Economic Survey 2015-16: Off target, once again

Published: June 2, 2016
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A day before announcing the budget, the government highlights its achievements in the past year. PHOTO: AFP

A day before announcing the budget, the government highlights its achievements in the past year. PHOTO: AFP

A day before announcing the budget for fiscal year 2016-2017, the government on Thursday revealed the Economic Survey 2015-16 to highlight its achievements in the past year.

While the government achieved several milestones, it also missed some important economic targets.

Economic Survey 2014-15: Ishaq Dar touts economic growth amidst missed targets

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said, “According to provisional estimates the GDP growth during 2015-16 remained at 4.71 per cent,” reading the survey, said at a televised press conference.”

 

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Click the image below for our special report on the PML-N’s performance in the past 3 years: 

The government missed the most important economic target – GDP growth, which was set at 5.1 per cent. However, targets in industrial and service sectors remained stable.

“There has been an ongoing war on terror that has taken priority,” said the finance minister. “We are definitely equipped to hold a census and we will have it done soon. It is a priority.”

War on terror expenses have risen to over $118 billion, adds Dar.

Since 9/11, Pakistan lost $118.3b to terror

Terrorism, fuelled by cross-border and foreign sponsorships, has driven up losses for Pakistan to $118.3 billion since 2001, the minister said.

 

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Industrial sector records growth at 6.8%

Industrial sector recorded growth at 6.8% as compared to 4.8% last year.

The target for the industrial sector was set at 6.4%.

Industrial sector expands 6.8%, beats target

The industrial sector has beaten the 6.4% growth target for fiscal year 2015-16, with an expansion of 6.8%, reveals the Pakistan Economic Survey 2015-16.

 

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Heavy industries: LSM picks up pace with 4.7% growth

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) – which constitutes 80% of Pakistan’s manufacturing sector – picked up momentum and posted a 4.7% growth in the first nine months (Jul-Mar) of outgoing fiscal year 2015-16 compared to 2.81% in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2015-16.

 

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Tax exemptions cost Pakistan Rs394.5b

Tax exemptions continued to be a thorn in the government’s rosy image as the latest figures revealed that Pakistan sustained a loss of Rs394.5 billion in the outgoing fiscal year.

 

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Services witnesses growth rate of 5.7%

The Services sector has witnessed a growth rate of 5.7% as compared to 4.37%  last year.

Rs1.67tr budget approved for fiscal year 2016-17

Agriculture sector shows decline

The target was evidently missed in the agriculture sector.

“The agriculture growth stood at -0.19% in 2015-16, as compared to 2.5% during the last year. The target was set at 3.9%.

Reflecting on why agriculture growth missed its target by a large margin, Dar pinned the hit on the decline in cotton production, adding that a subsidy package for the sector would be announced.

The minister further said that wheat production increased from 25.08 million tons to 25.48 ml tons.

Agriculture pulls down GDP growth

Casting a dark shadow on an otherwise positive economic survey, the performance of the agricultural sector left a depressing effect on Pakistan’s GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year.

 

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Fiscal deficit

Fiscal deficit during the nine-month period has remained 3.4 per cent as opposed to 3.8 per cent of the corresponding period last year.

Exports

Commenting on the fall of exports, which have gone down to $18.18 billion (10MFY16), Dar said the quantity had gone up overall. However, the decrease in commodity and oil prices have meant the return has been low.

Inflation expected to remain below 3%

As the financial year draws to a close on June 30, inflation will remain around 3% – far below the anticipated rate owing to reduced commodity prices.

Dar said the rupee also remained stable against the US dollar, helping to curtail the inflationary expectations.

Telecom sector sees $557.3m investment

Cellular mobile operators invested $557.3 million to upgrade their 3G/4G broadband networks in the first nine months (July 2015 to March 2016) of the outgoing fiscal year, but revenues continued to decline, according to the Economic Survey 2015-16.

 

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One-third of population lives below poverty line

Poverty ratio dropped to 29.5 percent in the country in 2013-14, plunging from 64.3 percent in 2001 and despite changing the calculation methodology, the poverty showed a declining trend, said Finance Minister Ishaq Dar while launching the Economic Survey.

 

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K-Electric’s output continues to decline

The agriculture sector may have taken some shine off GDP, but the energy sector contributed its fair share as around 12.18% growth came from real value-addition in electricity generation, distribution and gas distribution.

 

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‘Relatively exceptional’ performance of KSE-100 Index

A year-on-year increase of less than 0.2% in the market capitalisation of a bourse over 11 months can be called anything but exceptional.

 

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Healthcare continues downward slide

Overall health sector remains to be the lowest priority of the federal government. Most health indicators in the economic survey released on Thursday showed downward slide.

