Trump and South Asia
Pakistan needs to adjust to this challenging environment
The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan. The views expressed here are his own
Indian Prime Minister Modi’s recent US visit indicates the direction of Trump’s policy towards not only India, but South Asia as a whole. The ongoing review of the administration’s Afghan policy will also complement this strategy. This will have far-reaching implications for Pakistan.
It is not surprising that Trump reaffirmed the partnership with India which has steadily grown since the Bush and Obama administrations. He has gone even further by accepting India’s regional hegemonic ambitions as articulated in the Indo-US joint statement that “as responsible stewards in the Indo-Pacific region” the “close partnership” between them “is central to peace and stability in the region”. The underlying purpose is to use India to contain China in the vain hope of ensuring US global supremacy. For China, whose growth every three years is the size of the Indian economy, India is merely an American stooge. But for Pakistan, the Indo-US partnership poses an existential threat.
Equally ominous for Pakistan is the emerging US policy on Afghanistan, for which the US is increasingly relying on India. Trump not only “welcomed Indian contributions to Afghan stability and security”, but recognised the “importance of their respective strategic partnerships with Afghanistan” and agreed to “continue close consultations and cooperation in support of Afghanistan’s future”. According to The Hindu newspaper, there is also speculation that the US wants India to contribute 15,000 troops to fight in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, American generals continue to seek a military victory against the Taliban and have asked for 4000 more troops, even though after 15 years of fighting at full strength they have failed in this endeavour. While rejecting Pakistan’s advice to pursue a political solution, the American administration, Congress, media and think tanks, have used Pakistan as a scapegoat, blaming Washington’s failure on Islamabad’s alleged support to the Taliban. To cover up for its own failures, Kabul is happy to shift the blame on to Islamabad. The Indians, who never miss an opportunity to pillory Pakistan, have joined this chorus.
The Indo-US joint statement is consistent with earlier American allegations accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorism against India and Afghanistan, while completely ignoring the burden of terrorism on Pakistan, including the Indo-Afghan support for the TTP and Baloch terrorists. Trump referred to India as a victim of terrorism in his recent speech in Saudi Arabia. During his April visit to Pakistan, National Security Adviser McMaster asked Pakistan “not to use proxies that engage in violence”. In their Congressional testimonies in May, Director for National Intelligence Coates, and Defence Intelligence Agency Stewart repeated allegations about “Pakistan-based terrorists”. Most venomous of all has been Lisa Curtis, NSC Director for South and Central Asia. In December 2014, she wrote that “Pakistan continues to support terrorist proxies in the region under the protection of its nuclear umbrella in order to keep both Afghanistan and India off balance”. Recently, she co-authored a report recommending sanctions on Islamabad if it did not end its alleged sponsorship of terrorism.
However, such allegations will not change ground realities. In Afghanistan, the US squandered the opportunity to win hearts and minds by exclusive reliance on use of force and patronage of corrupt, inefficient and duplicitous Afghan leaders which has enabled the Taliban to regroup and recapture almost 50% of Afghan territory. Meanwhile, the rampant proliferation of drugs, weapons and terrorist groups are all contributing to the anarchy in Afghanistan.
In India, the Modi government’s Hindu extremist policies of persecuting Muslims and other minorities while brutally repressing the freedom struggle in occupied Kashmir are the real causes for mayhem, rather than Pakistan’s supposed support for terrorism. Instead of restraining India, the US is actually aiding and abetting Indian aggression and military build-up. This will inevitably breed regional instability.
Pakistan needs to adjust to this challenging environment. A stronger strategic partnership with China is crucial to jointly respond to the Indo-US threat to our shared security interests. CPEC provides an opportunity not just for economic gain but for strategic leverage. Given the growing convergence of interests between Pakistan and Russia, such as over CPEC and Afghanistan, we should also further expand our relations with Moscow. With such rebalancing, Pakistan would acquire greater flexibility in its relations with the US.
While avoiding confrontation with the Americans, we should become more opportunistic and transactional, just as they are with us. The US still needs Pakistan’s cooperation in counter-terrorism and in Afghanistan for which there must be a quid pro quo. This should not only involve adequate compensation for use of our infrastructure but active US commitment to end Indo-Afghan sponsored terrorism against Pakistan. We should also be clear that while we remain ready to facilitate a political solution in Afghanistan, we cannot be party to any elusive military option as this would undermine Pakistan’s long-term regional interests. Most importantly, we should continue with our efforts to ensure strategic stability in South Asia by maintaining credible deterrence against India.
While the Indo-US partnership against China will continue, Washington cannot ignore Pakistan’s strategic value for its interests in South, Central and West Asia. Not only does Pakistan occupy a pivotal regional location but it is also a nuclear weapon state with one of the strongest armed forces in this neighbourhood that is successfully tackling terrorism while holding hostile Indian and Afghan forces at bay. It is, therefore, a critical factor for security and stability in this vast but volatile region. We should use these assets to our advantage.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 4th, 2017.
