Money — not Modi, in AJK
A prosperous AJK is one of the key factors that will strengthen Pakistan’s case internationally
The writer is a graduate in economics from Kingston university UK and a freelance researcher
While Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) is drenched in blood and witnessing another popular upsurge against the unjust system, Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) is ready to conduct polls on July 21 for the 10th tenure of its legislative assembly. Many, including top leaders of key political parties in Pakistan, assume that conditions in IOK will have a direct bearing on these elections. Therefore, leaders of parties like the PPP, PML-N and PTI, who visited AJK in the last couple of months and addressed large gatherings, have woven their election campaign around developments in IOK instead of their own Kashmir.
Notwithstanding the fact that ordinary Pakistani Kashmiris are pained by atrocities borne by their counterparts at the hands of the Indian state, during elections their concern is not Modi but money and greater modernity in the form of socioeconomic and human resource development. Any political party can only ignore these political realities at their own risk.
AJK’s demographic and political dynamics are interesting. With an area of 13,297 square kilometres, the majority of its estimated 4.3 million people live in rural areas. There has been little industrialisation or even growth of trading community. Despite a fairly high literacy rate of 74 per cent, the unemployment ratio is very high at 14.4 per cent. Even the primary school enrollment figure needs attention as only 20 per cent manage to do matriculation. Almost 40 per cent of the population earn their living from agriculture and the rest dependent upon foreign remittances. The dependency of the population on Pakistan’s civil and military bureaucracies and the state in general is astounding. It is due to the poor road infrastructure that the area is unable to tap into its tourism potential. Furthermore, only 60 per cent of the villages have access to piped water.
Development is critical when it comes to elections for the 49 seats of the AJK legislative assembly. Out of the total number of seats, direct elections are held on 41 with another 8 dedicated for women, technocrats, overseas Kashmiris and religious clerics. Again, out of 41 seats 29 are located within territorial boundaries of AJK while 12 are for refugees (Kashmiris) residing in Pakistan. The area is diverse; eight different local languages are spoken there, thus impacting electoral politics. Under the circumstances, two factors dominate the elections the most. First, is the biradari (clan) factor which is linked with the social, political and economic backwardness of the place. Biradari is not just a matter of individual identity but a grouping that helps in securing government jobs and exerting influence on the judiciary and in bar politics.
However, the second and more significant factor pertains to Pakistan’s politics. In elections in particular, it matters who controls the federal government and the one in Punjab. Nine out of 12 refugee constituencies are based in Punjab. Such political association is in hope of resources that could be obtained for the socioeconomic progress of the area. Thus, some people may assume that raising slogan of accession of entire Kashmir to Pakistan can play an important role in winning votes, but the history of past elections of AJK shows otherwise. People vote for those parties who promise to create employment, bring development and an end to corruption and nepotism. Parties focusing mainly on the accession issue, such as Jamaat-e-Islami, have failed. A similar problem is seen in the case of nationalist parties, who, in any case, hide behind boycotting elections. Were they to contest elections they may find out that ordinary people have little traction towards them.
Given the state of affairs in AJK, ordinary voters don’t even believe that major political players are serious about raising the issue of Kashmiris in IOK. What will certainly help the cause of Kashmiris on both sides, certainly in IOK, is if conditions in AJK become more credible. A prosperous AJK is one of the key factors that will strengthen Pakistan’s case internationally, and also give hope to those living in Indian Kashmir. At the end of the day, the entire Kashmir issue is about the betterment of its people and their access to justice and progress.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 21st, 2016.
Notwithstanding the fact that ordinary Pakistani Kashmiris are pained by atrocities borne by their counterparts at the hands of the Indian state, during elections their concern is not Modi but money and greater modernity in the form of socioeconomic and human resource development. Any political party can only ignore these political realities at their own risk.
AJK’s demographic and political dynamics are interesting. With an area of 13,297 square kilometres, the majority of its estimated 4.3 million people live in rural areas. There has been little industrialisation or even growth of trading community. Despite a fairly high literacy rate of 74 per cent, the unemployment ratio is very high at 14.4 per cent. Even the primary school enrollment figure needs attention as only 20 per cent manage to do matriculation. Almost 40 per cent of the population earn their living from agriculture and the rest dependent upon foreign remittances. The dependency of the population on Pakistan’s civil and military bureaucracies and the state in general is astounding. It is due to the poor road infrastructure that the area is unable to tap into its tourism potential. Furthermore, only 60 per cent of the villages have access to piped water.
Development is critical when it comes to elections for the 49 seats of the AJK legislative assembly. Out of the total number of seats, direct elections are held on 41 with another 8 dedicated for women, technocrats, overseas Kashmiris and religious clerics. Again, out of 41 seats 29 are located within territorial boundaries of AJK while 12 are for refugees (Kashmiris) residing in Pakistan. The area is diverse; eight different local languages are spoken there, thus impacting electoral politics. Under the circumstances, two factors dominate the elections the most. First, is the biradari (clan) factor which is linked with the social, political and economic backwardness of the place. Biradari is not just a matter of individual identity but a grouping that helps in securing government jobs and exerting influence on the judiciary and in bar politics.
However, the second and more significant factor pertains to Pakistan’s politics. In elections in particular, it matters who controls the federal government and the one in Punjab. Nine out of 12 refugee constituencies are based in Punjab. Such political association is in hope of resources that could be obtained for the socioeconomic progress of the area. Thus, some people may assume that raising slogan of accession of entire Kashmir to Pakistan can play an important role in winning votes, but the history of past elections of AJK shows otherwise. People vote for those parties who promise to create employment, bring development and an end to corruption and nepotism. Parties focusing mainly on the accession issue, such as Jamaat-e-Islami, have failed. A similar problem is seen in the case of nationalist parties, who, in any case, hide behind boycotting elections. Were they to contest elections they may find out that ordinary people have little traction towards them.
Given the state of affairs in AJK, ordinary voters don’t even believe that major political players are serious about raising the issue of Kashmiris in IOK. What will certainly help the cause of Kashmiris on both sides, certainly in IOK, is if conditions in AJK become more credible. A prosperous AJK is one of the key factors that will strengthen Pakistan’s case internationally, and also give hope to those living in Indian Kashmir. At the end of the day, the entire Kashmir issue is about the betterment of its people and their access to justice and progress.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 21st, 2016.