Property prices: Yearly results underscore real estate stagnation

Experts say incredible hikes of 2013 gave unrealistic expectations.


Shahram Haq January 11, 2015
The year 2014 was depressing for the real estate market of Islamabad. No major locality even came close to the gains experienced in 2013, and most registered controlled rises at best. PHOTO: REUTERS

LAHORE: The year 2014 was nearly stable for the real estate market of Pakistan. Although experts predicted a stronger display than 2013, in reality it did not give substantial gains to stakeholders, especially those whose livelihood depended on the sector.

The real estate market of three important cities, Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad in general showed a slight growth in 2014, however, trend varied from area to area.

Karachi

According to yearly data compiled by zameen.com, Karachi’s market in 2014 was led by Gulistan-e-Jauhar, where the prices of a one-kanal plot posted an average growth of 22.19% in 2014, as opposed to 21.96% in 2013.

All other major localities struggled to replicate the success of the previous year.  One-kanal plots in the Defence Housing Authority (DHA) gained 11.85% in 2014 as compared to 30.02% in 2013, while Gulshan-e-Iqbal rose 7.65% in 2014 as compared to a whopping 65.25% rise in 2013. Same-sized plots in DHA City had gained 27.88% in 2013, but managed a rise of 24.28% in 2014, according data collected by the website.



“Unlike other cities, real estate market of Karachi has performed much better in 2014, even during the political crisis”, said Defence and Clifton Association of Real Estate Agents General Secretary Nasir Jamal, while talking to The Express Tribune. In 2014, people within Karachi shifted to DHA and PECHS due to better facilities and relatively good law and order situation. Investments also flown towards newly-announced Bahria Town, he added.

Lahore

Lahore Cantonment and LDA Avenue-1 performed well in 2014 and the average price of one-kanal plots in both localities rose by 15.89% and 24.19% respectively, as compared to 2013, which posted gains of 10.52% and 9.73% respectively.

For DHA Lahore and Bahria Town, the situation was quite the opposite. Both localities had a glorious 2013, gaining 31.60% and 39.30%, respectively, but struggled to perform equally well in 2014. In calendar year 2014, one-kanal plots in DHA Lahore on an average gained only 8.96%, while prices of same sized plots in Bahria Town actually dropped to 1.12%.

“The starting months of 2014 were extremely good and we were predicting the same trend for rest of the year,” said Focus Estates CEO Rana Iftikhar.

However, the induction of new taxes in provincial budget coupled by political turmoil nearly halted activities for four months. In the last two months of 2014, the market somehow rebounds, though some societies like Bahria Town are still under pressure, he added.

Islamabad

The year 2014 was depressing for the real estate market of Islamabad. No major locality even came close to the gains experienced in 2013, and most registered controlled rises at best.

Bahria Town had an impressive 2013, which saw prices shoot up by an astounding 115.15%, was the only locality to experience an outright drop in prices of one-kanal plots in the neighbourhood lost 22.79% of their value in 2014.

Same-sized plots in Sector F-11 gained only 3.76% in value over the course of 2014 after having gained 46.06% in the preceding year.

The situation was the same in Sector E-11, where one-kanal plots gained only 6.34% in value in 2014 as compared to the 48.25% rise in 2013. Similarly, DHA Islamabad had registered a 91.97% rise in prices of one-kanal plots in 2013, but this growth came down to 12.09% in 2014.

“Prices cannot continue to rise unchecked forever, and every now and then we are going to see a more sobering year,” said Zameen.com CEO Zeeshan Ali Khan.

“I think the controlled growth in 2014 was a result of a correction following unrealistic price rises in 2013, along with the uncertain political situation.

“However, 2015 is going to be a better year in terms of activity in the property market of Pakistan, especially if the political climate, which has cooled down lately, continues to remain calm.”

The writer is a staff correspondent 

Published in The Express Tribune, January 12th,  2015.

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