Coming full circle
Russia will host trilateral talks involving itself, Pakistan and China within the next month
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets PM Nawaz Sharif on his arrival at the 7th BRICS summit. PHOTO: PID
Nothing is forever. Few foresaw the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union, even fewer the Trump presidency. The re-swinging of the compass that determines the relationship between Pakistan and Russia is equally not something that was foretold but so it has transpired. The Cold War adversaries are now aligned in such a way as to credibly address one of the great problems of modern diplomacy — peace in Afghanistan. The proposal is that Russia will host trilateral talks involving itself, Pakistan and China within the next month and is rightly described by an unnamed Pakistani official as ‘a watershed moment.’
None of the various groupings of nations that have cobbled together solution-oriented groups has done anything but ultimately fail, and often ignominiously so. They foundered as much on the failure to be inclusive, particularly of the Taliban in their various iterations, and the new tripartite proposal suffers from the same deficit. It may be that the presence of Pakistan will provide a Taliban conduit as it has in the past, and the Chinese have shown considerable interest in the recent past, hosting a meeting with the Taliban in the last year. Russia at the table considering its past history with Afghanistan is the intriguing addition. There is an obvious rapprochement with Pakistan as signaled by the first joint military exercises in the last month, much to the irritation of India that is also a player within Afghanistan. Russia may be spurred by a deteriorating situation within Afghanistan and a bullish Islamic State who now have a significant in-country presence. Not all Afghans are likely to be delighted by the Russian proposal, and some will actively work to thwart any good that might come from it. An unstable Afghanistan is in the interests of none of the great powers, regional and global. Added to the mix is the uncertainty in terms of future foreign policy direction by the upcoming Trump presidency that will have to come up to speed with remarkable alacrity if it is not to misstep in the Afghan minefield. That said, we wish good fortune to the new proposal.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 22nd, 2016.
None of the various groupings of nations that have cobbled together solution-oriented groups has done anything but ultimately fail, and often ignominiously so. They foundered as much on the failure to be inclusive, particularly of the Taliban in their various iterations, and the new tripartite proposal suffers from the same deficit. It may be that the presence of Pakistan will provide a Taliban conduit as it has in the past, and the Chinese have shown considerable interest in the recent past, hosting a meeting with the Taliban in the last year. Russia at the table considering its past history with Afghanistan is the intriguing addition. There is an obvious rapprochement with Pakistan as signaled by the first joint military exercises in the last month, much to the irritation of India that is also a player within Afghanistan. Russia may be spurred by a deteriorating situation within Afghanistan and a bullish Islamic State who now have a significant in-country presence. Not all Afghans are likely to be delighted by the Russian proposal, and some will actively work to thwart any good that might come from it. An unstable Afghanistan is in the interests of none of the great powers, regional and global. Added to the mix is the uncertainty in terms of future foreign policy direction by the upcoming Trump presidency that will have to come up to speed with remarkable alacrity if it is not to misstep in the Afghan minefield. That said, we wish good fortune to the new proposal.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 22nd, 2016.