Weathering heights

As the earth heats up, world leaders huddle in Paris to avert looming danger

The global community may be anticipating a climate apocalypse in the future, but for Pakistan doomsday has arrived. A killer heat wave in Karachi, flash floods in Chitral and a mini-cyclone in Peshawar have claimed over a thousand lives in the country this year, demonstrating just how pressing the issue has become.

With natural calamities becoming frequent across Pakistan and in the rest of the world, global leaders are gathering in Paris, tomorrow, November 30, at the 21^st United Nations Climate Change Conference, better known as COP21, to chalk out a strategy to stop further heating up of the earth’s atmosphere. The conference ambitiously seeks to reach a legally binding international agreement to keep global warming below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial levels.

 Call to action

At the receiving end of nature’s fury, Pakistan can no longer stay in denial and the first step in fixing any problem is admitting the problem exists. However, environmental expert and author of BBC’s Climate Asia report Khadija Zaheer says the task at hand is no longer to prove the existence of climate change but to adapt to and cope with it. “If you speak to farmers and fishermen or even a layman, there is a growing perception that summers are hotter and longer while winters are delayed. In some parts of the country, within the winter months, there have been rapid shifts from intense cold and unseasonal snowfall to unexpected occurrence of frost which affects crops and livestock,” she says. “According to Pakistan’s chief meteorologist, the nature of rainfall has deviated from the seasonally accepted patterns. On one end, we have torrential downpour which causes flooding and stripping of top soil and on the other, we have sparse rainfall,” she adds.

Pakistan and the rest of the world are in no position to continue with the ‘business-as-usual’ mantra as climate change has the power to disrupt livelihoods and create economic and social pressures that will exacerbate over time, Zaheer says. According to a 2015 World Bank report, global warming will reduce the income of Pakistan’s bottom 40% by more than eight per cent. “The severity of poverty impact will vary among countries with Guatemala, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and Yemen being the worst hit,” states the report.

Being one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Pakistan is believed to face tremendous costs in terms of water, food and energy security. A review of the past few years strengthens this view; food prices skyrocketed after the 2010 floods destroyed 2.1 million hectares of agricultural land, sending the price of wheat upward by 50%. Along with causing food scarcity, the floods lead to the spread of infectious disease and diarrhoea.

“It is a shame that while the world has climate change at the top of its agenda,

Pakistan’s priorities are different. Reviving the economy and ending poverty are very important issues but we need to understand that climate change will affect each one of these problems,” says environmental lawyer and activist Ahmed Rafay Alam.

Zaheer points there is great disconnect between intention and action despite a well-though out national policy on climate change. “The policy document needs to be translated into actionable programmes that are funded and run by both federal and provincial governments,” she stresses.

 Paris Agenda

In the run up to COP21, developed countries have been raising money to help developing countries adapt to and mitigate climate change. In 2009, the advanced economies formally agreed to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 to assist poorer countries fight the effects of climate change. Pakistan should therefore use its vulnerable position as leverage and lobby to secure climate funding raised by the rich countries, says Alam. “In Pakistan, where economic development and reduction in poverty are at the forefront of national policy, it is crucial that our leaders put our case forward in front of the world at the Paris summit,” he says. “Pakistan can lead debates on investment in green infrastructure such as clean energy and better water management practices as well as lobby, individually and with groups of less developed nations, to have rich countries commit to drastic reductions in emission,” he suggests.



Being one of the worst- affected countries, Pakistan must set aside an estimated $10.7 billion each year to adapt to climate change and will need support from the international community to cope with increasing challenges.

Indicators of a warming world

Rise in sea level — It has been estimated to be about 6.7 inches in the last century, however, the rate at which the sea level has risen in the last decade alone is nearly double of that. A 2012 Asian Development Bank report has put Karachi at high risk from the increase in sea level in the Arabian Sea.

Rise in global temperature — Global surface temperature reconstructions show the earth has warmed since 1880 — the period following the Industrial Revolution. Glaciers in Pakistan are constantly melting due to this rise in mercury, affecting water flow and the agricultural crop cycle.

Warming of oceans — Top 700 metres of ocean showed a warming of 0.302°F since 1969. This has been a major cause of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.

Glacial retreat — Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world, including the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. The Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers in Pakistan have melted up to 35 metres since 1984.

Decrease in snow cover — Spring snow-cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades, with snow melting earlier than usual. Data from Pakistan shows large variations in snow-cover over the years, featuring an increase in the trend from 2008 to 2013.

Extreme events — Heat waves, droughts, floods and storms are becoming common and more intense. The recent drought in Tharparkar, heat wave in Karachi and floods across Pakistan are proof of extreme climate conditions in the country.

Ocean acidification — Acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by almost 30% since the start of the Industrial Revolution. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2bn tonnes/year. Many forms of marine life — especially species that build calcium-based shells — are under threat in Pakistan due to ocean acidification.

SOURCE: NEWS REPORTS/CLIMATE.NASA.GOV

Ferya Ilyas is a senior subeditor at The Express Tribune. She tweets @ferya_ilyas

Published in The Express Tribune, Sunday Magazine, November 29^th, 2015.