Staying on track

Announcement that Pakistan is to host direct talks between Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban is welcome

Pakistan is playing an increasingly proactive role in peace talks both to the east and the west. The announcement that Pakistan is to host the latest direct talks between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban as well as other ‘insurgent’ groups is welcome. Getting other ‘insurgent’ groups on-side is almost as important as getting on the same page as the Taliban. Talks are imminent, probably to be held in the first week of March and the invitation comes via the increasingly useful Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) that met in Kabul on February 23. There were doubts when the QGC was constituted as to its utility in a crowded field of players, but the mix of nations appears to be developing a helpful synergy.



Complex conflicts dominate the world stage. The war in Syria has got more complex by the week, and the wars over the centuries in Afghanistan have produced an environment where peace is only ever going to be partial, never complete or eternally durable. The crafting of even a partial peace, a quasi-equilibrium, is better than nothing for the war-weary people of Afghanistan and there is today a sense of urgency in the air.

The constitution of a joint bilateral working group that includes important ulemas of both Pakistan and Afghanistan is an indication that there is a willingness for inclusivity. It may mean that old enemies come to the table and are able to re-brand their relationship from ‘enemy’ to ‘frenemy’ and there is a yawning trust deficit on all sides that is not going to disappear overnight — but this iteration of the peace process has as good a chance as any — or none — of a partial success.

As noted above, the complexity of the conflict adds to the difficulty of resolution, not all the combatants/players want the same thing, and not all would be willing to sign a peace treaty but may be persuaded to agree to a ‘cessation of hostilities’ as a position somewhere short of a ratified peace treaty. Take small steps, be transparent and do nothing other than stay on track. Good luck.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 25^th,  2016.

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