Opinion

Time to take a closer look at Central Asia

India needs transit route to Central Asia so badly that it might even revisit the proposed four-step Kashmir solution

M Ziauddin April 07, 2015

The writer served as Executive Editor of The Express Tribune from 2009 to 2014

With the economic and financial sanctions against Iran expected to be lifted soon and Afghanistan seemingly moving towards a measure of stability, it is time we took a closer look at the mineral-rich and energy-abundant Central Asian region to see what is happening in the countries located in close proximity to Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Turkmenistan has the fourth-largest natural gas reserves in the world; Kazakhstan has the second-largest oil reserves of the former Soviet Union, second only to Russia; Uzbekistan is a major producer of uranium (as is Kazakhstan) and has large natural gas reserves, as does, quite likely, Tajikistan; and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have significant hydropower potential. And the natural beauty of these two countries could boost a lucrative tourism sector, as could Uzbekistan’s great Silk Road cities of Samarkand, Bohkhara and Khiva.

Big neighbour and our all-weather friend China’s economic influence is growing in the region at a fast pace. Beijing is very active in the region with its ambitious plans to advance Asian connectivity through overland and maritime routes. It is said to have committed tens of billions of dollars to building roads and rails to better connect its factories and markets in Asia and Europe. But that, it is believed, would only be possible if Afghanistan can connect its economy to the countries of Central Asia and South Asia, to China and to Europe, serving as a hub for regional energy markets and with reliable trade and transport links, benefiting the entire region.

Afghanistan expects to become a platform for cooperation in a vast region that extends from India to Azerbaijan and beyond. There is the Lapis Lazuli Corridor as well which would run through Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, across the Caspian to Georgia, and on to Turkey and Europe. China supports Afghanistan’s transition; and it warily guards against extremist ideology among its youth.

Central Asia is located in close proximity to Iran, a country that shares many ancient cultural and economic ties with the region. And if the thaw in its relations with the US develops into business-like ties in times to come, Tehran would find itself in a position to serve as a gateway to Europe, as well as a gateway to India. Iran would also be able to help its Central Asian neighbours in water conservation, combating desertification and curbing drug trafficking. And Turkey is also very much interested in the region, given the Turkic influences there. At the time of disintegration of the Soviet Union, Turkey had declared its intentions to exploit its Turkic influence to gain an economic foothold in the region.

The US, our friend but not of the all-weather variety, is already helping to build a regional energy market to connect Central Asia’s tremendous supplies of natural gas and hydropower to 1.6 billion energy-hungry consumers in South Asia. The US support for the CASA-1000 electricity line is expected to help bring surplus hydro-electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan — where over 80 million people lack access to electricity. That’s why, as part of the New Silk Road initiative, the US is helping develop the region’s connectivity — improving trade and transport infrastructure, standardising customs and border procedures, and strengthening the links between energy producers and consumers. The US is also supporting Kazakhstan’s efforts to join Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members of the World Trade Organisation, and it is expected that this long-sought goal would be realised this year.

The US does not see China’s involvement in Central Asia in zero-sum terms. Its development of infrastructure in Central Asia is being regarded in Washington as fully complementary to US efforts. And in particular, the US sees an important role for China in supporting the transition in Afghanistan and advancing its own integration into the broader Asia region.

Where is Pakistan in this emerging economic and trade equation in a neighbouring region? As of today, no one seems to be even aware of our existence. And the reason why this is so is our continued refusal to see the tremendous economic potential for Pakistan in allowing India a transit route to Central Asia. India seemingly needs the route so badly that it would even be prepared perhaps, to revisit the proposed four-step Kashmir solution.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 8^th, 2015.

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COMMENTS (13)

sanjeev | 9 years ago | Reply @sterry: What Pakistan can export to central Asia ? Terrorists and Taliban ? And when India has Chabbar port and route through POK it only has to dismember Pakistan. As you said the whole population cannot be kept hostage, you are bound to lose Baluchistan and Sindh and Pakhtoon areas near to Afghanistan (as they do not recognise Durand line). So pieces of Pakistan will not pose any problem and Kashmir can at best be another trifurcated piece. Ladakkah and Jammu will not want to join hands with muslim areas. So take it to the logical conclusion if you have vision.

sterry | 9 years ago | Reply @Gp65: The reality is that Pakistan should develop its links with Central Asia and the Middle East. It does not have to trade with India but India itself will beg Pakistan when the time is ripe. Frankly in today's world, no one can keep an entire population hostage and there is no indication that Kashmiris will ever identify with India in the occupied Indian part. At the end of the day Muslim majority Kashmir will always align itself with Pakistan due to religious, cultural, historical and geographical regions. They key for Pakistan is just to stick to its principled position and let events take care of themselves in a changing world.

