Battling the militants

The war that is being fought between the Pakistan Army and the forces allied to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is relentless and ferocious. As winter fades from the mountains of Waziristan there is a report that in a single battle more than 80 militants have been killed and 100 injured in Khyber Agency. The army followed up on air strikes close to the Afghan border in Tirah Valley, the scene of much fighting already. The figures are difficult to verify as there is no independent reporting coming out of the conflict zone. A consequence of that is that rumours — always as ready to fly as bombs and bullets in warfare — abound.

The rumour that Mullah Fazlullah had been seriously injured or possibly killed first surfaced on March 21 and has since been denied by the TTP. Taliban groups rarely admit the loss of key leaders immediately, and will often deny a loss in the absence of independent evidence — so Mullah Fazlullah may yet be alive. The army has so far not confirmed if it was chasing a high-value target and the picture remains clouded. While the war against militants will understandably be a long-drawn one, it is taking its toll in human terms with over a million displaced though some are returning to their homes, and the military is upbeat about its progress. Yet in terms of evaluating how successful the various operations are, we remain largely in the dark. The casualties on the militants’ side far exceed those of the Pakistan military, yet the former still seem able to engage in large-scale battles — although invariably losing them.

As was demonstrated in Afghanistan at the fall of the Taliban in 2001, the Taliban fighters were not militarily defeated; they simply melted away to regroup, rearm and continue the war which continues to this day. This is something we must remain wary of. The ongoing action is pushing TTP affiliates further into Afghanistan, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is on record having voiced his concern about the consequences of this for his country. We would welcome a little more critical assessment, because crude figures do not tell the whole story.

Published in The Express Tribune, March  25^th,  2015.

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