May's Conservatives heading down open road to Brexit
May became Britain's second woman prime minister after David Cameron resigned in June
British Prime Minister Theresa May. PHOTO: AFP
LONDON:
Turmoil in the political opposition has given Britain's governing Conservative Party free rein to implement Brexit in its own way, but Prime Minister Theresa May is at the mercy of her own awkward squad, analysts say.
May, who will address a party conference for the first time as leader on Sunday, is "hugely bolstered by the absence of a strong and meaningful opposition", said Jane Green, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester.
Theresa May's inbox: Uniting kingdom and country, uncoupling from EU
"Had the (opposition) Labour Party been able to hold the May government to account, we would, I imagine, be seeing more detail on what she is aiming to do" in taking Britain out of the European Union, Green told AFP.
Labour has been embroiled in a bitter leadership contest all summer and remains in turmoil following the re-election of leftist leader Jeremy Corbyn at its annual conference, against the wishes of the vast majority of Labour's members of parliament.
The party is also divided on mass immigration -- the key issue in Britain's June 23 referendum vote to leave the EU.
"The inward-looking incoherence of the Labour conference this week is best symbolised by the absence of any debate on Brexit -- surely the central issue for politics this year and for years to come," Tom Baldwin, media chief for the previous Labour leader Ed Miliband, wrote in the London Evening Standard newspaper.
At the Conservatives' annual conference in Birmingham, central England, which begins on Sunday, May should hit the stage "with one thing in mind: the destruction of the Labour party as we know it," said James Frayne, strategy director of the Policy Exchange think-tank.
"Her speech should mark the beginning of a process to completely dominate the political mainstream, pushing the Labour party out to the fringes with the Lib Dems. Labour are irrelevant to the lives of ordinary people," he wrote on the Conservative Home website.
May, who turned 60 on Saturday, became Britain's second woman prime minister in July, after David Cameron resigned following the defeat of the 'Remain' campaign he had backed in the referendum on Britain's EU membership.
She has pledged to govern in the inclusive "One Nation" style of conservatism, which dates back to 19th-century premier Benjamin Disraeli.
Reinterpreted for 2016, it means dominating the centre ground left uncontested by Labour, who many believe are further from power than at any time in more than 30 years.
Theresa May's inner circle: who will be in Britain's 'Brexit cabinet'?
Voters have far more confidence in May than Corbyn to prop up the public health service, reduce mass immigration and strike post-Brexit trade relationships, according to a Britain Thinks opinion poll on September 22.
And a YouGov poll for The Times newspaper on Friday put the Conservatives on 39 percent, ahead of Labour on 30 percent, the Brexit-cheerleading UK Independence Party on 13 percent and the centre-left Liberal Democrats on eight percent.
Polls since July have regularly given the Conservatives a double-digit lead.
But not everything is going swimmingly for May, according to Matthew Goodwin, a professor of political science at Kent University.
"The Conservative Party is currently enjoying a very strong position in the polls after the referendum," he told AFP.
Still with only a slender majority in the House of Commons, "potentially, it could be very difficult for Theresa May to pass through controversial legislation in the future linked to Brexit".
Some Conservatives on the eve of the conference are agitating for May to capitalise on the party's dominance in opinion polls and call a fresh general election, giving her a personal mandate and, they believe, swelling the parliamentary majority.
Meanwhile May's first challenge is to maintain unity in the cabinet she has chosen between those wanting a so-called "soft Brexit" and those backing full divorce from Brussels, including withdrawing from the single market.
May and her finance minister Philip Hammond both gave lukewarm backing for Britain staying in the EU during the referendum campaign.
But they sit around the cabinet table with the "three Brexiteers": Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Brexit minister David Davis and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox.
"That is a huge opportunity for a One-Nation Conservative party to demonstrate our relevance beyond our core vote to those around the country who have clearly felt so marginalised," George Freeman, chairman of the Conservative policy board, told the left-wing New Statesman magazine.
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"It also creates a question for the Conservative Party: will we turn in on ourselves and generate our own arguments, or unite and reach out into the space that Corbyn has vacated?"
Whatever the wishes of the hardcore Brexiteers, whether in cabinet or on parliament's backbenches, May and her government are about to enter uncharted territory.
