Simmering Syria

The wave of protests that has swept the Arab world has already claimed the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. Libya, thanks to the intransigence of Qaddafi and US military might, is likely to be the next domino to fall. Improbable as this sounds, the Baathist regime of Bashar alAssad in Syria could find itself cast out in the wilderness too. Assad made the classic dictator’s mistake: He started killing his own people just because they had the temerity to protest against his rule. The hub of the anti-Assad protests has been Daraa, a city about a 100 kilometres south of Damascus. It began last week, when a small protest at the Omari mosque was harshly dealt with by Syrian security officials who started wantonly firing at the protestors. Since then, the Omari mosque has been at the centre of the protest movement, with thousands of protestors being shot at and tear-gassed daily. The Assad regime is now starting to show signs that it is faltering. After the unprecedented protests, his regime, which is unused to offering liberty and concessions, offered more freedom to the local press and an increase in the salaries of public employees. He also said that he may be willing to consider lifting the emergency laws under which Syria has been ruled for nearly 50 years. Obviously, Assad has learned nothing from his fellow Arab despots, all of whom have tried last-ditch reforms to save their rule. Such concessions are seen as a sign of weakness, not kindness, and so it is no surprise that the Syrian people have rejected them.

International pressure is slowly being exerted on Syria, but with the West occupied in fighting an air war in Libya, there is every chance that Assad will be able to wait the protestors out, with more violence if necessary. Regionally, Assad can rely on the support of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon while keeping a wary eye on the anti-Baathist Saudi Arabia. But the fact that Assad should be able to survive does not mean that he will survive. If there is one thing we have learned in the Middle East this year, it is that predictions are futile.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 26^th, 2011.