This aggressive Indian bid for a stake in Afghanistan’s natural resource potential comes against a backdrop of several important developments. Since last year, as it has become evident that the US is moving towards a structured withdrawal of combat troops, Indian policy on Afghanistan has come under intense scrutiny and debate in India. The bid for the Hajigak contract by Indian firms, which includes two prominent state-owned entities, signals an end to recriminations of years gone by. At the same time, it serves as a clear policy statement, investing confidence in India’s ability to navigate the changes taking place in Afghanistan.
Moving away from an aid and reconstruction engagement, India like China, seeks to invest in the long-term development of Afghanistan’s abundant natural wealth. Clearly, there are strong geopolitical undertones to this proposed investment; with this bid India positions itself to compete with China in the resource-rich southern Central Asia, while signalling to Pakistan that Indian stakes in Afghanistan’s future go beyond and are independent of the timelines of the US/Nato military presence.
However, the problems that have plagued the success story of the Aynak Copper mines in 2008, awarded to the Chinese consortium, should serve as a cautionary reminder to the Indians. China continues to grapple with several issues at its copper mine in Aynak, including local resentment; security problems; and the unearthing of ancient religious relics, which have all delayed the project from taking off. Significantly, the $800 million mobilisation advance provided by the Chinese to the Afghan government, which was to cover the cost of the deployment of a 1,500 member special security force to guard the Aynak mines, has already been utilised with no sign of the police force.
Another ominous reminder of the problems associated with developing large infrastructural projects amidst war and insecurity is the rehabilitation programme of the old 1950s US-funded Kajaki Dam in Helmand province. The US, which had bombed the dam in 2001, started repairing the power plant in December 2004 and has had several problems since.
As the US shrinks its military footprint and most Nato countries prepare to withdraw their combat troops by 2014, guarding and undertaking large infrastructure projects is likely to get more problematic than before. With this proposed investment, India is likely to be even more invested in the security status quo and the general drift of the US war strategy in Afghanistan, even more so than some Nato member countries such as Britain and Germany. However, the sands of security are likely to shift with the impending shrinkage of US/Nato combat troops on the ground. India has two options: to patiently sit out the impending period of chaos and risk, sinking a large investment in project delays, or to gradually expand its role as a security actor in order to protect its investments and role. Both options have enormous costs which Delhi must ponder before it ‘irons’ its resolve to go ahead with the Hajigak investment.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 10th, 2011.
COMMENTS (46)
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@Anil from Kanpur: Dude it's not wasting money. It's strategy. We are not there to help them like mother Theresa without expecting anything in return. We have a huge iron ore deficiency and future infrastructure projects gonna need steel. Chinese are much ahead in this than us. This can be a stepping stone to get access to energy rich central Asia that's why our companies are after this and the government is backing them. If this works out well we are gonna see massive infrastructure projects in India.
Hajigak mine is in peaceful Bamiyan province unlike Aynak mine in Logar province bordering Pakistan.
Now hear from an Afghan dear readers,
We as Afghans would love if India comes and invests in our country. The reason for this is simple, they haven't used us as their backyard to destroy us. We loved the Pakistanis when they gave us shelter during our weakest point of the Soviet War, but they used our weakness to destroy the country and send it back to the Midevil Ages by producing all those reckless warlords. Also, shouldn't a country like India who is the fourth leading country in the world in terms of amount spent in the development of Afghanistan be given the right to invest in it? Yes there are and will be security problems for the big companies that invest in Afghanistan and the main reason for this is ISI who is making and producing the insurgents in Pakistan and then sending it to Afghanistan in the name of Islam. I don't even know why pakistan was created on the basis of religion, because from what i see, they take comfort and pride in killing us Muslims in Afghanistan.
Dear Author : And the conclusion is? a) Good/bad from Pakistan's point of view. b) Good/bad from India's point of view c) Good/bad from south asia point of view. Your conclusion is missing except that its going to cost India a lot. But you do not give your opinion on affect on stability/instability of Afganistan due to these investments. Article seems to end abruptly.
@Zaid Hmid
Complete Khurffat!!!
@Zaid Hamid
capturing delhi? Like capturing a great white shark in your bare arms. then what? Get eaten up?
@Zaid Hamid is a satirical poster and is mimicking the the infamous tv demagogue. I for one fully support any and every attempt to expose him for the similar absurdities he espouses.