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Gp65 | 9 years ago | Reply " India seemingly needs the route so badly that it would even be prepared perhaps, to revisit the proposed four-step Kashmir solution." India has 2 options to Afghanistan: - land route through Pakistan or - Chhabahar port through Iran No doubt the route through Pakistan is cheaper but it has to be weighed against signing an agreement with a country who has a track record of not honoring its commitments. Also the 4 point plan on Kashmir suggested by Musharraf was unacceptable to Pakistani army. This is why it did not progress once Musharraf had left. After all Manmohan Singh was very much around for 5 years and yet there was no progress. The current BJP government has certainly shown no desperation in negotiating with Pakistan. So it is unclear how and why the highly respected author reached the conclusion he did.

unbelievable | 9 years ago | Reply @Pnpuri: Most of that traffic was diverted from Pakistan long ago .. now the demand is down significantly. Day late - dollar short.

Indian | 9 years ago | Reply @Mr.Ziaudin India doesn't look at hydrocarbon anymore . Mr.Modi's India look at clean energy, solar, hydro,nuclear and wind energy . So far hydrocarbon is concerned, India might end up in getting abundant shale gas in its own territory . Compromise on Kashmir...go and wash your face properly, perhaps you are still drunk .

Pnpuri | 9 years ago | Reply Till now Pakistan is a transient route to Afghanistan for.United states and NATO armies and its economy is substantially dependent on same. Once US armies withdraw from Afghanistan, the trucks plying for US army will become redundant unless Pakistan allows some other country to use it as transient route. India will certainly gain if such transient is permitted, but so will be Pakistan. Iran Pakistan India pipeline did not happen because of similar attitude of Pakistan. Why make relations between two countries dependent on Kashmir

Shakti | 9 years ago | Reply The only thing to discuss is how to solve the PoK issue.

sanjeev | 9 years ago | Reply As per the IMF report, Indian economy will over take China in GDP growth very soon. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/11474914/India-to-overtake-China-as-fastest-growing-large-economy-says-IMF.html India can have direct access to central Asia through Pak Occupied Kashmir and Chabbar port. So India does not need to compromise on Kashmir. In fact, India will ensure that Pakistan will be sucked in the Middle East conflict and implode having 20% Shia population. With hostile borders on three sides, and friends like America, very soon stumbling block of Pakistan will be removed. There will be small pieces who will concentrate on economic well being of its people rather than nonsense of Kashmir and Islam. Time is ripe now to nullify international politics on 1947. With the nuclear deal with Iran, Pakistan has lost its leverage. It will be considered case for elimination because of its nuisance value and no positive contribution for any one.

Dilip Sapan | 9 years ago | Reply Even at the end of the day (like this very article), an erudite gentleman like the above author just cannot escape from the same malady as most of his countryfolk: Obsession with Kashmir. Pity!

M Saleem Chaudhry | 9 years ago | Reply Kudos for Mr. Ziauddin , an enlightened and seasoned journalist for a comprehensive update about the ground realities of the region to trigger necessary awareness in Pakistani leaders about the scope and potential of economic growth through timely interaction with all those concerned parties at the earliest possible. Joint thinking and planning of Irani and Turk president is reflective of the initiative of visionary leadership for resolving conflicts and bringing stability and peace for the benefit of all concerned. He ( Ziauddin) has clearly depicted the role of China and USA in connecting the producers of energy in the region with the needy consumers to build a conducive environment for the economic growth of regional players and world at large. Our rulers need to pick this lead and do what they can to make the best of the prevailing situation for the good of our country instead of remaining focused to wheeling dealing with a few chosen for their own kickbacks and personal interests

Toticalling | 9 years ago | Reply We should be more interested to see how our eastern neighbour is getting more and importance in the world.On Friday, India’s new prime minister, Narendra Modi, touches down in Paris. There, a treat awaits: President François Hollande will take him on a romantic boat ride along the Seine, after which the two men hope to cut a few big deals. Next on Modi’s itinerary is Angela Merkel. She is giving him star treatment: the two leaders will jointly open Hanover’s enormous trade fair.This shows how India is gaining strength when Pakistan is discussing involvement in Yemen which will only diminish its limited influence. As the author says, Iran will be a different country after the sanctions are removed, its economic strength improving considerably. Pakistan should look at the wider picture.

mahakaalchakra | 9 years ago | Reply @Author "India seemingly needs the route so badly that it would even be prepared perhaps, to revisit the proposed four-step Kashmir solution" Sir, you are mistaken about India of 2015.

BruteForce | 9 years ago | Reply Has the Author been in hibernation for the past 5 years? US is scheduled to be the biggest exporter of Oil by 2035. That is why the Crude Oil rate has dropped today. Currently there is surplus Oil in the market and the prices have dropped. The world is not deprived of hydrocarbons anymore. The future is Reneweable energy, cheap energy. We already see Electric Cars from Tesla. We will see one from Apple in 2020. The thing with Technology is once there is a crack, it explodes! Within a decade nearly every phone ever manufactured in a touch screen, after Steve Jobs introduced last decade. When Cars turn green in the next 20 to 30 years, which are the biggest users of hydrocarbons, who would need Oil and Gas? The building of the pipeline is a pipedream considering Pakistan and Afghanistan and other Muslim countries can never fix their problems. The news on the market is bet on companies working on renewable tech as great wonders are expected this decade. India would not compromise on Kashmir on 19th century era resource. Good luck.

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