After SAARC, viable options emerge for Pakistan, India

There are no formal closures or obituaries when a regional organisation, whether military alliance or political grouping, becomes unviable or irrelevant. Remember Warsaw Pact, The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO)! Similarly, the profile and activities of Non-Aligned Movement and Developing-8 are seasonal, depending on which country holds the chair. Now the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the latest in the endless list of obsolete blocs.



At Goa, Delhi invited a different set of countries for a parallel summit while it hosted BRICS. On his inauguration as prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi had totally ignored the members of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Inviting SAARC leaders, including those from Pakistan, made his swearing-in ceremony global news. However, the importance accorded to SAARC was only selective and the hype temporary, as India didn’t resume the composite dialogue process with Pakistan. Over the years, the situation has worsened to a near-war scenario. Last month, India dumped SAARC after engaging with Iran and Afghanistan through a trilateral framework. Delhi’s frustration at Pakistan and China over a shared logistical corridor acted as the final nail in its coffin.

Effectiveness of regional organisations  

BIMSTEC was formed in 1997. The ‘alliance’, as it calls itself, aims “to harness shared and accelerated growth through mutual cooperation in different areas of common interests by mitigating the onslaught of globalisation and by utilising regional resources and geographical advantages.” The sector-driven cooperative organisation began with focus on trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism and fisheries but later expanded to including agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation, counter-terrorism, environment, culture, people-to-people contact and climate change in 2008.



Before moving to the bloc’s geo-economic and geo-strategic dynamics, it is pertinent to mention its flagship projects. The under completion Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport project seeks to link India and Myanmar by connecting Kolkata to Sittwe port. Then there is India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, which is likely to complete sometime in 2017. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal have already started realising the dream of vehicular cargo transportation. Trial runs of trucks began in 2014 but much remains to be hammered from infrastructure and bureaucratic perspectives.

But the credit for these projects goes to bilateral and multilateral negotiations than BIMSTEC itself. Such cooperation on economic and trade fronts is attributed to the seven-member body to enhance its profile.

For India and Bangladesh, significance of BIMSTEC has been fuelled by similarity of views between Narendra Modi and Hasina Wajid. Housing the alliance’s secretariat, Dhaka has the responsibility of evolving the bureaucratic foundations for smooth trade and infrastructure development projects.

For nearly a decade, the Bay of Bengal Initiative has survived in dormancy for lack of interest from its key members. For an economic alliance, the BIMSTEC is too varied. The varying economy sizes and the member countries challenge the notion of fair treatment for all.

The differences in scale of economic development of Burma and Nepal with other members like India are mammoth and widening. For India, peace in the north-eastern states is of paramount significance. The Maoist and other secessionist movements have not been quelled to satisfaction. Thus, it is set to face similar threats in the northeast, which it has been funding, to create in Pakistan’s Balochistan region for the CPEC. Mere security cooperation with Myanmar and Bangladesh won’t be enough to address the concerns of defiant militants and their local supporters. However, the militancy in the northeast poses limited challenge to the bloc’s success than internal jealousy for maximising outcomes.

Member states and their motives 

BIMSTEC is a natural alliance but not necessarily one destined for success. China’s entry into the forum could be a game-changer. Neither has Beijing been invited nor is it interested. While the BRICS summit was being held in Goa, the Chinese premier was concluding his visit to Bangladesh. For Asia’s economic giant, bilateral relations hold the key, and wherever needed, the ASEAN multilateral forum comes to aid.



For Pakistan, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) holds the key. It’s nascent and less hyped compared to SAARC. China and Pakistan are linchpin for the other eight landlocked Central Asian members of the bloc. Not only does the grouping offer Central Asia access to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar and Karachi ports, but also connects her to Eurasia.

With technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank, 30 road projects will be constructed at a cost of $8 billion in next five years. The secretariat is already studying the proposal of including Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand, three BIMSTEC members.

CAREC revives historic trade routes for all its member states as much as BIMSTEC does for its participants. There won’t be much sobbing over the prolonged experiment called, SAARC.

Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360