Opportunities knocking at our door
Pakistan cannot avail the new opportunities if the outdated mindset on the part of policymakers aren’t discarded
The writer is an independent political and defence analyst. He is also the author of several books, monographs and articles on Pakistan and South Asian affairs
The recent global and regional politicking has created a situation for Pakistan that can be described as an extraordinary opportunity to reduce dependence on external economic funding and loans, and control extremism and terrorism inside Pakistan. This can usher in an era of internal prosperity, stability and diplomatic clout at the international level. The three opportunities are: 1) the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on the Chinese initiative; 2) the major powers, such as the US and China and other participants of the Heart of Asia Conference wanting Pakistan to play an active role in the stabilisation of Afghanistan; 3) the decision, in principle, by Pakistan and India to initiate a new Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue, which reflects a major shift in India’s aggressive approach towards Pakistan. The softening of India’s Pakistan policy has been caused partly by the increased internal political difficulties of the Modi government and partly by the persuasion of the US and the UK.
Pakistan can turn its geographic location into an asset by becoming the bridge for economic and trade connections in Central Asia, Western China, the Middle East and South Asia. The CPEC, connecting Gwadar with Kashgar, can turn Pakistan’s economy around because it does not simply mean modern roads; it also involves setting up important industry along the corridor route and turning Gwadar into the seaport of the 21st century. All this brings employment and prosperity to the region and to Balochistan especially. This road system needs to be connected with the Central Asian states through Afghanistan. Furthermore, plans to implement CASA-1000 to get electricity from Central Asia need to be pursued. Two gas pipeline projects, the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project and the Tapi project, can boost our economy. If these gas pipelines run through Pakistan, China can be interested in getting gas from these networks.
If we contribute to building peace in Afghanistan by facilitating an understanding between some Afghan Taliban groups and the Kabul government, it would be a prudent approach to stabilise not only Afghanistan but help Pakistan control terrorism within its own territory. This will also help us win the confidence and respect of the international community. Similarly, the new opening with India needs to be cashed in. Peace and stability on the Line of Control strengthens Pakistan’s security role in the tribal areas and on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The dialogue between the two South Asian neighbours is going to be a slow process because of the negative historical baggage and mutual distrust. However, both countries have no other option available to them for resolving their problems.
Pakistan cannot avail the new opportunities if the outdated mindset on the part of policymakers in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan itself aren’t discarded. They need to develop a unity of mind, keeping in view long-term interests with a focus on how the world is expected to transition in the next 20 years. The CPEC can become a victim of political bickering, as the federal government maintains ambiguities on various aspects of this project. There is a need to maintain complete transparency. The governor of State Bank of Pakistan has asked the government to be “more transparent” in its arrangements with China in building the Corridor. He said that “the details, terms and financing of many of the deals remain unclear. I do not know out of the $46 billion how much is debt, and how much is equity and how much is in kind.” A special authority should be created in the Prime Minister’s Secretariat to control all policies and decisions regarding the Corridor rather than different government departments dealing individually with Chinese companies. Alternatively, the Council of Common Interest should handle the project, provided it holds its meetings as per constitutional requirement.
The concerns of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan should be addressed because they fear that Punjab-based policymakers will short-change the two provinces. In Balochistan, road building work is going on but most of it is common to the proposed three routes, creating the fear that the western route (the shortest one) will be neglected for the eastern route, which would benefit Punjab the most. Furthermore, the Baloch concern is that the Corridor and the Gwadar projects will change the demography of Gwadar and areas along the route because people from other parts of Pakistan will inundate these regions. Some of these concerns may be exaggerated but these should be addressed by specific administrative actions, so that the interests of K-P and Balochistan are properly protected and the western route is not neglected.
Pakistan’s role as the peacemaker for Afghanistan depends on the official disposition towards the presence of some Afghan Taliban leaders and activists in our country. The security establishment has come to a clear conclusion that the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups of the country are a threat and that these must be contained completely. However, there is some ambiguity about the elements among the Afghan Taliban. The major question is that if the Afghan Taliban are at odds with Pakistan’s efforts towards establishing peace with Kabul, will they continue to use Pakistani territory? Another dilemma is that the Afghan Taliban have links with Afghan refugees based in Pakistan and the local Pakhtun population. A blatantly harsh policy can cause internal conflict in Pakistan, especially when religious parties invariably sympathise with the Afghan Taliban.
The Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue between India and Pakistan will be influenced by how the latter addresses the terrorism issue. The paragraph immediately before the declaration to resume the dialogue in the joint statement of December 9 mentions the need to address “all issues connected to terrorism” and that Pakistan assured the Indian side that steps are being taken “to expedite the early conclusion of the Mumbai trials”.
Pakistan’s political and military leaders will have to adopt definite measures to contain religious extremism and terrorism of all kinds, build public support for this policy and assert the primacy of the state on its territory in order to realise the full rewards of the new opportunities.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 14th, 2015.
Pakistan can turn its geographic location into an asset by becoming the bridge for economic and trade connections in Central Asia, Western China, the Middle East and South Asia. The CPEC, connecting Gwadar with Kashgar, can turn Pakistan’s economy around because it does not simply mean modern roads; it also involves setting up important industry along the corridor route and turning Gwadar into the seaport of the 21st century. All this brings employment and prosperity to the region and to Balochistan especially. This road system needs to be connected with the Central Asian states through Afghanistan. Furthermore, plans to implement CASA-1000 to get electricity from Central Asia need to be pursued. Two gas pipeline projects, the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project and the Tapi project, can boost our economy. If these gas pipelines run through Pakistan, China can be interested in getting gas from these networks.
If we contribute to building peace in Afghanistan by facilitating an understanding between some Afghan Taliban groups and the Kabul government, it would be a prudent approach to stabilise not only Afghanistan but help Pakistan control terrorism within its own territory. This will also help us win the confidence and respect of the international community. Similarly, the new opening with India needs to be cashed in. Peace and stability on the Line of Control strengthens Pakistan’s security role in the tribal areas and on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The dialogue between the two South Asian neighbours is going to be a slow process because of the negative historical baggage and mutual distrust. However, both countries have no other option available to them for resolving their problems.
Pakistan cannot avail the new opportunities if the outdated mindset on the part of policymakers in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan itself aren’t discarded. They need to develop a unity of mind, keeping in view long-term interests with a focus on how the world is expected to transition in the next 20 years. The CPEC can become a victim of political bickering, as the federal government maintains ambiguities on various aspects of this project. There is a need to maintain complete transparency. The governor of State Bank of Pakistan has asked the government to be “more transparent” in its arrangements with China in building the Corridor. He said that “the details, terms and financing of many of the deals remain unclear. I do not know out of the $46 billion how much is debt, and how much is equity and how much is in kind.” A special authority should be created in the Prime Minister’s Secretariat to control all policies and decisions regarding the Corridor rather than different government departments dealing individually with Chinese companies. Alternatively, the Council of Common Interest should handle the project, provided it holds its meetings as per constitutional requirement.
The concerns of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan should be addressed because they fear that Punjab-based policymakers will short-change the two provinces. In Balochistan, road building work is going on but most of it is common to the proposed three routes, creating the fear that the western route (the shortest one) will be neglected for the eastern route, which would benefit Punjab the most. Furthermore, the Baloch concern is that the Corridor and the Gwadar projects will change the demography of Gwadar and areas along the route because people from other parts of Pakistan will inundate these regions. Some of these concerns may be exaggerated but these should be addressed by specific administrative actions, so that the interests of K-P and Balochistan are properly protected and the western route is not neglected.
Pakistan’s role as the peacemaker for Afghanistan depends on the official disposition towards the presence of some Afghan Taliban leaders and activists in our country. The security establishment has come to a clear conclusion that the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups of the country are a threat and that these must be contained completely. However, there is some ambiguity about the elements among the Afghan Taliban. The major question is that if the Afghan Taliban are at odds with Pakistan’s efforts towards establishing peace with Kabul, will they continue to use Pakistani territory? Another dilemma is that the Afghan Taliban have links with Afghan refugees based in Pakistan and the local Pakhtun population. A blatantly harsh policy can cause internal conflict in Pakistan, especially when religious parties invariably sympathise with the Afghan Taliban.
The Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue between India and Pakistan will be influenced by how the latter addresses the terrorism issue. The paragraph immediately before the declaration to resume the dialogue in the joint statement of December 9 mentions the need to address “all issues connected to terrorism” and that Pakistan assured the Indian side that steps are being taken “to expedite the early conclusion of the Mumbai trials”.
Pakistan’s political and military leaders will have to adopt definite measures to contain religious extremism and terrorism of all kinds, build public support for this policy and assert the primacy of the state on its territory in order to realise the full rewards of the new opportunities.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 14th, 2015.