Quiet changes in Iran

The supporters of President Hassan Rouhani won 42 per cent of the 290 seats in parliament

The run-off elections in Iran have served a sotto-voce notice on the hardliners in and out of parliament that their day whilst not yet over, is not indefinite. The moderates and reformists have gained a working majority in the Iranian parliament for the first time in over a decade. The supporters of President Hassan Rouhani won 42 per cent of the 290 seats, which is a whisker short of an outright majority but sufficient to pass the legislation he wants to get on the books. The so-called ‘Independents’ took almost 30 per cent of the seats and a high percentage of them are also said to be reform-minded. Most significantly, women fared particularly well taking 17 seats, more than at any time since the 1979 election. Eleven of the women are considered to be ‘moderates.’

The result is perhaps all the more surprising, at least in terms of the moderate and reformist gain, when it is remembered that most well-known reformists had been banned from running in the elections and there was a complete lack of media coverage of the moderate campaign prior to the elections. The moderates ran their campaign in the place where their core constituency spends its time — on the internet. The younger generation and women in particular have voted for change, but it is not coming overnight. A result such as this against a background of profound hardline resistance to change is itself an indicator that the people of Iran are more than ready to put the Day of the Cleric, if not behind them, then on the back burner at least. The win could be short-lived if President Rouhani is unable to deliver on his electoral promises, and much will turn on the degree of implementation of the myriad clauses and sub-agreements in the nuclear non-proliferation deal struck last year. Not all sanctions have been lifted and there are still unelected groups that are against any sort of deal and will try to derail President Rouhani. Iran has had an election, not a revolution. Moderation won — and now has to make the victory stick.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 3^rd, 2016.

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