The geopolitical implications of the Iran-Israel conflict

On April 14^th, Iran carried out aerial strikes across Israel in retaliation to the latter’s bombing of Iranian consulate in Damascus two weeks earlier. Although the barrage of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles failed to achieve any tactical or operational objectives (as per independent media), the attack itself signifies an escalation of a conflict that has the potential to propagate its ramifications throughout the entirety of Middle east, ultimately permeating and impacting the global landscape as a whole. The blog aims to look into the events leading up to this escalation and its future geopolitical implications.

It is important to recognise that while the strikes on April 14^th mark first direct strike by Iran on Israeli territory originating from "Iranian soil", Iran's alleged foreign proxies such as Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah have been engaging in hostilities against Israel for an extended period. Rocket and missile attacks originating from Lebanon and Gaza, as well as targeting of Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, demonstrate a pattern of escalating indirect confrontations by Iran against Israel, notably intensified during the recent Israel-Palestine conflict.

Nonetheless, Israel has also consistently undermined Iranian interests in the region through a range of indirect actions, including espionage and targeted assassinations, reflecting a substantial history of Israeli aggression towards Iran. However, Israel's airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1^st caused concern amongst the global players due to its perceived excessiveness and effects achieved. In contemporary era, where national prestige, ambitions, perceptions and aspirations are significantly influenced by social media platforms, nation’s prime objective is to achieve a “Notion of Victory” in any conflict. To this end, Iran’s retaliatory strikes were imminent, so was the Israel’s response.

In an era dominated by strategic partnerships and global alliances, the extent to which these belligerents are prepared, or permitted, to escalate the conflict will now hinge on the willingness of global stakeholders to bear the costs associated with the conflict. Macroeconomic consequences of such a conflict would reverberate globally, with volatile fluctuations expected in stock markets, as well as bond and equity markets experiencing declines. The price of crude oil, already hovering around $91 per barrel, is anticipated to escalate further amidst heightened uncertainty. A sustained decrease in oil supply, coupled with escalating prices, is poised to fuel inflation and could prove catastrophic for the struggling economies of the world.

More specifically, a country like Pakistan which is already embroiled in economic, political and security issues, where ripples are felt with a slightest turn in global events, will not be able to sustain the after-effects for long.

The strategic alliances in the context of this conflict are precarious and fraught with uncertainty. Militarily, the United States and the United Kingdom extended assistance to Israel amidst the Iranian strikes, while a majority of European nations standing in solidarity with Israel. On the contrary, Russia and China are overtly backing Iran, joined by a significant number of Muslim countries aligning with Iran. The already divided global landscape, exacerbated by the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is poised to undergo further polarisation.

The looming question then arises: are we on the brink of an apocalyptic World War III? Alternatively, a more pertinent question is whether global stakeholders are prepared to bear the costs of such a conflict. Encouragingly, the response to this question emerges as the sole optimistic outcome of the turmoil. However, the prospect of the entire Middle East transitioning into a proxy battleground for major world powers is the most perilous future scenario.

As for the inhabitants of Gaza, the epicentre of the conflict, a bleak outlook persists devoid of any glimmer of hope. Their enduring plight may intensify further, particularly in light of Israel garnering increased sympathy following Iranian strikes. Israel's potential escalation of attacks on Gaza could exacerbate the suffering of its populace. However, given it has no direct impact on global players, there appears to be a stark lack of empathy and concern for their plight.