Decaying diplomacy
With tempers running high, chances of a misstep or a misspeak too far are considerably elevated
PHOTO: NNI
Reports as to the possibility of Pakistan and India temporarily recalling their High Commissioners have to be viewed with grave concern. Under the circumstances, with diplomatic expulsions triggered by allegations of spying on both sides these reports are perhaps not surprising. Accompanying the reported withdrawal there are further reports that there may be a ‘scaling down’ of the diplomatic cohort posted by both sides which further darkens the diplomatic skies. If both these eventualities come to pass then bilateral relations will have reached their lowest point, lower even than the ‘new low’ experienced in recent weeks. Any nascent peace process that might still have been flickering in the background has to be regarded as ‘on ice’ likewise any moves to enhance trade or other more cultural exchanges. All of these may and we hope will be resuscitated in the future, but there is a sense that square one is again being visited.
With formal diplomatic relations reaching a nadir the means to resolve any issues that might arise — firing along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary for instance — are themselves degraded. With tempers running high, particularly on the Indian side as Mr Modi plays the domestic audience nationally much as he played his local audience when he was the governor of a single state, the chances of a misstep or a misspeak too far are considerably elevated. The dangers in that event cannot be underestimated. What begins as an artillery duel with relatively low casualties either side always has the capacity to become a wider conflict. Both sides in the weeks since the Kashmir crisis again came to the boil have reportedly moved significant amounts of troops and armour into border areas. They are not there as decoration pieces.
As ever we call for restraint on all sides but particularly on the part of India that does appear to be the architect, for whatever reason, of the current and dangerous escalation of tension. There is a telling silence from the international community as well, preoccupied as it is with an American election and floods of refugees that nobody wants. Apply the brakes and do it now — before it is discovered that the brakes themselves are disabled.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 5th, 2016.
With formal diplomatic relations reaching a nadir the means to resolve any issues that might arise — firing along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary for instance — are themselves degraded. With tempers running high, particularly on the Indian side as Mr Modi plays the domestic audience nationally much as he played his local audience when he was the governor of a single state, the chances of a misstep or a misspeak too far are considerably elevated. The dangers in that event cannot be underestimated. What begins as an artillery duel with relatively low casualties either side always has the capacity to become a wider conflict. Both sides in the weeks since the Kashmir crisis again came to the boil have reportedly moved significant amounts of troops and armour into border areas. They are not there as decoration pieces.
As ever we call for restraint on all sides but particularly on the part of India that does appear to be the architect, for whatever reason, of the current and dangerous escalation of tension. There is a telling silence from the international community as well, preoccupied as it is with an American election and floods of refugees that nobody wants. Apply the brakes and do it now — before it is discovered that the brakes themselves are disabled.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 5th, 2016.