It is not surprising that Trump reaffirmed the partnership with India which has steadily grown since the Bush and Obama administrations. He has gone even further by accepting India’s regional hegemonic ambitions as articulated in the Indo-US joint statement that “as responsible stewards in the Indo-Pacific region” the “close partnership” between them “is central to peace and stability in the region”. The underlying purpose is to use India to contain China in the vain hope of ensuring US global supremacy. For China, whose growth every three years is the size of the Indian economy, India is merely an American stooge. But for Pakistan, the Indo-US partnership poses an existential threat.
Equally ominous for Pakistan is the emerging US policy on Afghanistan, for which the US is increasingly relying on India. Trump not only “welcomed Indian contributions to Afghan stability and security”, but recognised the “importance of their respective strategic partnerships with Afghanistan” and agreed to “continue close consultations and cooperation in support of Afghanistan’s future”. According to The Hindu newspaper, there is also speculation that the US wants India to contribute 15,000 troops to fight in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, American generals continue to seek a military victory against the Taliban and have asked for 4000 more troops, even though after 15 years of fighting at full strength they have failed in this endeavour. While rejecting Pakistan’s advice to pursue a political solution, the American administration, Congress, media and think tanks, have used Pakistan as a scapegoat, blaming Washington’s failure on Islamabad’s alleged support to the Taliban. To cover up for its own failures, Kabul is happy to shift the blame on to Islamabad. The Indians, who never miss an opportunity to pillory Pakistan, have joined this chorus.
The Indo-US joint statement is consistent with earlier American allegations accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorism against India and Afghanistan, while completely ignoring the burden of terrorism on Pakistan, including the Indo-Afghan support for the TTP and Baloch terrorists. Trump referred to India as a victim of terrorism in his recent speech in Saudi Arabia. During his April visit to Pakistan, National Security Adviser McMaster asked Pakistan “not to use proxies that engage in violence”. In their Congressional testimonies in May, Director for National Intelligence Coates, and Defence Intelligence Agency Stewart repeated allegations about “Pakistan-based terrorists”. Most venomous of all has been Lisa Curtis, NSC Director for South and Central Asia. In December 2014, she wrote that “Pakistan continues to support terrorist proxies in the region under the protection of its nuclear umbrella in order to keep both Afghanistan and India off balance”. Recently, she co-authored a report recommending sanctions on Islamabad if it did not end its alleged sponsorship of terrorism.
However, such allegations will not change ground realities. In Afghanistan, the US squandered the opportunity to win hearts and minds by exclusive reliance on use of force and patronage of corrupt, inefficient and duplicitous Afghan leaders which has enabled the Taliban to regroup and recapture almost 50% of Afghan territory. Meanwhile, the rampant proliferation of drugs, weapons and terrorist groups are all contributing to the anarchy in Afghanistan.
In India, the Modi government’s Hindu extremist policies of persecuting Muslims and other minorities while brutally repressing the freedom struggle in occupied Kashmir are the real causes for mayhem, rather than Pakistan’s supposed support for terrorism. Instead of restraining India, the US is actually aiding and abetting Indian aggression and military build-up. This will inevitably breed regional instability.
Pakistan needs to adjust to this challenging environment. A stronger strategic partnership with China is crucial to jointly respond to the Indo-US threat to our shared security interests. CPEC provides an opportunity not just for economic gain but for strategic leverage. Given the growing convergence of interests between Pakistan and Russia, such as over CPEC and Afghanistan, we should also further expand our relations with Moscow. With such rebalancing, Pakistan would acquire greater flexibility in its relations with the US.
While avoiding confrontation with the Americans, we should become more opportunistic and transactional, just as they are with us. The US still needs Pakistan’s cooperation in counter-terrorism and in Afghanistan for which there must be a quid pro quo. This should not only involve adequate compensation for use of our infrastructure but active US commitment to end Indo-Afghan sponsored terrorism against Pakistan. We should also be clear that while we remain ready to facilitate a political solution in Afghanistan, we cannot be party to any elusive military option as this would undermine Pakistan’s long-term regional interests. Most importantly, we should continue with our efforts to ensure strategic stability in South Asia by maintaining credible deterrence against India.
While the Indo-US partnership against China will continue, Washington cannot ignore Pakistan’s strategic value for its interests in South, Central and West Asia. Not only does Pakistan occupy a pivotal regional location but it is also a nuclear weapon state with one of the strongest armed forces in this neighbourhood that is successfully tackling terrorism while holding hostile Indian and Afghan forces at bay. It is, therefore, a critical factor for security and stability in this vast but volatile region. We should use these assets to our advantage.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 4th, 2017.