Devolution: Waiting at the finish line

Today is a day of celebrations, reflections and acknowledging the autonomy of the provinces.


Fouzia Saeed July 01, 2011



The people of Pakistan, who do not count for much in our beloved country, have been milling about hoping to catch a glimpse of the ending to the devolution marathon on the 30th of June. With big drums around their shoulders and flower garlands in their hands, they waited, setting their eyes on the last two weeks of the race. They waited for the heroes, who made the promise of transferring powers to the provinces, to come out of this race as winners.  They wondered if the senior leadership within the political government would hold true to their commitment? Would Senator Raza Rabbani withstand the pressures from all sides to debunk the process? To our delight, we got the glimpse at the finish line of the winners making it to the end. Today is a day of celebrations, reflections and acknowledging the autonomy of the provinces.


All the necessary ingredients for a smashing Lollywood film hit are present in this epic, two-year long struggle. Villains played tricks on the good guys, tried to confuse the bystanders with phony street demonstrations, twisted the arms of Commission members to abandon their commitments and integrity. The plot became abnormally complex when some of the ‘good guys’ turned around and backed the bad guys. By this time, nearly everyone in the audience was totally confused.

The last attack, the appointment of Waseem Sajjad just before its conclusion, rocked the Commission, but it survived. Our eyes kept scanning the papers for news of the 18th Amendment Commission, to see if they would come through or not. The suspense was thrilling, yet scary. What if the party who initiated this process became frightened by the criticism from the powerful elite? What if the other political parties who stood by the consensus found little feuds with the ruling party and want to simply get back at them by scuttling the process? What if the PML-Q’s representative continued to create hurdles? What if this new government coalition tries to bring a 20th amendment and reverse all of these gains? What if a few of the members of the Commission waver? What if the Chair of the Commission resigns?

Waiting by the finish line, looking at the people around, I saw intelligent people from different parts of the country that really have been waiting for this day. People who have struggled for the rights they were about to get. They had tried to raise their voices throughout this process also, but with little ability to get the attention of the leaders or the media. They were ready to celebrate. Why weren’t all the political parties ready to take the credit and celebrate with them they wondered?

The Chair of the Commission, Senator Mian Raza Rabbani, and a few other committed members, like Afrasiab Khattak and Hasil Bizenjo, had stood strong in the face of unrelenting opposition from the well-connected bureaucracy. Senator Raza Rabbani was seen struggling with the bureaucrats of Islamabad, the well-paid media and the religious right that had more comfort in the centralised systems. Not only that, he was also seen wrestling with his own party who was supposed to back him up. The only armour he was seen wearing, leading the group like a knight, was that of his ethics and principles. The fact that the Chair had never taken a bribe, received property, obtained appointments for his relatives or other favours was what gave him the power to stand up against the slippery deals and overt attacks. I am sure he must have asked himself many times: ‘Whose battle am I fighting?’ The whole year was like the last 20 minutes of an action film. The fight started from the attack on the 18th Amendment by the judiciary and then continued with the onslaughts of civil bureaucrats, educationists and political elite.  All of this was sensationalised by the media who forget that every movie needs to reach a resolution between the protagonists. The audience was getting tired; this had gone beyond the limits of their patience. They needed a happy ending very badly – and soon. No matter how torn his clothes and how bruised his body, they needed to see Senator Raza Rabbani standing tall on the finish line as the winner on the 30th of June, 2011. And that is what we got. We got a happy ending after all. Regardless of the challenges ahead and minor issues of the transition, we need to keep our eyes on this major step that has shifted our nation in the right direction.

Those with the drums on their shoulders are beating them hard. We see women and men, youth, ethnic minorities, all celebrating the day which has been officially announced by the Cabinet to be the Day of Provincial Autonomy. There are programmes going on even at district level. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, celebrations are going on not only in Peshawar, but at the district level as well. Banners are up, thanking Mian Raza Rabbani and his Commission. Messages like “Provincial autonomy brings a Federation closer” and “Provinces will perform now” are up in cities like Lahore, Peshawar, Hyderabad and Islamabad. Raza Rabbani is clearly seen as a national hero and his efforts are being appreciated by citizen forums everywhere.

It is hoped that this historic change in the direction of governance in Pakistan will bear fruit. Even though we do not fully believe in the Lollywood ending of living happily ever after and considering the unending sagas we face every day on our socio-political and economic landscape it still feels like a happy ending.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 1st, 2011.

COMMENTS (1)

Meekal Ahmed | 12 years ago | Reply This is a very moving piece, Madam but I have serious reservations. Not on devolution per se which I support. But devolution has given the provinces millions, nay, trillions of rupees and they are all off to the races in a competitive dash to spend. First, the provinces do not have, as yet, the technical and administrative absorptive capacity to spend huge sums of money and spend it well. There will be a tendemcy to throw money at all sorts of wacky projects (Yellow cabs come to mind) leading to enormous waste and corruption. Second, this money has been given to the provinces with NO conditions/conditionality. There is no agreement, for example, on raising resources. This should have been clearly specified in the agreement. Namely, that the provinces will take steps over the medium-term to raise their own resources. Or, as in the case of the USA and elsewhere, that the provinces will always balance their budgets AT THE MINIMUM. If their are no revenues, spending will be cut to maintain fiscal balance. Of course one could go further and actually specify a time-PATH of fiscal surpluses. In that respect, we would expect Punjab and Sind to take the lead. Why is this important? Last year, the consolidated fiscal deficit (federal plus provinces) was set at 4% of GDP with an agreement that the provinces would produce a combined surplus of 1.5% of GDP. Instead, each province came out with deficit tax-free budgets. So, within the first month of the new fiscal year, the entire macroeconomic framework was rendered irrelevant. This year 2011-12, the same thing has happened. There is no suprlus of 0.6% of GDP from the provinces so that consolidated fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP is already 4.6% of GDP and the framework is again off-track. This has cascading negative macroeconomic implications that will be apparent down the road -- on growth, inflation, interest rates, the external balance and the exchange rate. As an economist, I find all this very distressing. Are the provinces residing on Mars or are they a part of the federation? Does fiscal devolution not come with ANY responsibilities, except to spend? Unless this is corrected, this fiscal devolution that you trumpet so loudly is rapidly turning into a fiscal nightmare. Next time I hope you will write about something more sober and real. About the need for provincial fiscal responsibility and the need for consistency with economy-wide targets and objectives. It will not make you very popular, but you would be talking sense and doing the right thing.
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