The outcome will largely rest in the hands of the EU on the other side of the negotiating table.
Turmoil in the political opposition has given Britain's governing Conservative Party free rein to implement Brexit in its own way, but Prime Minister Theresa May is at the mercy of her own awkward squad, analysts say.
May, who will address a party conference for the first time as leader on Sunday, is "hugely bolstered by the absence of a strong and meaningful opposition", said Jane Green, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester.
Theresa May's inbox: Uniting kingdom and country, uncoupling from EU
"Had the (opposition) Labour Party been able to hold the May government to account, we would, I imagine, be seeing more detail on what she is aiming to do" in taking Britain out of the European Union, Green told AFP.
Labour has been embroiled in a bitter leadership contest all summer and remains in turmoil following the re-election of leftist leader Jeremy Corbyn at its annual conference, against the wishes of the vast majority of Labour's members of parliament.
The party is also divided on mass immigration -- the key issue in Britain's June 23 referendum vote to leave the EU.
"The inward-looking incoherence of the Labour conference this week is best symbolised by the absence of any debate on Brexit -- surely the central issue for politics this year and for years to come," Tom Baldwin, media chief for the previous Labour leader Ed Miliband, wrote in the London Evening Standard newspaper.
At the Conservatives' annual conference in Birmingham, central England, which begins on Sunday, May should hit the stage "with one thing in mind: the destruction of the Labour party as we know it," said James Frayne, strategy director of the Policy Exchange think-tank.
"Her speech should mark the beginning of a process to completely dominate the political mainstream, pushing the Labour party out to the fringes with the Lib Dems. Labour are irrelevant to the lives of ordinary people," he wrote on the Conservative Home website.
May, who turned 60 on Saturday, became Britain's second woman prime minister in July, after David Cameron resigned following the defeat of the 'Remain' campaign he had backed in the referendum on Britain's EU membership.
She has pledged to govern in the inclusive "One Nation" style of conservatism, which dates back to 19th-century premier Benjamin Disraeli.
Reinterpreted for 2016, it means dominating the centre ground left uncontested by Labour, who many believe are further from power than at any time in more than 30 years.
Theresa May's inner circle: who will be in Britain's 'Brexit cabinet'?
Voters have far more confidence in May than Corbyn to prop up the public health service, reduce mass immigration and strike post-Brexit trade relationships, according to a Britain Thinks opinion poll on September 22.
And a YouGov poll for The Times newspaper on Friday put the Conservatives on 39 percent, ahead of Labour on 30 percent, the Brexit-cheerleading UK Independence Party on 13 percent and the centre-left Liberal Democrats on eight percent.
Polls since July have regularly given the Conservatives a double-digit lead.
But not everything is going swimmingly for May, according to Matthew Goodwin, a professor of political science at Kent University.
"The Conservative Party is currently enjoying a very strong position in the polls after the referendum," he told AFP.
Still with only a slender majority in the House of Commons, "potentially, it could be very difficult for Theresa May to pass through controversial legislation in the future linked to Brexit".
Some Conservatives on the eve of the conference are agitating for May to capitalise on the party's dominance in opinion polls and call a fresh general election, giving her a personal mandate and, they believe, swelling the parliamentary majority.
Meanwhile May's first challenge is to maintain unity in the cabinet she has chosen between those wanting a so-called "soft Brexit" and those backing full divorce from Brussels, including withdrawing from the single market.
May and her finance minister Philip Hammond both gave lukewarm backing for Britain staying in the EU during the referendum campaign.
But they sit around the cabinet table with the "three Brexiteers": Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Brexit minister David Davis and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox.
"That is a huge opportunity for a One-Nation Conservative party to demonstrate our relevance beyond our core vote to those around the country who have clearly felt so marginalised," George Freeman, chairman of the Conservative policy board, told the left-wing New Statesman magazine.
New British PM calls Pakistan a dependable ally
"It also creates a question for the Conservative Party: will we turn in on ourselves and generate our own arguments, or unite and reach out into the space that Corbyn has vacated?"
Whatever the wishes of the hardcore Brexiteers, whether in cabinet or on parliament's backbenches, May and her government are about to enter uncharted territory.
The outcome will largely rest in the hands of the EU on the other side of the negotiating table.