Most A-Level students being given inflated predicted grades: report
'Report a damning indictment on a broken system''
PHOTO: Reuters
An overwhelming majority of A-Level students are being given inflated predicted grades, research has revealed.
One in six (16 per cent) university applicants achieve exam grade points that they were anticipated to by teachers, based on their best three A-level results.
The study, published by the University and College Union (UCU), also showed that students were likely to receive more generous estimates on their performance adding inadequacy to the process of grading by predicting the actual grades of around 1.3 million students who sat A-levels between 2013-2015 through UCAS.
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It was further highlighted that an average of 75 per cent of applicants were over-predicted - meaning their predicted results were higher than what they actually achieved. Researchers also concluded that around nine per cent of applicants had under-predicted results.
It also observed that the grading procedure was somehow based on students' socio-economic background. Nearly one in four (24 per cent) applicants from minimum-income households had under-predicted results, the UCU said, compared with a fifth (20 per cent) of those from wealthier homes.
UCU general secretary Sally Hunt said, "This report exposes the vast majority of predicted grades as guestimates, which are not fit to be the basis on which young people and universities take key decisions about their futures.
"This report is a damning indictment on a broken system, not the hard-working teachers tasked with the impossible job of trying to make predictions.
"The results strongly support our call for a complete overhaul of the system, where students apply after they receive their results."
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In February, UCAS chief Mary Curnock Cook suggested teachers were purposely elevating students' predicted A-level grades to help students secure seats at top universities.
It comes as institutions are now "more flexible" on setting certain requirements and raising the level of competency.
Speaking at a higher education conference, Cook said: "I talk to a lot of schools and people who advise students and in the past I would have said 'surely you wouldn't be over-predicting your students on purpose?', and actually just this last summer really, I had teachers coming back to me and saying 'actually, yes we would'.
"I'll show you why, because actually, accepted applicants, the number who are being accepted with quite significant discounts on their offers and their predicted grades has grown quite a lot."
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Over-prediction of grades has always occurred Cook said, but she indicated that it was becoming more customary and jeopardising futures of many qualified students.
One in six (16 per cent) university applicants achieve exam grade points that they were anticipated to by teachers, based on their best three A-level results.
The study, published by the University and College Union (UCU), also showed that students were likely to receive more generous estimates on their performance adding inadequacy to the process of grading by predicting the actual grades of around 1.3 million students who sat A-levels between 2013-2015 through UCAS.
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It was further highlighted that an average of 75 per cent of applicants were over-predicted - meaning their predicted results were higher than what they actually achieved. Researchers also concluded that around nine per cent of applicants had under-predicted results.
It also observed that the grading procedure was somehow based on students' socio-economic background. Nearly one in four (24 per cent) applicants from minimum-income households had under-predicted results, the UCU said, compared with a fifth (20 per cent) of those from wealthier homes.
UCU general secretary Sally Hunt said, "This report exposes the vast majority of predicted grades as guestimates, which are not fit to be the basis on which young people and universities take key decisions about their futures.
"This report is a damning indictment on a broken system, not the hard-working teachers tasked with the impossible job of trying to make predictions.
"The results strongly support our call for a complete overhaul of the system, where students apply after they receive their results."
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In February, UCAS chief Mary Curnock Cook suggested teachers were purposely elevating students' predicted A-level grades to help students secure seats at top universities.
It comes as institutions are now "more flexible" on setting certain requirements and raising the level of competency.
Speaking at a higher education conference, Cook said: "I talk to a lot of schools and people who advise students and in the past I would have said 'surely you wouldn't be over-predicting your students on purpose?', and actually just this last summer really, I had teachers coming back to me and saying 'actually, yes we would'.
"I'll show you why, because actually, accepted applicants, the number who are being accepted with quite significant discounts on their offers and their predicted grades has grown quite a lot."
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Over-prediction of grades has always occurred Cook said, but she indicated that it was becoming more customary and jeopardising futures of many qualified students.