Pakistan and Afghanistan: critical divides

For Pakistan, a stable Afghanistan is essential. The two neighbours, tied by longstanding history and geography, have to choose between cooperation (which brings stability) or suspicion (which keeps both sides unsettled). Pakistan's main worry is the presence of militant groups on Afghan soil, especially the banned TTP and Balochistan-based outfits allegedly backed by India. Despite the security worries, Pakistan's recent active engagement vis-à-vis Afghanistan suggest that cooperation must not be lost to mistrust.

In Kabul, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi sat down with his Afghan counterpart Sirajuddin Haqqani to press for closer cooperation against militant groups, stronger border controls and steps to stem drug trafficking. The meeting came as both countries look for ways to place their relations on steadier ground. The Joint Coordination Committee has been brought back, and ambassadors have returned to their posts, showing a clear intent to rebuild regular channels of cooperation.

Trade has also picked up, with the Early Harvest Programme cutting duties on eight farm goods. As a result, Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan have risen by 39% to about $774 million in FY25, while imports from Afghanistan have more than doubled. Officials on both sides see the EHP as the first step toward a preferential trade agreement, creating economic incentives for peace. At the same time, barter arrangements and trade in Pak rupee have helped ease Afghanistan's cash crunch, showing Islamabad's willingness to keep trade flowing and build mutual reliance.

Still, serious challenges continue to pose threats. A UNSC Monitoring Team report, out in February 2025, confirmed that the Afghan Taliban's financial, operational and logistical support for TTP has emboldened the group, which conducted over 600 attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil between July and December 2024. The report noted that TTP chief Noor Wali Masoud's family receives $43,000 monthly from the Taliban, while new training centres have been established in Kunar, Nangarhar and Paktika. The group's growing ties with Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent and other militant outfits under the Tehrik-i-Jihad Pakistan umbrella threaten to escalate from a bilateral to a regional menace. Pakistan's Azm-i-Istehkam operations reflect a firm resolve to counter this threat.

However, diplomacy remains central to Pakistan's approach. During his visit to Kabul, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar signed the Uzbekistan Afghanistan Pakistan (UAP) Railway Framework Agreement, signalling Islamabad's push to bring Afghanistan into broader regional trade links. If the plan takes shape, it could open new trade routes and turn stability into an economic gain for everyone. Pakistan has been equally receptive to UN initiatives, with Special Representative Roza Otunbayeva proposing a "prioritized" regional dialogue to ensure the voluntary and dignified repatriation of Afghan refugees — an issue both countries are grappling with amid a disorderly influx and returns.

China's growing involvement brings new possibilities. With closer cooperation between Islamabad, Kabul and Beijing, the idea of expanding CPEC into Afghanistan is now moving closer to becoming a reality. For Kabul, integration into CPEC offers a path to economic revival; for Islamabad, it provides leverage to press for action against militancy while offering Afghanistan a stake in long-term stability. China's readiness to invest in roads and trade routes shows that peace now carries real, shared benefits for everyone involved.

The years of mistrust have shown that force alone cannot make Pakistan's western border secure. A real solution needs both firm security guarantees and meaningful incentives for cooperation. If Kabul genuinely moves against militant hideouts, both sides stand to gain — Afghanistan could see more trade and fresh investment, while Pakistan would face fewer attacks across the border. If nothing changes, the bloodshed will just keep going, hurting both countries and leaving the whole region uneasy.