The post-surgical churn

Within India the ‘strikes’ have been politicised, possibly in connection with upcoming elections in Indian Punjab & UP

When viewed from the International Space Station (ISS) there are no artificially defined national borders that are visible at night — except that between India and Pakistan. A bright orange line snakes across an image released by NASA a little over a year ago, in September 2015. It reaches from the Indian Ocean in the south to the Himalayan foothills in the north and will have cost countless billions to build — to say nothing of the price of illuminating it through the hours of darkness. The image says nothing of the vast military resources deployed by both countries to patrol and maintain the border, but it speaks volumes about the divisions that separate the two.

A line of lights is not an impermeable seal, a situation due to be rectified according to Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh who has said that the sealing of the border will be completed by December 2018. Technological solutions are being considered — lasers that detect movement are already operational along parts of the border — but there is already scepticism being voiced internationally as to the practicality as well as the crippling cost of such a venture. An action plan is being drafted says Mr Singh and the chief and home ministers of all the states that border Pakistan have been consulted, including those of Kashmir.

This is a big job to complete in a little over a year, and given the fragility of relations between the two countries, it is a virtual certainty that the activities associated with ‘sealing’ are going to exacerbate existing tensions and create several new ones along the way. The nature of the sealant is yet unknown but it is unlikely to all be hi-tech and unobtrusive, non-invasive. Much of the border is historically quiet in purely military terms, thinly patrolled and even porous in places where nomadic desert people move to and fro with their flocks, but that may be about to change. India would do far better investing in the peace process rather than a potentially abrasive and in all likelihood ineffective sealant — but that would be an outbreak of common sense and thus unlikely.

Coming down to Earth the ‘surgical strikes’ that may or may not have happened are having an echo-effect in Indian politics. The Indian Opposition parties have questioned the ruling BJP as to the reality of cross-border activity of the scalpel and forceps variety, and the BJP in its turn has hit back at them (in Congress, no less) accusing them of lowering the Indian army’s morale with the doubts they have raised. Terms like ‘traitor’ have been bandied about in respect of the leader of the Aam Aadmi Party, Arvind Kejriwal, who it was had asked PM Modi to ‘expose’ Pakistan by releasing detailed proofs of the strikes. This has not been forthcoming.

Reference was made in a range of Indian newspapers to the political isolation of Pakistan in international fora being driven by India — which if nothing else adds weight to the perception in Pakistan that India in this instance is seeking to do real and lasting damage generally to Pakistan and the cause of the Kashmiris in particular. Diplomacy may be war conducted by other means, but a cunning manipulation of the Fourth Estate may create collateral damage far more subtle than any bomb or bullet.

Within India the ‘strikes’ have been politicised, possibly in connection with upcoming elections in Indian Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, both due in coming months. Intemperate and inaccurate language at the apex of the Indian government in respect of the ‘strikes’ have effectively backfired, played into the hands of the Indian Opposition, and Mr Modi appears hoist with his own petard. None of this churn is visible from the ISIS, just a line of light straggling across the darkness. How unfortunate that similar illumination is availed by neither state in the daylight hours.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 9^th, 2016.

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