Governance on pause

For all the sound and fury generated by the Panama Papers, there is little by way of light. The two sides started from entrenched positions and have not moved from there, notwithstanding the formation of a cross-party group formed to agree the Terms of Reference (ToR) that would underpin any future inquiry. The indications were that the opposition members of the group, specifically from the PPP and the PTI, were increasingly unhappy with the government position which was essentially to create ToRs that were broad and would take years to investigate — and are now walking away. Their strategy, having failed to corral the prime minister within a framework that would look very specifically at the financial activity of himself and his extended family, is now to file cases against him in the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB).



In the case of the ECP, it is non-functional at the moment as it awaits the appointment of replacements for the four members who retired simultaneously recently. Any application to the ECP will sit on the table pending a resolution of this vital matter — perhaps months away. NAB has a reputation as something of a soft touch for whichever is the ruling party, so the opposition is unlikely to find success in that direction. The reality is that the government lacks any kind of sincerity in pursuing any investigation that comes anywhere close to the prime minister, and can stonewall as long as it wants, secure behind layer upon layer of legal protection that is both locally and internationally generated to protect the privacy of those involved in offshore transactions.

As these ritualised postures play out, the government coasts along on autopilot. Even assuming the opposition stays united and harasses the government on all sides, it is going to do little more than create governmental discomfort, and not at a level likely to see it fall. The kabuki theatre of the dharna is a post-Eid possibility, but with a secure majority in parliament and an electoral cycle on the horizon, the Panama Papers are beginning to be an albatross — and not for the PML-N, which has elevated masterly inactivity to a political artform.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 25^th, 2016.

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