The hard-hitting problem and the flip of a coin

The grounds are small. The bats heavy. The batsmen strong. The balls forever new.  The pitches flat. The fielders in the circle. The spectators impatient. There is glory in boundaries. The stage is set. And ICC’s World Cup formula — for better or worse, for entertainment or disaster — is in place.

Cricket has been a batsman’s game for some time now. Bowlers are a rare breed, good bowlers an ever rarer one, good young bowlers almost none. But the batsmen — they come in drones. And 2015 has been no different as the list of world-class batsmen grows by the day. But a very specific kind of batsman has emerged as the World Cup’s definitive success story — the hard-hitter, or in less flattering terms, the slogger.

It started in Christchurch where Brendon McCullum made 65 off 49 balls and Corey Anderson made 75 off 46 balls in the tournament’s first match. Aaron Finch and Glenn Maxwell followed that up with 135 off 128 balls and 66 off 40 balls respectively. David Miller then scored 138 off 92 balls in the next match. Then came Suresh Raina, Darren Sammy, Andre Russell, Thisara Perera, Shikhar Dhawan — to name a few. Hard-hitters all, match-winners all — a set pattern throughout the tournament so far.

The numbers back this up. Of the tournament’s top 10 run-getters so far, only Dhawan (94.59), Virat Kohli (82.25) and James Taylor (97.45) have strike-rates under 100. Twenty batsmen average more than 50 in the tournament so far; of them as many as 14 score at better than run-a-ball. Russell, the man with the tournament’s best strike at 265.38, has made 69 runs without yet losing his wicket. Include him in the list and 15 of the top 20 averages have strike rates of more than 100.

To add to that, as many as 46 batsmen have scored more runs than the balls they have faced; and of the 19 scores of 75 or more, 15 have been made at better than run-a-ball.

This has led to some high-scoring innings, with eight of the 13 matches featuring scores in excess of 300. But this has also led to some one-sided matches, and while there have been eight scores of 300 in the first innings, Ireland’s successful 307 against the West Indies was the only one in the second innings.

In no World Cup has batting first been such a clear advantage. Of the 13 results, eight have been won by the side batting first. West Indies — in Ireland’s incredible run-chase — and England —defending 123 — are the only two Test-playing nations that have lost after batting first. The average winning margin for the side batting first is more than 106 runs. All eight matches were done and dusted halfway through the second innings at the latest; most even before that.

In contrast, barring New Zealand’s chase of England’s 123 in 12.2 overs, the sides that have successfully chased down scores have all had to work hard for it. Ireland lost quick wickets late on, Scotland somehow managed to dismiss seven New Zealand batsmen as they chased 143, UAE pushed Zimbabwe till the end and Sri Lanka required Mahela Jayawardene’s century and Perera’s acceleration to get over the line after losing both openers to golden ducks and being reduced to 51-4.

The recipe for success has been simple; call correctly at the toss, bat first and hit hard, especially at the end when the fielders are inside, the ball has lost all swing and movement, and the bowlers are tired of body and mind.

With nearly 600 fours and more than 100 sixes already in the tournament, almost half of the total runs scored have come in boundaries. The ICC must be careful, this may soon be a case of too much of a good thing. Boundaries are no longer at a premium, in fact, they are almost common place. The men who hold the bat hold all the power and it is not the bat-manufacturers who are to blame.

The 2015 World Cup may be remembered in years to come as the straw that finally broke the camel’s back; something must be done, and done soon, or these hard-hitters may end up hitting cricket hard. If it keeps on raining (runs), the levy’s gonna break.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 24^th, 2015.

Like Sports on Facebook, follow @ETribuneSports on Twitter to stay informed and join in the conversation.