Rs1.64tr earmarked for debt servicing

A third of money to account for settling foreign loans, paying interest on bank loans

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s debt burden is on an unrelenting upward trajectory. For the upcoming financial year 2017-18, the government has earmarked a whopping Rs1.64 trillion -- almost one-third of the country’s entire money -- to service its overall debt.

While announcing the budget on Friday, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said the Rs1.64 trillion figure includes repayment of foreign loans as well as payment of interest on the huge borrowing made from commercial banks.

The heavy burden of servicing public debt has made the much-needed fiscal adjustment both difficult and disorderly. Yet it’s not getting the same attention as it deserves.



What’s more, recent export figures point to what could be the start of a significant widening in the current account deficit, which will only add to the pressure on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. This would leave the country vulnerable to the whims of foreign donors -- i.e. those funding the debt.

During the outgoing fiscal year, the government had spent Rs1.8 trillion on public debt retirement and interest payments.

The overall expenditure during FY2017-18 is estimated at Rs5103.8 billion out of which current expenditure is Rs3763.7 billion and development expenditure is Rs1340.1 billion. Out of the total current expenditure, the government will spend Rs1.36 trillion on mark-up on domestic and public debt.



The government will spend Rs1.23 trillion on mark-up on domestic debt whereas Rs132 billion will be spent to clear mark-up on foreign debt. Of the total current expenditure, the government will spend Rs286.6 billon to repay foreign loans during FY2017-18.

The government had set a target of Rs1.8 trillion during the outgoing financial year, but the target was revised upwards to Rs1.86 trillion due to increase in borrowing.

Economists believe even though the government has been boasting of increasing foreign exchange reserves, pressure on the reserves will continue to rise due to the huge debt-servicing requirement in the future on account of CPEC-related projects.



They are of the view that the government will be seeking more foreign loans to retire public debt in the future and the economy will not be able to bear the burden of the debt piled up as a result.

Economic assistance

According to the budget document, the government has estimated an increase of Rs837.8 billion in foreign assistance during FY2017-18 as against the outgoing fiscal year’s target of Rs819.6 billion, which was later revised upward to Rs996.28 billion – with the rise attributed to loans from commercial banks.

External resources for FY2017-18 have been projected at Rs836.8 billion which is lower than the revised estimates of the ongoing financial year but higher than the budget estimates for FY2016-17.

Under the head of loans, the government plans to increase loans to Rs810.7 billion against estimates of Rs796.7 billion for 2016-17, which were later revised up to Rs971.6 billion due to increase in borrowing from commercial banks.



The government has budgeted Rs27.08 billion under the head of grants for the next fiscal year as against Rs22.82 billion budgeted for 2016-17, which was later revised upward to Rs24.68 billion.

From sovereign bonds, the government had estimated Rs105.5 billion for the ongoing financial year but was unable to see these bonds mature. Therefore, no proceeds were received under this head. The government has no hopes for these bonds to mature during the next financial year.

The government has estimated Rs105.5 billion from Sukuk Bond against estimates of Rs79.12 billion for the ongoing financial year. From Islamic Development Bank, the government has budgeted Rs163.52 billion as against Rs47.6 billion for the outgoing fiscal year, which was later revised up to Rs61.25 billion.



The government has budgeted Rs105.5 billion from commercial banks against Rs211.52 billion which were later revised upwards to Rs389.13 billion due to increase in borrowing.