Pakistan’s re-emergence
The NSA talks and Sushma Swaraj’s visit exhibited the clear failure of India’s ‘Ignore Pakistan’ policy
The writer teaches at IT University Lahore and is the author of A Princely Affair: The Accession and Integration of the Princely States of Pakistan, 1947-55. He tweets at @BangashYK.
The first 10 days of December 2015 have been very momentous for Pakistan. If one sees them in isolation, it may seem that Pakistan is not an international pariah, but a well-respected, active and serious member of the international community — in fact, a big power. This should be the usual reality, of course.
The first week of December ended with a surprise meeting of the National Security Advisers (NSA) of Pakistan and India in Bangkok. This took everyone by surprise, even the people who are usually ‘in the know’. This event showed that the two countries — despite their rhetoric — realise that they have to talk to each other; there is simply no other option. On the Indian side, this development exhibited the clear failure of the ‘Ignore Pakistan’ policy and on the Pakistani side an acceptance that no matter what kind of government is in Delhi, Islamabad must talk. In terms of India, Pakistan is simply too big a neighbour to ignore. Both countries share a long border and, like it or not, are still tied by deep cultural and ethnic links — and these will not break for centuries. Hence, New Delhi can try to turn a blind eye towards Pakistan, but that will only exacerbate its own problems and showcase it as the petulant kid who refuses to talk to a brother living in the same house. So ignoring Pakistan won’t work. In the same vein, Pakistan has to talk to each and every government in Delhi — be it of the Congress, the BJP or of any other party. Pakistan has just too much to lose if it shuns engagement with India, in terms of Kashmir, water and trade, and so has to talk.
Further, both the NSA talks and the joint statement on starting the newly christened Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue reiterate that Pakistan and India have several issues to talk about, not just Kashmir or terrorism. India’s attempt to limit all talks to terrorism recoiled, with Pakistan refusing to accept dictation and the December 9 joint statement is testament of the change in India. While terrorism remains a major concern for both parties — and India must not forget that Pakistan is in a hot war with terrorists — boiling relations down to a one-point agenda was, quite simply, silly. Now that sense has prevailed, both countries have agreed to resume dialogue on all issues. On the Pakistani side, Islamabad has achieved a small victory by including Kashmir as a matter of dispute. The recognition by the BJP-led government that Kashmir is an international dispute is a success for Pakistan. However, rather than basking in the glory, Islamabad should now focus on ensuring that the dispute does get resolved sooner rather than later, based on either the Musharraf formula or some amended form of it. The fact that India actually possesses large parts of Jammu and Kashmir makes it a stronger party and it can afford to continue the status quo, so the onus is on Pakistan to find a solution that is acceptable to both countries, as well as to the Kashmiri people on both sides of the Line of Control. That said, India recognises that if the Kashmir dispute is not resolved, it will never emerge truly as an international power, and therefore there is pressure on New Delhi too. A high-ranking Indian diplomat once told me that the biggest hurdle between India and a permanent seat at the UN Security Council is Kashmir, and so it is in the country’s interest to resolve the issue too. The word ‘bilateral’ in the declaration is also significant, since it reemphasises the point that disputes between India and Pakistan can only be resolved if the two talk directly. While other countries might nudge them along this path, ultimately, discussions must happen between the two. India has long advocated this, and the declaration is an acceptance of the norm.
Finally, the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process conference in Pakistan has again re-centred the discussion of Afghanistan in its proper context. The talks between Afghan President Ghani and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have been significant and show the willingness and resolve to help Afghanistan become a secure, stable and prosperous nation. Here again is a chance for Pakistan and India to work together in Afghanistan for its peace and stability. We might not agree on everything in Afghanistan, but at least Islamabad and New Delhi should talk about it — that is an important first step. The start of December 2015 has been good for Pakistan; let us not lose this momentum.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 12th, 2015.
The first week of December ended with a surprise meeting of the National Security Advisers (NSA) of Pakistan and India in Bangkok. This took everyone by surprise, even the people who are usually ‘in the know’. This event showed that the two countries — despite their rhetoric — realise that they have to talk to each other; there is simply no other option. On the Indian side, this development exhibited the clear failure of the ‘Ignore Pakistan’ policy and on the Pakistani side an acceptance that no matter what kind of government is in Delhi, Islamabad must talk. In terms of India, Pakistan is simply too big a neighbour to ignore. Both countries share a long border and, like it or not, are still tied by deep cultural and ethnic links — and these will not break for centuries. Hence, New Delhi can try to turn a blind eye towards Pakistan, but that will only exacerbate its own problems and showcase it as the petulant kid who refuses to talk to a brother living in the same house. So ignoring Pakistan won’t work. In the same vein, Pakistan has to talk to each and every government in Delhi — be it of the Congress, the BJP or of any other party. Pakistan has just too much to lose if it shuns engagement with India, in terms of Kashmir, water and trade, and so has to talk.
Further, both the NSA talks and the joint statement on starting the newly christened Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue reiterate that Pakistan and India have several issues to talk about, not just Kashmir or terrorism. India’s attempt to limit all talks to terrorism recoiled, with Pakistan refusing to accept dictation and the December 9 joint statement is testament of the change in India. While terrorism remains a major concern for both parties — and India must not forget that Pakistan is in a hot war with terrorists — boiling relations down to a one-point agenda was, quite simply, silly. Now that sense has prevailed, both countries have agreed to resume dialogue on all issues. On the Pakistani side, Islamabad has achieved a small victory by including Kashmir as a matter of dispute. The recognition by the BJP-led government that Kashmir is an international dispute is a success for Pakistan. However, rather than basking in the glory, Islamabad should now focus on ensuring that the dispute does get resolved sooner rather than later, based on either the Musharraf formula or some amended form of it. The fact that India actually possesses large parts of Jammu and Kashmir makes it a stronger party and it can afford to continue the status quo, so the onus is on Pakistan to find a solution that is acceptable to both countries, as well as to the Kashmiri people on both sides of the Line of Control. That said, India recognises that if the Kashmir dispute is not resolved, it will never emerge truly as an international power, and therefore there is pressure on New Delhi too. A high-ranking Indian diplomat once told me that the biggest hurdle between India and a permanent seat at the UN Security Council is Kashmir, and so it is in the country’s interest to resolve the issue too. The word ‘bilateral’ in the declaration is also significant, since it reemphasises the point that disputes between India and Pakistan can only be resolved if the two talk directly. While other countries might nudge them along this path, ultimately, discussions must happen between the two. India has long advocated this, and the declaration is an acceptance of the norm.
Finally, the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process conference in Pakistan has again re-centred the discussion of Afghanistan in its proper context. The talks between Afghan President Ghani and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have been significant and show the willingness and resolve to help Afghanistan become a secure, stable and prosperous nation. Here again is a chance for Pakistan and India to work together in Afghanistan for its peace and stability. We might not agree on everything in Afghanistan, but at least Islamabad and New Delhi should talk about it — that is an important first step. The start of December 2015 has been good for Pakistan; let us not lose this momentum.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 12th, 2015.