Afghan expectations

Yet another attempt is under way to resolve some of the difficulties that beset the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The British on March 15 hosted a trilateral moot in London attended by the PM’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, the Afghan National Security Adviser, Haneef Atmar, and the UK National Security Adviser, Mark Lyall-Grant. All three are ‘old hands’ when it comes to matters Afghan and they will be seeking a resolution to the dispute that has seen the official border crossings between both nations closed down to the distress of thousands on both sides. The meeting hence is a positive development, but caution must be observed in respect of possible outcomes given the complexity of the task. A closed border hurts both sides. Trade in particular is interrupted and landlocked Afghanistan is heavily dependent on goods coming through Pakistan. The border closure was in response to terrorist attacks in Pakistan that had their origins in Afghanistan.

There are reported to have been backchannel communications between all parties (VOA) and there are hopes that a resolution may be achieved, possibly within the week. It is said that ‘heightened security procedures’ will be put in place. Be that as it may the border closure has done nothing to prevent cross-border attacks and it may reasonably be assumed that those bent on doing harm in Pakistan are unlikely to use any of the formal or legal crossing-points. Any solution will be based around a separation between trade and security issues. Much of the trade between the two countries consists of perishables, and (unreliable) figures from traders groups put losses in the current dispute at anywhere between $40 million and $100 million. Whatever the truth a solution has to be found. Any outcome that is remotely positive has to be welcomed, and we listen for good news in a sector where good news is hard to come by.


Published in The Express Tribune, March 17^th, 2017.