Wishing India all the best in this endeavor. Perhaps they might be able to steer away the Afghans from extremist ideology through economic opportunities and hope for a better future.
@Zaid Hamid Stop day dreaming. You have defeated none and will not be able to capture any. Because of foolish people like you, we had lost half of our country and the remaining half is facing an existential threat. Instead of capturing Delhi, let us work for making Pakistan a true federal democracy where Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi, Pujabi and others can live peacefully and equally in a federal system.
The writer fails to make any mention of the thousands of companies / businessmen / entrepreneurs from Pakistan actively participating in the afghan economy. Everything from petrol, diesel, atta, powdered milk, UHT milk, rice, cement, steel is exported from Pakistan to land locked Afghanistan. Fact is, Pakistan has a much bigger economic investment in Afghanistan compared to any country in the region. An analysis by the learned writer on these lines in ET would also be welcome.
Indian investment indicates that India is no more following the food steps of Pakistan just to install a government that would dance at Pakistani tune.winning Afghanistan is not possible through Taliban type government but by huge investment that would feed poor war torn Afghan patriots.. what else can Pakistan can do except wasting the energies in military type of solutions...
@Anil from Kanpur: There might be an Anil in Pakistan but I am not aware of a Kanpur in Pakistan. Be that as it may, addressing your helpful advice, Indians believe in sharing what little we have with those a little less fortunately placed than us. It is not only Afghanistan we are helping out, Bangla Desh is another example and scores of other countries whose young people are being educated/trained in premier Indian institutions.
India needs to clean up the poverty in its own country rather than meddling into other countries. The number of people living under a dollar a day in India is more than the combined population of Afghanistan! Lets Stop wasting money extravagantly and lets spend it on the welfare of our own populace. Just an opinion
@Dr Priyanka: " Hamid Karzai studied in India and I can give you examples of hundreds, nee thousands of Afghans living in India" Hahaha. Is that all? A couple thousand? How about if I tell you to compare that with "five million" !
@Feroz...You have a nice name. Keep fuming all you want. Ground reality is that once Americans leave, Afghanistan is most likely going to plunge back into instability again, one way or the other. India only maintains relations with the Karzai regime - a guy who cant even maintain control over his country and who is more like the "Mayor of Kabul" than the President of Afghanistan. Most of the Afghan population is illiterate and is mostly disconnected and doesnt care with whatever India claims it has done there. Its your dream and you must be living in fool's paradise if you think all will be well and merry for India after the US occupation ends.
@Observer: And why are you so afraid if some one reminds you about "your backyard Kashmir" where 80,000 Kashmiris have died ... Don't give them independence but sort out that problem first. Running from the Kashmir issue will not solve it or getting scared from it to an extend that people only refer to it as 'K' issue instead of taking the full name.
@Feroz: Well said Feroz .. Pakistan indeed has been sheltering millions of Afghan murderers on its soil and giving aid to them from past 3 decades ... In fact at one point it reached to 5 Million of them despite living on IMF loans and as some Indians (Mohan Ram) would proudly call it begging China, US and West for money. The article is absolutely accurate assessment of ground realities .. I would thank Indian commentators here for spewing hatred once again. I am sure Indian companies who are investing there know this reality and must have thought about it before investing there.
Pakistan should fence its eastern border to stop the flow of thousand of people who go back and forth without documents and must send the refugees back that will save its economy from the losses due to hosting refugees and can then invest in Afghanistan which together with the investment from other countries including India & China will create Jobs for these people in their land and will help reduce poverty and illiteracy in Afghanistan.
@Zaid Hamid
We defeated Russia in Afghanistan,,,we defeated America in Afghanistan…now its India’s turn…an this time Delhi will be captured.
Delhi will be captured in Afghanistan?????
Far as I can make-out the Afghans aided by Saudi Money and American Stinger missiles defeated the Russians, while your kind were busy skimming the cream off the aid.You never defeated anyone,not even the Mukti Bahini or the BLA. So just chill.
@Zaid Hamid: I think you are daydreaming and feel sorry for you! Try to remember what had happened in the past! Why do you want to capture Delhi? Is that what you teach your children? Then I feel sorry for you! Dream about peaceful Pakistan and India relations. Please donot dream the impossible or the one which is not achievable!
