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With US in pursuit, Zawahiri a dead man walking: Experts
US experts say Zawahiri probably in Pakistan, his days are likely numbered.
US experts say Zawahiri's elimination would be a devastating blow to al Qaeda's central command. PHOTO: AFP/ FILE
WASHINGTON: Al Qaeda chief Aymanal Zawahiri is a man with a price on his head, and whether he is on the move or has gone to ground, probably in Pakistan, his days are likely numbered, US experts say.
After the killing of Osama bin Laden in May in a secret raid deep in Pakistan by US elite commandos, Zawahiri took over at the head of the organisation behind the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Elimination of the co-founder of the militant organisation would be a devastating blow to al Qaeda’s central command, and Zawahiri is being relentlessly pursued by the United States, say experts.
“A missile could strike him anywhere, day or night, at any time,” said psychiatrist Marc Sageman, a former CIA agent in Pakistan and author of “Leaderless Jihad.”
“If he waits too long in the same place he runs the risk of being spotted. But if he moves it’s worse, he becomes even more vulnerable. It’s an untenable position.”
It was by slowly piecing together the trail of his only authorised contact that Bin Laden was pinpointed and then killed during the US helicopter-borne raid on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
That precedent should haunt Zawahiri’s days and nights, said Thomas Hegghammer, a terrorism specialist at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.
“Bin Laden was very cautious but he had to maintain a certain amount of contact with the organisation. And it got him killed,” Hegghammer told AFP during a conference in Washington on al Qaeda after Bin Laden.
“I think al Zawahiri is doing the same, with even a lower profile, being more careful of who he is talking to,” he said.
Yet speaking to contacts is vital if he wants to retain some influence. “And every time he is doing it, he is taking a life-threatening risk. He has a choice: fading away or risking his life,” Hegghammer added.
“He knows the CIA is working hard on him. He is on borrowed time. They will take him out. Tomorrow, in two months or in two years. But they will get him, too,” he said.
Unquestionably, the most effective weapon in the US war against al Qaeda has been the CIA’s secret – and thus never officially acknowledged – drone campaign targeting key extremists in Pakistan.
But in a worrying setback for the drone program, US relations with Islamabad have plummeted since the Bin Laden raid, most recently over the killing of 24 Pakistani troops in a US air strike near the Afghan border.
Under Pakistani orders, the United States over the weekend vacated Pakistan’s Shamsi air base where the CIA’s drones were reportedly based.
Experts say the loss of the Shamsi base is not insurmountable, as drones can be flown from Afghanistan.
But the drone strikes, once a daily occurrence, appear to have been on hold since mid-November, and it is unclear when they will resume, said Andrew Liebovitch, an expert at the New America Foundation.
“US and Pakistani officials have said that Shamsi was being used mostly for maintenance and support operations, and that operations were shifted away from Shamsi following the May raid that killed Osama bin Laden,” he said.
“What poses more of a threat to drone operations is the possibility that Pakistani forces will shoot down drones operating over Pakistani territory,” Liebovitch added.
But drones are still the handiest US weapon to deploy against Zawahiri, should he be located, and Douglas Lute, Obama’s principal advisor on Afghanistan and Pakistan, insists US strategy will not change.
“We need to go for the KO (knock-out) punch. I would not adjust today programs that are designed for the KO punch. I’m not going to shift any gear in the next six months when we have the chance of a lifetime,” Lute said.
According to Brian Fishman, an expert at the New America Foundation and the Combating Terrorism Center at US military academy West Point: “Al Zawahiri is going to get killed someday. I don’t know when. I didn’t expect bin Laden to last as long as he did.”
“If you are al Zawahiri you know what is going on. You spend all your time and energy surviving. Survive to speak on the Internet another day,” he said. “You don’t know who you can trust, you watch over your shoulder, see traitors everywhere.”
The US hot pursuit has the al Qaeda chief “on the run,” Fishman added.
“He only can speak on camera, for broadcast on extremist websites. He can’t take part in any large plot, it would kill him,” he said.
Reader Comments (24)
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I hope he is taken out, dont really care who takes this maniac out but he needs to be killed. The reason is because of this man & his master, Islam has sufferred, given a bad name!
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Why do all these al-qaieda people have to die in our country? Why can’t they go and die in their own country.
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another Abbottabad like operation is expected. no video, no image, just a CIA story…alzawahiri has been killed during an us raid at Karachi and his body has been dumped in Arabian sea. and CIA controlled media would spread it as reality.
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@Shahryar Ahmed:
fully agree…better get rid of thisRecommend
Why not wait another 8 months or so? The US presidential elections in only 11 months away….
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It is pathetic Pakistan has become the breeding ground and sanctuary of these kind of people. They belong to places like Saudi Arabia, Yemen, UAE but yet Pakistan and its green passport gets the bad name whenever they are caught or killed.
Pakistan should come out of this Jihad mindset that has destroyed this country while the actual money suppliers (ARABS) are partying in the night clubs of Newyork, London, Dubai.