 

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Reader Comments (27)

  • Adnan Siddiqui
    Jun 2, 2016 - 5:21PM

    The Master Fudger could only manage 4.7% ??Recommend

  • Jun 2, 2016 - 5:54PM

    Tax collection is a big achievement of this government. But need developements for the sake of ordinary people i.e their short term businesses.Recommend

  • London Banker
    Jun 2, 2016 - 6:16PM

    No No, Mr. Dar, you and PMLN have it wrong. Its actually 47% growth, that too in 1 quarter and not the full fiscal year.Recommend

  • Feroz
    Jun 2, 2016 - 6:23PM

    Everybody is fudging figures without exception ——– US, China, Japan, India, European Union, Pakistan included. Only the naive and gullible are being taken in by these figures.Recommend

  • zafar
    Jun 2, 2016 - 7:03PM

    Isaq Dar is good in fudging numbers and gave threats to economists to give his desirable target results. What else can be expected from money launderer?Recommend

  • Samrat
    Jun 2, 2016 - 7:14PM

    @Feroz LOL! Just because you’re not moving an inch doesn’t mean the world has come to a standstill. The difference is that Pakistan’s growth forecast is done by its own prople like Dar, whereas IND like other countries get its growth figures from credible agencies like IMF, Moody’s, S&P etc. And yes, we don’t own any of these to manipulate figures cause even your Iron brother China doesn’t question the legitimacy of these agencies.Recommend

  • Revenge
    Jun 2, 2016 - 7:17PM

    @Feroz Not every country is Pakistan. For all others you named, their forecast comes from credible international rating bodies and not some Ishaq Dar.Recommend

  • Raisani
    Jun 2, 2016 - 7:39PM

    All figures are just managed and self-fabricated. Good Work Dar, your boss would be happy. Recommend

  • IK
    Jun 2, 2016 - 7:56PM

    @Adnan Siddiqui:
    Didn’t expect this from Mr. SiddiquiRecommend

  • Parvez
    Jun 2, 2016 - 9:23PM

    The credibility of the Finance Ministry is next to zero……reality on the ground gives a different picture.Recommend

  • Ishrat Salim
    Jun 2, 2016 - 10:50PM

    All these budget are useless and an eye wash unless census is carried on. Census will expose the ground reality and this important factor everyone seen to be ignoring, including commentators.Recommend

  • Sandip
    Jun 2, 2016 - 10:53PM

    Too bad Mr. Dar had to stop at 4.7%. After all Musharraf took it to 7.5%. If Mush had the pen in his hand, he would have definitely set it to 11 or 12%.Recommend

  • Imran khan
    Jun 3, 2016 - 12:06AM

    Good job pakistan
    It would be better if only we could pay off IMF & live interest free. AMEEN. Recommend

  • just_someone
    Jun 3, 2016 - 12:22AM

    @Revenge:
    India is fudging like crazy…
    The whole recalculation is their method of fudging.
    If they had not changed the formula, the numbers would stay the same. said differently, the same growth are in modi times as before.Recommend

  • Ayesha
    Jun 3, 2016 - 12:37AM

    Pakistan has limited resources. I think it is very good performance of the government. Imran Khan is trying his best to disturb the performance of government only for his political gains. But in fact he is losing.Recommend

  • Manzoor
    Jun 3, 2016 - 12:43AM

    Well done Mr. Dar. I appreciate.Recommend

  • Raisani
    Jun 3, 2016 - 1:14AM

    @IK:
    His services are now hired by the Anti-Nawaz party. So you’d get to get many shocks. Beware! Recommend

  • Bashiruddin Mohammad
    Jun 3, 2016 - 9:23AM

    @Adnan Siddiqui:
    Originally it was 3.1 percent. Recommend

  • Saqib
    Jun 3, 2016 - 10:17AM

    Though govt didn’t achieve set GDP target but I am more concern about the alarming drop in agriculture growth. Pakistan approx. 65% is rural economy and it mostly based on agriculture and downward growth in agriculture means more hike in agricultural commodities resulting pushing more people in poverty. Big time challenge for country’s agricultural departments to reverse this trend in Ag sector and make contribution in the overall economic growth. Recommend

  • Last Man Alive
    Jun 3, 2016 - 10:19AM

    According to many media reports this is a doctored document with

    garbled figures. Bureau of Statistics was coerced by this

    accountant cum money launderer into twitching

    figures according to his deceptive orders. Recommend

  • Raw is War
    Jun 3, 2016 - 11:52AM

    Not bad at all. Nawaz Shareef seems to be doing a good job. Observation from India side. These are honest figures unlike the jokes made by Musharaf regime- when he projected Pakistan as the world’s fastes growing nation (also claimed to have eliminated poverty by 30%).Recommend

  • Pakistani
    Jun 3, 2016 - 12:30PM

    surprise surprise!!Recommend

  • Harish
    Jun 3, 2016 - 2:15PM

    Congratulations.Recommend

  • Revenge
    Jun 3, 2016 - 2:37PM

    @just_someone Try to read the comment properly next time cause you seem too eager to respond. IND’s growth forecast are done by agencies like S&P, Moodys and IMF and they don’t take orders from India cause we don’t own them. But if you have a habit of burying your head in sand then this is the exact reason yours is a faile state which always relies on others.Recommend

  • Anuj
    Jun 3, 2016 - 2:40PM

    @just_someone keep saying that to comfort yourself cause world ain’t Pakistan and reality won’t change even if you remain in denial mode forever.Recommend

  • Jun 4, 2016 - 9:30AM

    mr. revenge as your name expresses that you are a pessimist, and before telling us that PAK is a failed state……………………………..please bread your 50 million population under poverty line that sleep on roads, treat your 20.45 million population having just one time meal….and what is the credibility of bullshitt IMF and like these institutions which have their own world agenda…..so dont teach us,,,we know wat v r and where v have to move forward …your crippling economy is a slap on your face that is why u all are carried away by CPEC project vand boggled down to IRAN..this is your mean thinking. KALBHOSHAN YADIV exm is true reflect of your chankya mentality.Recommend

  • Jun 4, 2016 - 9:33AM

    HA HA HA NOW indians would tell US how to improve the economy and come out of poverty….LLLLOLLLLLLL HHAHAHAHAHAHRecommend

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