Hope for Libya

An agreement has been reached which requires the ratification of the rival parliaments in the war-torn nation

The Arab spring is one of the great misnomers of our time. Whatever may have been triggered by events in Tunisia, it was most certainly not anything spring-like, and the term is a Western construct rather than anything produced by those directly involved in this rolling debacle. Libya, once in the grip of Colonel Gaddafi and now in the grip of a broth of feuding warlords and terrorist groups that find its chaos a supportive and sustaining environment, is having yet another attempt to resolve the unresolvable. There are two parliaments, two governments, one of them internationally recognised and the other not. A spokesman for the (unrecognised) General National Congress (GNC) said on December 6 that an agreement had been reached which requires the ratification of the rival parliaments. The (recognised) House of Representatives and the GNC had been in discussion for several days, and the hope is that within a fortnight, Libya’s chronic instability and riven political landscape will be healed.

Assuming the parliaments ratify the agreement, it will lead to a rewriting of the Constitution and a new representative body to replace the dysfunctional ‘two parliament’ system. A new prime minister will be nominated within 15 days — all of which is a very tall order indeed. An alliance of extremist militias overran Tripoli in August 2014 and drove the elected government into exile in the east of the country. At stake are the vast natural resources, which were the engine of the Libyan economy. Also at stake is the stability of a large part of West Africa as states to the south have noted a sharp rise in terrorist activity since the fall of Tripoli. Libya has ‘infected’ other states in the region and is likely to continue to do so whether or not the parliamentary crisis is resolved in the near future. The European Union is concerned about the possibility of infiltration by Libyan jihadis of the migrant/refugee stream currently flowing inwards. We wish success to those brokering positive change, and hope as well for a true ‘Arab spring’ in the future.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 10^th, 2015.

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