It’s all in the timing: The fallout from Imran Khan’s Russia visit

Ring the bells, sound the alarms, because Imran Khan has committed diplomatic suicide!

Really?

Beat the drums for he has triggered a historic change in global alliances!

Perhaps?

Wake up, the rifts in government-military relations are more explicit than ever!

They are?

Praise the Lord for America’s Indo-Pacific ambitions have been contained with the rapidly developing Russia-Pakistan-China nexus!

Surely?

Fear not, for Pakistan’s energy crisis will be a crisis no longer!

Certainly?

Relax, the visit doesn’t concern Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, we are a sovereign nation!

Probably?

Celebrate, for the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) white listing is now in our near future via Russian backing!

Is it?

This is history in play; the old tunes of the ‘liberal’ and communist divide will once again have the center stage!

Maybe?

A bold move by the captain, a stupid move by the leader, a last ditch effort to remain in power by the weakened prime minister – which one is it? Exploring all the narratives surrounding the PM’s recent visit to Russia will make anyone’s head spin. The situation turns direr when the ordeal is painted in grey and not merely termed right or wrong.

Hence, let us comprehensively analyse not just the two sides of the coin but also all its grooves and ridges – let us make sense of the grey.

The looks of it

There are two major arguments concerning Khan’s meeting with the Russian president. The first argues that it was a bilateral visit which does not concern the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The second – although Khan negated Islamabad’s involvement in any bloc – him physically being in Russia at the onslaught of the violent crisis says otherwise. The first argument downplays the prime minister’s visit at the international level, the second gives it an inflated pessimist air. One thing which the visit was not was unimportant – in terms of optics or bilateral cooperation.

In a globalised world where most media outlets are out for blood, the visit could not have come at a worse time, especially given that the West – whose loans drive Pakistan’s economy – has explicitly revealed its blatant hatred for Putin’s politics. Although Islamabad maintains giving ‘peace a chance’ as a part of its foreign policy, the timing to talk about peace as the country you’ve been given a red carpet welcome in declares war on its neighbour, was off. Since the Army Chief was visiting Islamabad’s western allies just as Khan was in Russia, it isn’t likely that the effects of Russia’s tarnished global repute would be as severe on Pakistan. That is, unless, Islamabad, going against all intelligent norms, changes its policy and becomes a part of a bloc in the coming days.

The visit, at most, will have short-term consequences for Pakistan in the form of an already diminishing media frenzy, unless tensions escalate. It did look bad, yes, but Pakistan has been a part of the western lobby ever since its first coup. The national alliances are unlikely to change at a rapid pace even if Khan’s idiosyncratic form of governance catered by his criticism of the West gnaws for office as elections come closer. The visit might just be a bilateral one, like Islamabad claims it is – not meant to be read into – but one thing is certain: one wrong move now could cost Khan his position, Pakistan its stability, and Islamabad its western lobby.

A state of transition

As a global player, Pakistan is in a state of transition, not only as a country but as an important regional contender. According to Barry Buzan’s regional security complex theory, the security of a region and its changing alliances effect countries within the complex at a preliminary level. The history of South Asia has been shaped by the historic India-Pakistan rivalry and their respective Russian and western allies. These alliances no longer work for Pakistan; not in Afghanistan, not on international forums (FATF, etc.). With the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) set to uplift not only Pakistan’s economy but its status as a state, Pakistan has been forced to seek out new partnerships. Russia is a major part of this transition. The historic cooperation between Russia and India has been somewhat iced over by the rising Indo-US nexus. Russia, a close friend of China, has also been made to rethink its regional allies.

Given the South Asian security complex, Pakistan is the next best option. The foreign policy ramifications of Khan’s visit are likely to manifest themselves in the upcoming years wherein the world will witness a change in Pakistan’s global alliances. Though the West has been a traditional ally of Pakistan, in a realist paradigm, these friends aren’t reliable anymore because the transactions have been done and dusted primarily in form of the Afghan fallout. If the world is to change, Pakistan is one country which will play a major part in rewriting history.

The importance of the visit

Pakistan is going through a severe energy crisis, inflation is soaring, government alliances are disintegrating, radial elements have re-emerged, Narendra Modi’s India is polarising, and America’s Indo-Pacific ambitions no longer pivot on Pakistan’s geo-strategic position. In short, it’s a bad time to be in-charge, especially if you’ve never played this game before. The issues on the agenda during Khan’s visit involved the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, regional dynamics, Islamophobia, security cooperation and counterterrorism. Given the region’s current dynamics vis-à-vis Afghanistan and developments regarding Muslims across the globe, these topics are ripe for discussion.

The “$2.5 billion Pakistan Stream natural gas pipeline that Moscow wants to build between the port of Karachi and Kasur, around 650 miles north in the heart of Punjab province” had the centre stage; a much needed one as Pakistan’s energy crisis worsens. It was intimated that 90% of the issues regarding the project were resolved; however, with new sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran’s nuclear talks at a standstill, the project still faces the same problems it did several years ago. Though the issues were important to discuss, life-line worthy too, there isn’t much that can happen for their resolution or progression given the international climate.

The wrong in the right

In the strictest sense of the word, Pakistan is a sovereign state – free to make its own decisions, free to do as it pleases. One thing which we forget at times like these is that states, no matter how powerful or weak, do not operate in isolation. The words of a leader are heard everywhere, their nature has consequences. Even if the world wasn’t constantly watching, the pulsating and volatile nature of international relations should be enough to compel policymakers to give a second thought to scheduled visits as per changing international dynamics. Especially if it can have ramifications which can trigger a negative reaction from your seasoned allies – allies whom you’re still in business with. Pakistan is changing, and with a change in personality comes a justifiable change in friends. But this isn’t a Turkish soap opera, this is a weak state making impassioned decisions with a clear lack of understanding of not only global politics but the sharp contrast in organisational grievances and sympathies at the national level as well. Change comes as a cost; a cost which Pakistan may not have the soft power to bear. The visit shows a clear shift in Pakistan’s stance, the cost of which is yet to manifest.