Pak-Afghan tensions: A perfect storm of strategic miscalculations, proxy wars and mistrust

In an open armed confrontation, the Taliban can’t compete with Pakistan's world-class defense capabilities. However, the Taliban are likely to continue employing asymmetric war tactics inside Pakistan through their allies, the Pakistani Taliban, posing significant internal security challenges for Pakistan.

This could also lead to more frequent and bold attacks by Pakistani Taliban affiliates, targeting urban areas of Pakistan, including deep into Punjab, which will likely be met with Pakistan's retaliatory response against Afghanistan.

And as expected, till the time of filing this article, all major factions of the Pakistani Taliban, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Itehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP), had announced plans to launch widespread attacks across Pakistan.

In an audio message, TTP leader Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud directed fighters to initiate attacks. "We emerged to defend the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Afghan Taliban), which is under attack by Pakistan, America's frontline ally. All mujahideen are instructed to seek 100-fold revenge".

Pakistan's continuous cross-border strikes inside Afghanistan, in response to the alleged use of Afghan soil for militant activities in Pakistan, could set an alarming precedent for the Taliban. This might lead to a situation where other neighboring countries take unilateral action against their perceived threats in Afghanistan, resultantly escalating regional tensions.

One positive aspect of the current escalation is that it might prompt more serious diplomatic engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, involving third countries, since previous efforts by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia haven't yielded results.

Siraj Haqqani, Afghanistan's powerful Interior Minister, Deputy Leader of the overall Taliban movement, and guerrilla war mastermind, responded to Pakistan's strikes in Afghanistan during a Friday sermon at a crowded mosque in Khost. He cautioned his followers not to be driven by emotions, advising that "Afghans do not take revenge in a single day," and stressing the importance of patience, tolerance, and courage in seeking revenge.

Haqqani's comments suggest the Taliban might opt for guerrilla war tactics, playing to their strengths, as opposed to the open armed confrontation strategy led by Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob, which has backfired.

Such a potential shift in strategy, if it occurs, will likely give Siraj Haqqani more prominence, overshadowing Mullah Yaqoob's open confrontational approach against Pakistan.

Currently, there is a noticeable division within the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban on how to respond to Pakistan. While many advocate intensifying asymmetric attacks on Pakistan by expanding the theatre of operations, others suggest maintaining a steady but manageable intensity.

Several Pakistani and Afghan Taliban affiliates have posted on encrypted channels, cautioning that excessive escalation could undermine years of efforts and invite major backlash from Pakistan and the international community.

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan made grave strategic miscalculations about each other. Pakistan, which had supported the Taliban for years, expected that once the Taliban came into power, they would address Pakistan's security concerns emanating from Afghanistan, but since the Taliban came into power in 2021, Pakistan's top officials, both publicly and privately, have declared the Taliban-led Afghan interim government a grave national security threat.

On the other hand, the Taliban, due to their rigid ideological framework, led themselves to falsely believe that they could undermine Pakistan's strategic importance and capabilities, both regionally and globally. Both calculations failed badly.

Pakistan's significance as a crucial geographical, economic and diplomatic gateway for Afghanistan was ignored by the Taliban. Consequently, the Taliban is now facing growing international isolation and increasing global concerns about their links with terrorist groups, as they are accused of hosting them.

This vulnerability has become increasingly evident since 2022, as Pakistan has conducted consistent airstrikes, sometimes acknowledged and sometimes not, inside Afghanistan, even targeting its capital, Kabul, twice. However, international criticism has remained largely muted, showing a lack of global diplomatic protection for the Taliban administration.

The ongoing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has suffered another significant setback, as the window for possible third-party mediation appears to be closing, at least for the time being. Yesterday's large-scale strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries, have made it increasingly unlikely for Turkey or Gulf nations to intervene and broker peace between Islamabad and Kabul.

This regional instability further complicates efforts to de-escalate tensions between the two countries, which are getting more deeply entangled in conflict with each passing day.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist and analyst who extensively covers militancy, Jihadist movements and other related security issues in the region and beyond