Af-Pak policy review: Analysts question US claims

Analysts say there is a contradiction in Obama's claims, the review does not reflect ground realities.

ISLAMABAD: As the US Administration claims to have made ‘notable but reversible gains’ against the al Qaeda and the Taliban in a year-long review of its war-strategy for the region, diplomatic and defence analysts here believe it does not reflect the ground realities.

The summary of the otherwise classified review made public on Thursday shows al Qaeda’s leadership in the region is at its weakest since 2001. Experts however question the Obama Administration’s claims.

“The top al Qaeda leadership…. Osama, Zehwari and others are still at large, so, it is really difficult to make such tall claims,” remarked Brig (retd) Muhammad Saad, an expert on Afghan affairs.

Former Ambassador to Kabul Rustam Shah Mohmand said the review did not talk about the real issues in Afghanistan. “President Obama tried to hide facts from the American public,” said Mohmand, who is also part of the track-two diplomacy aimed at seeking an end to Afghan war through political means.

“The fact of the matter is the US-led Nato forces are bogged down in Afghanistan. They don’t know how to come out of it,” he added. But the review reported certain gains against the Taliban in Afghanistan following a troop surge by the Obama Administration.

In Afghanistan, the momentum achieved by the Taliban in recent years has been arrested and reversed in some key areas, although these gains remain fragile and reversible, according to the findings of the review.

“There is a contradiction in these claims,” said Brig (retd) Saad who said that 2010 was the deadliest year for the US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan in terms of both civilian and military casualties.

US President Barack Obama reiterated his commitment to hand over security of the war-torn country to Afghan security forces by 2014. “This is not practical …. they couldn’t achieve this in nine years, how could they do it now?” questioned Rustam Shah Mohmand.

Others say the problem with the Afghan national army is: they are not being well-trained, they are not ethnically representative and on top of it they don’t have the leadership to lead this difficult task.

They also say that claims on alleged safe heavens in the tribal areas of Pakistan are exaggerated.

“I believe the cross-border movement in the tribal areas is not the driving force behind the insurgency in Afghanistan,” Brig Saad said. “The real problem is in Afghanistan,” he added.

Meanwhile President Obama called President Asif Ali Zardari to apprise him of the salient features of the just concluded US policy review on Afghanistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 17^th, 2010.