party in Punjab sounds like a joke, but it still maintains a good bunch of leftover feudal families within its fold, or those that have benefited from its rule hugely and have become overly identified with it. Sadly, for the PPP, its electoral base has been shrinking, and there is hardly any hope of its revival in Punjab. Its performance in NA-120, Lahore explains its position at the grassroots level. It appears to be at the lowest level of popularity ever in the largest province; it has wiped itself out by corruption, poor governance and leadership problems.
It goes to the credit of Nawaz Sharif to revive, unite and popularise the perpetually-fragmented Muslim League, after its questionable capture from the late Muhammad Khan Junejo. Parties in Pakistan’s cultural context have very little grassroots organisation yet, hitherto, they have functioned as inter-elite networks, which the PML-N is. Even winning a historic two-thirds majority in 1997s, it failed to maintain its solidarity when military ruler Pervez Musharraf took power. It split along many lines.
Today, the party is at a cross-roads mainly because of its dynastic politics and apparent split within the party over the issue of succession; in many ways akin to succession in the monarchical ruling families. Its coherence or split will determine the outcome of electoral politics in Punjab. Given the state of disarray it is currently in, the PML-N may not be able to withstand the political wave of the PTI in Punjab.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 1st, 2017.