Five Pakistani trends to watch in 2015

With most of our attention focused on breaking news and headlines of the day, sometimes we miss the trend lines in society shifting significantly. Here’s a list of five trend lines to watch in 2015.

Firstly, Pakistan’s (informal) economy will boom: everyone and their mother-in-law are making the case for why Pakistan’s economy is on the brink of collapse and mismanagement. This makes a sensational news story for ratings but the truth is more nuanced. With oil and electricity prices steadily declining, disposable incomes will rise and a consumption-centric culture will fuel a boom. Put your finger on the pulse of Pakistan’s informal economy and you’ll feel the full force of the boom to come. For example, restaurants aren’t just packed but have waiting lists for over an hour (on a weekday and outside defence), gleaming new cinemas are seemingly popping out of nowhere and lines for parking outside shopping malls are stretching over a kilometre long. Unlike the last major consumption boom, fuelled by cheap credit in the Musharraf years, this one has a stronger footing (as long as fuel prices hold). This is not to say that there aren’t real imbalances or problems in Pakistan’s formal economy but the economy that the ordinary Pakistani consumer experiences should brace itself for a real boom.

Secondly, security is no longer a public good: we’re at a tipping point for how middle and upper class Pakistanis view personal security. We have precedence for how public goods turn into private goods. Our parents studied in public schools, we studied in private schools. After accepting a few hours of load-shedding, our parents did a cost-benefit analysis on buying generators. We view generators as a necessity of life in Pakistan. How will this trajectory move forward in personal security? Those who can afford it will hire private guards, move into gated communities or leave Pakistan. None of this is new but we should expect more security experts talking about personal security on the media, hosting workshops, and communities and neighbourhoods taking charge of their own personal security. Every man (and minority) for himself.

Thirdly, Pakistan’s start-up culture will come of age: imagine a marriage between Pakistan’s signature entrepreneurial spirit and Silicon Valley inspired cutting edge best practices on entrepreneurship. This is a marriage made in heaven (and Pakistan). Take the example of the car pooling application Tripda, led by Ahmed Usman Sheikh, which has the potential to up-end how we imagine urban and inter-city transportation in Pakistan. With established interests not allowing any transformational changes to Pakistan’s public transport status quo, upstarts like Tripda can create the space and conversations needed to trigger a virtuous cycle of change. While most Pakistanis would never have done business with a technology start-up in their lives, this will begin to change this year as start-ups and the infrastructure around them (incubators, funding, and technology) come of age.

Fourthly, a do or die year for Pakistani cricket: I might not be very popular saying this right before the World Cup but the one thing we still really celebrate about Pakistani cricket is its unpredictability. This is really a nice way to say we lose more often than we win, but the spectacular, unpredictable wins are worth the wait. This masks a subtle but steady downwards trajectory for popular interest in cricket. If Pakistan marks an early exit from the World Cup this year, we may see the visible beginning of the end of Pakistan’s love affair with cricket. But then again, this is exactly the type of pressure situation that delivers Pakistan at its best. Let’s just say this trend’s a bit unpredictable (I’ll let you figure out if the pun is intended).

Lastly, the rise of the Pakistani people standing up for what’s right: the flip side of the institutional failures hurting Pakistan is the rise of individuals trying to do the right thing, at great personal sacrifice and risk. Take Jibran Nasir, in many ways, Pakistan’s last man standing against extremism. His organic movement to reclaim mosques by asking imams to condemn the Peshawar attack was particularly inspiring; a direct confrontation of clerics at the Lal Masjid by unarmed civil society activists was unimaginable just a few months ago. Another anecdotal example, a group of concerned Pakistanis in Switzerland coming together, attempting to fund education for underprivileged children thousands of kilometres away in Gadani through The Citizens Foundation. Away from the spotlight of the headlines, Pakistanis will rise to Pakistan’s rescue in 2015.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 12^th,  2015.

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