Kashmir — the UN begins to stir
The offer by Mr Guterres could not be timelier
Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres. PHOTO: AFP
The sundering of India to create East and West Pakistan (later Bangladesh) also created one of the most persistent and pernicious disputes about territoriality, identity and freedom to choose — Kashmir. Pakistan and India have gone to war three times over Kashmir since Independence, and the risks associated with the issue are such that concerns have recently been expressed by a US General, Joseph Votel, that a ‘miscalculation’ in the current environment could lead to a nuclear exchange. This is not gratuitous scare-mongering. India is a close ally of the US, Pakistan considerably less so it being more of a forced than a love marriage — but Pakistan still matters to the US, and the US readily acknowledges that.
As the years have passed so there have been changes in the geopolitical environment within which sits Kashmir. It cannot, indeed must not, be seen in isolation. Isolation — of Pakistan — is at the top of the Indian agenda and with Indian PM Narendra Modi looking like he is heading for a landslide victory in the current elections there is unlikely to be much of a let-up in the pressure from the east. Thus far Pakistan is not isolated, and remains very much engaged as it must if it is to retain any sort of grip on the Kashmir narrative beyond the ritual posturing. There is thus reason to note that after a lengthy hiatus on matters Kashmiri the United Nations (UN) is considering holding talks with Indian and Pakistani officials in the light of the gradually deteriorating situation both within Kashmir and along the Line of Control (LoC).
The UN gets a very mixed press in the 21st century, and with the Trump administration expressing less than supportive thoughts as to UN relevance and efficacy it is sometimes seen as more part of the problem than part of the solution. A new Secretary General took over in January 2017 and is already proving to be considerably more dynamic than his torpid predecessor. Antonio Guterres is said not to have come to any conclusion as to how to tackle afresh the Kashmir issue, and he has no timelines as yet but is at least willing to talk to the leaders on all sides. Indeed, within days of taking office he offered his services as an ‘honest broker’ between India and Pakistan. He had already had a detailed briefing from the Pakistan permanent delegate at the UN, Dr Maleeha Lodhi, one of our more competent diplomats.
The offer by Mr Guterres could not be timelier. The Kashmir issue is an albatross around the neck of the region and not only India and Pakistan. The Chinese have a growing interest in matters regional and are expanding their political and economic influence — and not only by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The failure to find a resolution cuts across the interests of China, Russia and the United States to name but three with strong regional interests. It is a grave impediment to the development of both the protagonists as well, absorbing vast resources in maintaining a military posture and throttling any number of potential trade opportunities.
It may be that the time is right for a move by the UN, notwithstanding the corrosive stance taken by India. The Americans have their own interests to play out in India, particularly the market opportunities for American goods. India is going to be a collateral beneficiary of CPEC and a resolution in Kashmir would suit the Chinese very well. Missing from the equation thus far is the voice of the Kashmiri’s themselves. Perhaps that is where Mr Guterres needs to start his quest.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 12th, 2017.
As the years have passed so there have been changes in the geopolitical environment within which sits Kashmir. It cannot, indeed must not, be seen in isolation. Isolation — of Pakistan — is at the top of the Indian agenda and with Indian PM Narendra Modi looking like he is heading for a landslide victory in the current elections there is unlikely to be much of a let-up in the pressure from the east. Thus far Pakistan is not isolated, and remains very much engaged as it must if it is to retain any sort of grip on the Kashmir narrative beyond the ritual posturing. There is thus reason to note that after a lengthy hiatus on matters Kashmiri the United Nations (UN) is considering holding talks with Indian and Pakistani officials in the light of the gradually deteriorating situation both within Kashmir and along the Line of Control (LoC).
The UN gets a very mixed press in the 21st century, and with the Trump administration expressing less than supportive thoughts as to UN relevance and efficacy it is sometimes seen as more part of the problem than part of the solution. A new Secretary General took over in January 2017 and is already proving to be considerably more dynamic than his torpid predecessor. Antonio Guterres is said not to have come to any conclusion as to how to tackle afresh the Kashmir issue, and he has no timelines as yet but is at least willing to talk to the leaders on all sides. Indeed, within days of taking office he offered his services as an ‘honest broker’ between India and Pakistan. He had already had a detailed briefing from the Pakistan permanent delegate at the UN, Dr Maleeha Lodhi, one of our more competent diplomats.
The offer by Mr Guterres could not be timelier. The Kashmir issue is an albatross around the neck of the region and not only India and Pakistan. The Chinese have a growing interest in matters regional and are expanding their political and economic influence — and not only by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The failure to find a resolution cuts across the interests of China, Russia and the United States to name but three with strong regional interests. It is a grave impediment to the development of both the protagonists as well, absorbing vast resources in maintaining a military posture and throttling any number of potential trade opportunities.
It may be that the time is right for a move by the UN, notwithstanding the corrosive stance taken by India. The Americans have their own interests to play out in India, particularly the market opportunities for American goods. India is going to be a collateral beneficiary of CPEC and a resolution in Kashmir would suit the Chinese very well. Missing from the equation thus far is the voice of the Kashmiri’s themselves. Perhaps that is where Mr Guterres needs to start his quest.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 12th, 2017.