Reversal of fortune

There is no reason to doubt Chinese ambitions can potentially catapult Pakistan out of present morass and transform it

Some wise guy once said, “Good luck happens to people who work hard for it. But sometimes people just fall into the honey pot.” Pakistan, it seems, has fallen into one. And the timing could not have been better. As Pakistan fights a war of survival, struggling to reverse the moth-eaten policy of strategic depth, as it staggers forward to dismantle the gods it had created itself, the world watches with bated breath, all apprehension and anxiety. Pakistan is taking the war decisively to the terrorists, taking on the once cherished assets. Is this reversal a consequence of the barbaric Army Public School attack which saw our children butchered?  Well that attack did prove to be a turning point. The Chinese nudge may have been another factor.

Timing is the key here. China has unfurled its grand strategy for the region that will hinge on a monumental overland route across Central Asia and a maritime belt across the Indian Ocean. South Asia is all ready for a makeover. Silk Road refers to the historical trade routes linking Asia to Europe through a region spanning South Asia, East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. The Gwadar Port will be the pivot of this all, with western China connected to it through rail and road links. It will allow China access to Middle Eastern oil which will be cheaper due to closer proximity and will also make it less vulnerable to any maritime blockade in times of war. China presently imports oil mainly from Iran which reaches China via the Strait of Hormuz, a much longer and more expensive route and one of the busiest sea lanes in the world.

The Chinese president’s address to our parliament was significant for three reasons. The president was careful in putting forth the Chinese expectations and broad contours of the grand plan. Xi Jinping hailed Operation Zarb-e-Azb and termed it a game-changer. For the discerning it was a clear message that China wants terrorism swept clean for two reasons. A safer Pakistan has a direct bearing on the success of the Silk Road. Secondly, terrorism is spilling over from Pakistan into the western Chinese province of Xinjang. The heartening thing is that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with an eye on the next elections and Chinese pressure, will be bending over backwards to remove all the irritants likely to scuttle the Chinese initiative.

The Chinese president also hinted at the importance of peaceful coexistence with India as an important enabler. This makes sense as a Pakistan apprehensive of its eastern border will continue to disproportionately allocate resources. The Pakistan Army is already stretched thin, deployed on both eastern and western borders and in restive Balochistan. As I see it, as the initiative evolves, Pakistan will be under increasing pressure to not only clamp down on cross-border activities and on the likes of Lashkar-e-Taiba, but also expand its engagement of India through greater trade, a liberalised visa regime, etc. The Silk Road aims at integrating South Asia, East Asia and Central Asia into one great monolith comprising countries with shared military and economic interests. China, of course, will be the centre of gravity, the grand sculptor redefining the contours of this part of the world.

Interestingly, China is not offering us any dole to be spent as we deem fit. Projects have been clearly identified in energy and infrastructure and will be awarded to Chinese companies. China will thus closely supervise how the money is spent. This is likely to trigger bureaucratic and political inertia in Pakistan as there will be little speedy money. Pakistan has been addicted to US dollars which rarely found their way to where they were needed most. The US has, despite being our biggest beneficiary, been responsible for fattening and empowering an oligopoly drawn from business, the military, bureaucracy and civil society at the expense of Pakistan. Perhaps, it was easier for it to just dish out money demanding compliance in return.

Pakistan has one of the strongest armies in the world. With a buzzing economy, upgraded infrastructure, peace with India and the beast of terrorism tamed, there is no reason to doubt that Chinese ambitions can potentially catapult Pakistan out of the present morass and transform it in a matter of two decades. Even the naysayers agree that the Chinese investment in the starved regions of Pakistan will bring much-needed stability through economic emancipation and halting radicalisation. We are not imagining the honey pot. We are in it.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 1^st,  2015.

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