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New fiction from America, what a petty that they and CIA write fiction and their media make a hype about it to so that they can deceive American people for more tax collection. I feel petty for american people…Recommend
Dear USA please come and get rid us of this man as well like that of OBL. Please.Recommend
yes i personally support to get him out not that i am against him because today the fire in our homeland is due to him. if the person like alzaware and ossama are so found in jahhad then why they people opperate this in there own land. due to their presence in pakistan and afghanistan, the super power will come insearch of them. ultimately the people of the area will crushed. these people had proned our homeland into battle field.
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why still after 10 years or so this guy isnt changed a signle bit same …
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Vienna,December 15,2011
I am impressed.So many versions of one Q´ran,god´s message.
For Zawahiri that multi version god´s message is simplified
and important. Death is part of that message.Who cares for
explosions?
Taravadu Taranga Trust for Media Monitoring TTTMM India
–Kulamarva Balakrishna
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@ Shahryar
which kind of Islam???
moderate islam ???
by the why, is there Al-Qaeda available in IRAQ b4 US invasion ???
Read the Quranic text before concluding any thing.
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Go Zawahiri Go!
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@Hussain:
“I feel petty for american people…”
You should, of course, feel petty if you ARE “petty”. Before you expect to be taken seriously, learn to take yourself seriously. Lesson 1: Learn how to correctly express yourself!
@M. Ahmed:
“Go Zawahiri Go!”
I am a little confused. Are you rooting him on, or, wishing he were dead?
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@Hussain:
you think that all the things happening around you. killing of pakistani people by taliban and obl fiasco was unreal? there was a raid, which went on for half an hour, everyone in the neighborhood came out seeing seals going in and coming out with body but army was sleeping and snoring loudly that they couldnt even hear a chopper going down and bombing of walls of compound.
al zawahari is a threat for all and not just non muslim world. you should better support his ouster.
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We have seen the results of not taking seriously the early threats from Al-Qaeda. We have seen the damage they are capable of causing, if left unchecked! The death of OBL sends a clear warning to those looking to follow in his footsteps. Al Zawahiri is the “commander-in-chief” now leading the terrorist organization responsible for murdering thousands around the world. The bombing of Al khobar towers in Saudi Arabia, the attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, and the Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Kenya are all attributed to Al-Qaeda’s terrorist activities. Al Zawahiri has clearly vowed revenge against the US in the past: “No chief of ours had died of a natural death, nor has our blood been spilled without a response.” These words send a clear message regarding his motives and intentions. He is not just a threat to the US but to all those nations that oppose terrorism and want to live in peace.
We will continue this war on terror until we feel these terrorist organizations no longer pose a threat to our nations. The US does not condone terrorism, and our sacrifices in the region provide clear proof of our stance against terrorism. Our message is loud and clear: those who threaten the sovereignty of our nations and conspire to plot and kill innocent people of our nations will pay the price and be dealt with accordingly.
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There is no doubt that US is committed to kill all those who are against her. No one is looking the real fact which has been mentioned in our scriptures. Toaday the whole world power is behind few men, what was stated 1400 years ago: ” this world will become too short for a true Muslim” as interpretation. One should look at himself how much is he following Islam instead of blaming anti-American insurgents. Have a look deeply in the account who have killed how much population of the world in last five decades, it’s simple the US.
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So far he is very well protected and may enjoy this protection for a longer time as the protectors have learnt their weaknesses from Osama Bin Laden’s loss and must have countered them. Main thing is that Pakistan must change its policy towards terrorism and channel it to real economic progress where general population benefits the fruit of honest hard work.
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@sheheryar
If you don’t believe the flesh & blood wifes/kids which were left behind it’s clear that a USA video wouldn’t impress you either.
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@Khan:
Classic, just hide your head in the sand until you come up with another conspiracy theory to explain it all. Zawahiri is a hero to most Pakistanis, we get it. After all, Pakistan has the finest stadium named for Qaddaffi the world has seen. If you sincerely believe that the US has killed more people in Pakistan than your brother jihadis (TTP and assorted alphabet soups) and your cousins, the Salafi kamikaze-boys and the ISI, you need to get out of your Madrassa a bit more. It’s always easy to point the finger at the kuffar, but when your own precious bearded Pakistani Mujahideen are killing people left and right and your ISI kills journalists just for sport… that’s when the real intellectuals point the finger at the US/Israel. While you’re at it, take a look at how many people (Muslim and otherwise) have been killed in the Middle East this year… an objective observer (not that those exist in Pakistan) would come to the conclusion that most often, it’s Muslims killing other Muslims. Pakistan should have a great film industry, you show so much creativity in your conspiracy theories, a shame you can’t direct your imagination toward something a bit more… productive. But ask yourselves, if you throw in your lot with Zawahiri and his kind… will you be allowed to keep using facebook?
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Will it matter. Islam will live on and so with the devastating defeat to the western occupiers in Muslim lands. People come and go.
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@ali: Make no mistake-even muslims have occupied the other peoples lands -shall we apply the same principle buddy!!! You would not stay in the land you are in right now
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@@cv:
He still looks the same even after 10 years is because he practices YOGA & MEDITATION !!!!!!
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@Khan
How many deaths USA prevented? Had Osama not countered – how many terror camps flourished in Afpak. may be the 35000 stands pale in the further expansion to topple the govt of Pak and other Arab govts.
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