@SK: That's for us to decide. Not you! And by the way do you Hamid Karzai studied in India and I can give you examples of hundreds, nee thousands of Afghans living in India but lets leave that for now. The relationship with Afghanistan dates back to times before you were born! So keep your advice for yourself. As for dealing with the poor you know there are still thousands of Bangladeshis in India and many are in Mumbai. And I as a Maharashtrian should be complaining about it, not you! And we know who was responsible for pushing them into India, when we were so poor! Now our economy is looking up and we shall address that issue also!
@Quraysh Khattak: Yes my friend. The feeling to help Afghanistan in all ways is deeply etched on our minds. Atleast my heart beats for my Afghan friends. I hope the Indian govt gives the development of Afghanistan a top priority. Sincerely hope so. If Afghanistan trusts us then it would be great, if it does not then we would be devastated. But always be willing to help without expecting anything in return!
@SK:
" India should focus on the hundreds of millions living in poverty in the streets of Mumbai first before turning to Afghanistan." What India does is its Business as long as it is not sponging off other countries or begging for Arms or Aid. Why people should feel insecure if that country has invested over $ 2 Billion in development projects in Afghanistan? When Afghans do not hate Indians and are happy with the role played, enemies of Afghanistan objecting carries no water. India should also advise other countries to play a positive contributory role there, not a terrorising one.
@Paad PiddiQ:
No you can't invest few billions, billion, million or a rupee because you don't have any.
To SK
Mumbai must be bigger than Pakistan to be able to have 'hundreds of millions of people in the streets'!!
You idiot!
What a joke of an article! An office chair bound political appointee lecturing the hands-in-the-dirt Indian experts as to how to proceed in Afghanistan!
We defeated Russia in Afghanistan,,,we defeated America in Afghanistan...now its India's turn...an this time Delhi will be captured.
Instead of offering shelter, Aid and Guns to the Afghan murderers on its soil Pakistan must devise strategies where Afghans look at the country not as a terrorist state but a force for good. Obstinacy will mean more violence and bloodshed.
This is good news that foreign investment companies including several from India are keenly interested to invest in Afghanistan. We hope that Indian Government and companies will keep working with the Afghan government to explore the immense natural wealth there. This aggressive exploration of natural resources will help alleviate poverty in Afghanistan which in turn will help usher a new era of prosperity in the whole region.
India should focus on the hundreds of millions living in poverty in the streets of Mumbai first before turning to Afghanistan.
Writer's article smells biased. She metioned about Indian investments for minearals and warned to be aware of the situation in Afghanistan.She didn't even mention the aid provided by Indian government for roads,bridges or hospitals.She didn't mention the reluctance of pakistan government to provide route to India for trade,which could have improved lively hood of thousands of Afghans,if not millions.
Now I would say situation in Afghanistn is much better than pakistan and proof is these investments.As india goes hungry for resorces and technology ,Indian private companies will get no stones unturned for these,the way USA,EU or china did it.
Writer didn't mention much about china when china had invested in Afghanistan first.When chinese which are much like aliens to Afghans can survive in Afghanistan ,then why don't we Indians,who consider an Afghan as Frontier Gandhi, can survive there ?We understand Afghans much better than chinese or USA do. But Writer only mentioned china to warn India.
@Simbal Khan
Madam,
Let us look at this way. Some people want to put shovels in Afghan hands to engage them in activities that promise a better here and now.Some others are pushing guns and knives in their hands with a promise of a better hereafter.One of them has to go for the other to 'prosper'.
India has made its choice. Has Pakistan also done so?
@Meekal Ahmed
Are Pakistani’s not showing any interest in opportunities in Afghanistan? If not, why not?
Sir,
Who says Pakistan is not showing any interest in Afghanistan? Pakistan has dedicated entire NWA and substantial parts of south Punjab to its Afghanistan project. Afghanistan is not known to have any facility manufacturing Kalashnikovs, Ammunition and RDX. Obviously these goods are being supplied to the 'patriotic and friendly Taliban' from somewhere else and the same goes for chemicals required for turning opium into heroin.
Let us look at this way, a rescue aircraft circling at 5000 ft sees an injured person as a target for rescue, a vulture sees different opportunities in the same circumstances. Regards.
India will hire local security contractors, whereas China appears headed for a direct military involvement in Afghanistan within the next ten years.
