Post-dharna options for PML-N
By now it is evident, even to the PML-N itself, that it is big enough to survive PTI’s annual dharnas
The writer is a PhD candidate and coordinator of the South Asia Study Group at the University of Sydney
By now it is evident, even to the PML-N itself, that it is big enough to survive PTI’s annual dharnas. In fact there may be a realisation within the party leadership that it could very well use a dharna or two every other year for its own political legitimacy. The more Imran Khan is out on the streets, the better it is for the PML-N to unite and show strength. Essentially, Imran Khan under PTI has provided that comfort spot to the PML-N that is now stronger than it was in the 2013 elections. But comfort spot is exactly the trap that PML-N needs to avoid to ensure domestic political stability.
While it is obvious that the PML-N is likely to sweep the next elections, the party should avoid ignoring and bypassing the fundamental issues that will push the likes of Imran Khan or more dangerous out on the streets. The good part about the anti-government dharnas is that it is led by Imran Khan — hence a U-turn is predictable. The troubling part would be when a new face, or a new force intervenes against the government if pushed to that level. Essentially, the PML-N has to undertake the base level reforms in the political party to bring more strength and legitimacy to the party so to avoid new (or old) faces to take to the streets. Keeping Bilawal off the resistance politics should be PML-N’s top priority in the months to come. In the backdrop of dwindling PTI’s reputation a year before the elections, Bilawal stands as the sole beneficiary to fill in the vacuum and lead a movement against PML-N: something that he will not hesitate to re-establish his party base and electoral strength in Punjab. And there should be no doubt that the PPP out in the streets is far more threatening to the government than PTI could ever be.
The crisis looming over the PML-N is that it has become too big for its own good. Unless it isn’t organised properly as a political party that centres on ideology and not a few individuals, the fracture is likely to come from within. The only thing saving PML-N from facing internal crack is the lack of any charismatic leader as big or even close to Nawaz Sharif. Second, most if not the entire party senior leadership is divided and do not have working relations with each other. While, to some extent, that perpetuates Nawaz Sharif’s control on his cabinet in avoiding any blocs to develop against him, how this will play out in the succession process post-Nawaz Sharif is going to be a major hurdle. Secondly, the PML-N government cannot deliver on the economic front without first having institutional reforms. In a country where civil servants are posted in departments without a job description, the development budget half of which goes unspent expecting a steady eight per cent growth rate target is essentially a mirage. With a 65 per cent youth bulge, the government that is not able to grow at a speed that keeps the youth involved in education or job market is essentially a direct threat to national stability.
Third, the PML-N government must reset the civil-military relations. While the civil-military relations have been good in terms of avoiding any direct military coup, on matters of important national and foreign policies there are inherent irritants that need to be removed before the two sides can learn to respect and work with each other. Moreover, the PML-N government must be able to groom and develop capacity of its next generation of security and foreign policy parliamentarians and technocrats that are able to work as equal partners with the military in the decision-making process. Fourth and most important is for the PML-N to work on its perception management through a coherent and a whole-of-government approach on media. With the resources of Ministry of Information, PTV, and PML-N media cell at its disposal the party has to take the control of the narrative that defines it.
With the threat of Imran Khan gone the worst thing to happen to Pakistan would be a PML-N that gets too comfortable to undertake the necessary reforms that the country desperately needs. It shouldn't just be about doing better than the PPP for PML-N, it should rather be about doing better than other countries in the region. Unless that mindset doesn't take hold, political instability will continue to define Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 5th, 2016.
While it is obvious that the PML-N is likely to sweep the next elections, the party should avoid ignoring and bypassing the fundamental issues that will push the likes of Imran Khan or more dangerous out on the streets. The good part about the anti-government dharnas is that it is led by Imran Khan — hence a U-turn is predictable. The troubling part would be when a new face, or a new force intervenes against the government if pushed to that level. Essentially, the PML-N has to undertake the base level reforms in the political party to bring more strength and legitimacy to the party so to avoid new (or old) faces to take to the streets. Keeping Bilawal off the resistance politics should be PML-N’s top priority in the months to come. In the backdrop of dwindling PTI’s reputation a year before the elections, Bilawal stands as the sole beneficiary to fill in the vacuum and lead a movement against PML-N: something that he will not hesitate to re-establish his party base and electoral strength in Punjab. And there should be no doubt that the PPP out in the streets is far more threatening to the government than PTI could ever be.
The crisis looming over the PML-N is that it has become too big for its own good. Unless it isn’t organised properly as a political party that centres on ideology and not a few individuals, the fracture is likely to come from within. The only thing saving PML-N from facing internal crack is the lack of any charismatic leader as big or even close to Nawaz Sharif. Second, most if not the entire party senior leadership is divided and do not have working relations with each other. While, to some extent, that perpetuates Nawaz Sharif’s control on his cabinet in avoiding any blocs to develop against him, how this will play out in the succession process post-Nawaz Sharif is going to be a major hurdle. Secondly, the PML-N government cannot deliver on the economic front without first having institutional reforms. In a country where civil servants are posted in departments without a job description, the development budget half of which goes unspent expecting a steady eight per cent growth rate target is essentially a mirage. With a 65 per cent youth bulge, the government that is not able to grow at a speed that keeps the youth involved in education or job market is essentially a direct threat to national stability.
Third, the PML-N government must reset the civil-military relations. While the civil-military relations have been good in terms of avoiding any direct military coup, on matters of important national and foreign policies there are inherent irritants that need to be removed before the two sides can learn to respect and work with each other. Moreover, the PML-N government must be able to groom and develop capacity of its next generation of security and foreign policy parliamentarians and technocrats that are able to work as equal partners with the military in the decision-making process. Fourth and most important is for the PML-N to work on its perception management through a coherent and a whole-of-government approach on media. With the resources of Ministry of Information, PTV, and PML-N media cell at its disposal the party has to take the control of the narrative that defines it.
With the threat of Imran Khan gone the worst thing to happen to Pakistan would be a PML-N that gets too comfortable to undertake the necessary reforms that the country desperately needs. It shouldn't just be about doing better than the PPP for PML-N, it should rather be about doing better than other countries in the region. Unless that mindset doesn't take hold, political instability will continue to define Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 5th, 2016.