Helmand on the brink
Key locations within and around the town fell to the Taliban on December 20
An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier speaks on a radio at an outpost in Helmand province, December 20, 2015. PHOTO: REUTERS
There is some confusion as to whether the Taliban have taken the town of Sangin in the northwest of the Afghan province of Helmand, with government officials contradicting one another regarding on-the-ground developments. There are reports that key locations within and around the town fell to the Taliban on December 20 and other reports that the British and Americans have deployed Special Forces to the town in an effort to support the Afghan National Army. Clarity will doubtless emerge in coming days, but what is obvious is that militarily, the Taliban are sustaining their advance on a number of fronts. If they take and hold Sangin, it will consolidate their position in the south and west of the country and Kandahar may be anticipated to be within their reach. Sangin is in a remote location and of more symbolic than strategic value to the Taliban. It is at the heart of the poppy industry and a hub for the movement of raw opium, a significant income generator for the Taliban.
The Americans suffered their biggest blow for many months when a Taliban suicide bomber killed six soldiers on a foot patrol at the Bagram air base close to Kabul. Against this background of activity, the Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif is likely to visit before December 30 and there is hope on the Afghan side that the battered peace process can somehow be revived. There can be no peace process — or agreement — unless the Taliban in their many iterations are at the table where final positions are decided. They will want to negotiate from a position of strength and a push to ‘take and hold’ makes strategic sense for them.
The most optimistic Afghan officials are anticipating a resumption of talks within two weeks, with meetings being held in Pakistan that include American and Chinese representatives, and we wish them well. General Raheel Sharif once again finds himself as point-man for a crucial foreign policy task. If he can bring the Taliban to the table, there may just be a chance of pausing action on the battlefield, but as things stand now, prospects of Helmand staying in control of the Afghan government are looking dim.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 23rd, 2015.
The Americans suffered their biggest blow for many months when a Taliban suicide bomber killed six soldiers on a foot patrol at the Bagram air base close to Kabul. Against this background of activity, the Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif is likely to visit before December 30 and there is hope on the Afghan side that the battered peace process can somehow be revived. There can be no peace process — or agreement — unless the Taliban in their many iterations are at the table where final positions are decided. They will want to negotiate from a position of strength and a push to ‘take and hold’ makes strategic sense for them.
The most optimistic Afghan officials are anticipating a resumption of talks within two weeks, with meetings being held in Pakistan that include American and Chinese representatives, and we wish them well. General Raheel Sharif once again finds himself as point-man for a crucial foreign policy task. If he can bring the Taliban to the table, there may just be a chance of pausing action on the battlefield, but as things stand now, prospects of Helmand staying in control of the Afghan government are looking dim.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 23rd, 2015.