It's incredible that Pakistani strategic affairs analysts are bothered about the future Indian investments in Afghanistan. The more logical analysis would have been to find reasons as to why no Pakistani company is bidding for business opportunities in Afghanistan; which Pakistan considers it's own backyard. The author is cautioning India about various pitfalls when it comes to investing in Afghanistan. Does this cautioning stems from the nervousness which the Pakistani establishment feels because of increasing Indian soft-power in Afghanistan? The Pakistani "Deep State" has tried every trick in the book to scare away the Indians from Afghanistan; they even bombed the Indian embassy twice over but to no avail. Afghanistan needs modernization and that requires investments from all the world and Pakistan has a very important role to play in bringing peace there. If Pakistan stops treating Afghanistan as it's colony and stops its plans to forcibly capture Kabul through their barbarian proxies; then I think Afghanistan can stabilize to more manageable proportions. As far as Indian presence in Afghanistan is concerned, we are well within our rights to develop strategic relations with moderate and progressive groups there. It's not just in India's but whole world's interest to have moderate government in Afghanistan. Surely, the Generals at the GHQ Rawalpindi would disagree.
Good article by the writer. I would say India has lot to offer to Afghanistan be it monetary aid, social, infrastructure and overall development. As Hillary said, India should take more leadership roles especially in South Asia. Live and Let live can still be practiced if India becomes more assertive and takes on a role of a leader. I know Pakistan would not like a "Chowdhary" in the region but I guess that is what is ultimately going to happen, just a matter of few years.
I am sorry to say one or two has commented really about the good article Simbal Khan has written.The writer is trying to alert the issues that Afghanistan is facing today and difficulty in investing be it India or China. I would love to see Paksitan also to invest in growth and betterment of Afghanistan which would help the entire region to prosper. I guess its much better that supporting to dangerous Haqqani network and thier merciless terrorists...!!!
Engagement is the key to defeating terrorism. This assumes that Afghans themselves are interested in advancing peace and progress for themselves and need va helping hand. India has developed a long history of peaceful reconstruction in Afghanistan for which Afghans are grateful. India shall be failing them if it doesn't stand by their side in this period of immense trial for them. Considering that China is already in and expecting that it (China) has the stamina to tough it out and not cut its losses and run, India is in a better position, in concert with china, to take a stand. These are the moments of history that stand out for all time. Years from now, when Afghanistan would have returned to peace and tranquility, Afghans shall remember who its friends were in its period of peril!
Just have a careful look at the article... The author is not happy at all by the fact that afghanisthan is getting better with someone to help.. Pakistanis must grow up and stop treating afghanistan as dump yard.... Let them grow.. let them not be a failed state...
LOOK, I want to digress from the subject a little bit and make a little more generic comments here.
India/Indians/Me included, have no nefarious plans in any part of the world. I'm not suggesting that you are suggesting it. On the contrary, I find your essay pretty objective.
However, India believes in live and let live. In the long run, Indian philosophy of tolerance/non-violence/co-existence will earn more people in the entire universe (a step ahead of the world) than any other prejudiced theories/practices/religion/ideologies.
THIS IS THE ONLY WAY forward. I really hope, India can bring some sincere changes to Afghanistan, followed by Pakistan.
@Paad PiddiQ:
How do you invest when you are begging China, the US and the West to pull you out of the deep pit Pakistan has dug
Are Pakistani's not showing any interest in opportunities in Afghanistan? If not, why not? We still have a lot of talent in various fields and NESPAK is second to none in making highly-competitive bids to undertake major works (as they have done successfully in many other countries).
@Paad PiddiQ: You don't even have money for your flood affected and you want to invest billion in afgan,leave this to india, china and usa.
I dont think India is foolish enough to send boots on ground to Afghansitan. Not sure under what assumption has the author made this conclusion? Also when a full 50+countries army could not stablize Afghanistan what hope does India have to do this singlehandedly?
If investing in Afghanistan will improve the condition of the people there, then India should take the risk. The word 'planned' sounds good but we know that we should be prepared for the worst kind of unpleasant surprises. But having mentioned that once India has promised to do something for the Afghans then the Indian govt must go ahead with it. If any political party does a U turn on this issue at least I shall not vote for them! And believe there are many in India who think like I do!
@Paad PiddiQ: Typical reaction of any Pakistani today - where all foreign policy is viewed through the India prism. (let me guess...the responses to my comment will be something to do with 'Kashmir'!)
Pakistan should invest few billion $ in Afghanistan and should expand its military in afghanistan.