Budget deficit stands at 2.9% as expenditures rise
Full-year target of 4.7 per cent likely to be overshot.
ISLAMABAD:
The gap between national revenues and expenditures widened to Rs490 billion in the first half of the current financial year that virtually made the year-end budget deficit target of Rs807 billion unrealistic.
The budget deficit stood at Rs490.4 billion or 2.9 per cent of the total size of economy in July to December 2010, shows an income and expenditure summary of the finance ministry.
In six months, total income of federal and provincial governments remained at Rs989.6 billion against expenditure of Rs1.48 trillion.
Higher spending on defence and debt servicing was the major reason behind heavy expenditures, show the statistics. The government consumed Rs310.4 billion for debt servicing while Rs215 billion was spent on defence purposes.
The government earned Rs66.9 billion from defence affairs and made a profit of Rs80 billion from State Bank of Pakistan operations that restricted the deficit by almost 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The latest figures indicate that the government may not be able to meet the revised budget deficit target of 4.7 per cent of GDP or Rs807 billion. Historically, in the first six months the spending remains at 40 per cent of the total indicated expenditures. Even if this trend continues, then by June 30, the deficit could be at least 5.8 per cent of GDP, which is 1.1 per cent or Rs190 billion more than the agreed limit of Rs807 billion.
After last summer floods, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) relaxed the deficit ceiling to 4.7 per cent of GDP, a space of 0.7 per cent or Rs119 billion.
An IMF team is currently in the town to assess government accounts and the year-end budget deficit target will be a hotly debated issue besides the reformed general sales tax implementation plan, said a finance ministry official.
The worrisome aspect of the national accounts is the government’s continuous borrowing from banks to bridge the gap. It borrowed Rs443.3 billion from domestic sources that was over 90 per cent of the financing needs. The federal government borrowed Rs365 billion from domestic banks for budget financing that virtually left no money for the private sector to expand their businesses. On the other hand, the provincial governments retired Rs79.2 billion bank loans. The federal government borrowed Rs65.4 billion by floating various debt instruments.
The federal government borrowed Rs119.6 billion from external sources. Out of this, Rs72.6 billion was used for retiring or servicing external debt. It utilised the remaining balance of Rs47 billion for financing the deficit.
In six months, the donors gave Rs31.6 billion for various ongoing projects and Rs68.7 billion under programme loans that were primarily spent for budget financing.
During six months, the donors gave a mere $17 million (Rs1.5 billion) out of $5.7 billion Tokyo pledges. During the last financial year ended on June 30, the donors released around $1 billion against the yearly pledge of $2.4 billion.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 1st, 2011.
The gap between national revenues and expenditures widened to Rs490 billion in the first half of the current financial year that virtually made the year-end budget deficit target of Rs807 billion unrealistic.
The budget deficit stood at Rs490.4 billion or 2.9 per cent of the total size of economy in July to December 2010, shows an income and expenditure summary of the finance ministry.
In six months, total income of federal and provincial governments remained at Rs989.6 billion against expenditure of Rs1.48 trillion.
Higher spending on defence and debt servicing was the major reason behind heavy expenditures, show the statistics. The government consumed Rs310.4 billion for debt servicing while Rs215 billion was spent on defence purposes.
The government earned Rs66.9 billion from defence affairs and made a profit of Rs80 billion from State Bank of Pakistan operations that restricted the deficit by almost 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The latest figures indicate that the government may not be able to meet the revised budget deficit target of 4.7 per cent of GDP or Rs807 billion. Historically, in the first six months the spending remains at 40 per cent of the total indicated expenditures. Even if this trend continues, then by June 30, the deficit could be at least 5.8 per cent of GDP, which is 1.1 per cent or Rs190 billion more than the agreed limit of Rs807 billion.
After last summer floods, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) relaxed the deficit ceiling to 4.7 per cent of GDP, a space of 0.7 per cent or Rs119 billion.
An IMF team is currently in the town to assess government accounts and the year-end budget deficit target will be a hotly debated issue besides the reformed general sales tax implementation plan, said a finance ministry official.
The worrisome aspect of the national accounts is the government’s continuous borrowing from banks to bridge the gap. It borrowed Rs443.3 billion from domestic sources that was over 90 per cent of the financing needs. The federal government borrowed Rs365 billion from domestic banks for budget financing that virtually left no money for the private sector to expand their businesses. On the other hand, the provincial governments retired Rs79.2 billion bank loans. The federal government borrowed Rs65.4 billion by floating various debt instruments.
The federal government borrowed Rs119.6 billion from external sources. Out of this, Rs72.6 billion was used for retiring or servicing external debt. It utilised the remaining balance of Rs47 billion for financing the deficit.
In six months, the donors gave Rs31.6 billion for various ongoing projects and Rs68.7 billion under programme loans that were primarily spent for budget financing.
During six months, the donors gave a mere $17 million (Rs1.5 billion) out of $5.7 billion Tokyo pledges. During the last financial year ended on June 30, the donors released around $1 billion against the yearly pledge of $2.4 billion.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 1st, 2011.