America’s ‘dangerous game’

The Pakistani nation is notorious for its susceptibility to conspiracy theories. One such theory doing the rounds for many years has been that the US objective to invade Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks was not to fight militancy but to keep China and Russia under check. A recent addition to this conspiracy theory is that Washington wants to create instability in Pakistan because it does not want CPEC to succeed.

Realists, however, do not subscribe to such far-fetched ideas. They believe that the US goal is only to stabilise Afghanistan and their military presence is not meant for halting China’s march towards leading the world. However, for once realists appear to have been proven wrong while conspiracy theorists stand vindicated — thanks to the Trump administration.

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Defence Secretary James Mattis went public with his country’s opposition to China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Secretary Mattis said the US opposed the OBOR policy in principle because in a globalised world, there were many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating One Belt, One Road. And it opposed the one going through Pakistan also because it passed through a disputed territory.

The move was significant since the previous US administration never voiced their opposition to OBOR though they might be working behind the scenes to scuttle the Chinese plan. But what has prompted the Trump administration to publicly oppose CPEC knowing well that such an approach would further strengthen public opinion in Pakistan that the US can never be our trustworthy ally? The opposition to the multibillion-dollar project appears to be part of the new strategy Trump unveiled for Afghanistan and South Asia in August.

The US administration has realised that Pakistan is unlikely to change its current strategic approach even if Washington resorts to economic sanctions or deprive the country of major non-Nato ally status. US officials must have concluded that Pakistan can survive without American money. In this scenario the US wants to raise the cost for Pakistan if it does not break its alleged nexus with certain militant groups. Hence, the US’s new approach that envisages a greater role for India in Afghanistan and opposition to CPEC is something that will surely create ripples in Pakistan.

The short-term US objective may be to browbeat Pakistan to ‘do more’ in the fight against terrorism but the long-term plan aims at China. The US is aware of the fact that Pakistan is crucial for the success of China’s OBOR initiative. The US defence secretary clearly stated that Washington would not allow China to dictate terms. This means Pakistan must brace itself for daunting security challenges. The US and India will certainly use all available means both overt and covert to disrupt China’s ambitious plan to connect the economies of over 70 countries. Pakistan has already accused India of funding and supporting groups such as the TTP and its affiliates. The fear is that this proxy war may further exacerbate given America’s new position on CPEC.

At a time when there is greater emphasis on not using non-state actors as proxies, the current situation may force regional players to do exactly the opposite. Questions are being raised as to how Da’ish has gained a significant foothold in Afghanistan right under the watchful eyes of the US military.

In fact, other regional players like Russia, China and Iran have already sensed this sinister plan. That is why they are reaching out to the Afghan Taliban. Reports even indicate that these countries are backing the Taliban. Their support to the insurgent group is not out of any love for their ideology but to preempt the US plan. These developments apparently have put this region on a confrontational path. But this is a dangerous game whose cost may be too high for all the competing players to endure.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 17^th, 2017.

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