The war of nerves

With Imran Khan’s November 30 deadline for the acceptance of his demands only days away, the war of nerves that had erupted between him and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on August 14 has now entered a fiercer phase. Imran has threatened to make it impossible for the PML-N government to function if it tries to forcibly disrupt his protest rally. The PML-N government, on its part, has also been issuing equally provocative statements. The purpose of indulging in such inflammatory exchanges against each other on a daily basis clearly appears to be aimed at forcing the other side to commit a political blunder or two.

Indeed, the PML-N government would find itself in a dire political soup if on D-day, it tried to use strong-arm tactics to disperse a democratically legitimate opposition protest rally. Likewise, Imran, on his part, would suffer a serious political setback if he failed to keep his protest within the limits allowed by the law. One hopes that on November 30, the two sides would abide by their respective pledges to remain within the legal space each is allowed in a normal democratic dispensation. To be sure, going by how things have panned out over the last three months of political agitation, November 30 would also, hopefully, pass off without creating any major political problems for either Imran or Nawaz.

Of course, one can disagree with the methods and the language used by Imran in his daily harangues at the dharnas and public meetings, but only the most insensitive would disagree with what he is saying. He is an effective communicator and what he says carries the weight of his charismatic personality, his superstar appeal, his past successes and a big store of credibility that he has built in his long years of public life. The ‘Go Nawaz Go’ movement seems to have succeeded in its objective beyond expectations, but without actually forcing Nawaz to go.

But then, with hindsight, it is safe to assume that Imran never expected Nawaz to go. His demand that Nawaz resign forthwith was, in fact, a tactical move to shock the nation into sitting up and listening to him with eyes glued to TV screens round the clock, and be mesmerised by one Imran Khan deadline after another.

And all credit to his strategists for coming up with the idea of public meetings as soon as a clear waning of interest in the dharnas was detected. And as soon as the PTI came to the fag end of its cross-country public meetings, they came up with another tantalising deadline — November 30. So, one expects these strategists to come up with a fresh political tactic by the end of 2014 to keep the attention of voters, nationwide, riveted to Imran and his daily message until, of course, the next elections.

Imran says he expects the next elections in 2015 whereas Nawaz insists that these would not be held before their schedule, which is 2018. Perhaps, both are right. Nawaz is certainly talking about the general elections, whereas Imran is perhaps, talking about the local government polls, which if held in Punjab by end-2015, will most probably be sweeped by the PTI on the basis of seeming political gains it has made in the province since August 14.

But no new elections, whether local or general, can be held without first holding the long-delayed national census, fresh delimitations of constituencies and, developing a universally-agreed electoral reforms package and incorporating it in the Constitution through normal parliamentary procedure. Naturally, it would not be in the interest of the PTI to sit out while parliament tackles these explosive issues. So, one expects Imran to enter, sooner rather than later, into parleys with Nawaz to seek and finalise consensus solutions for settling these politically contentious issues. Meanwhile, the superior judiciary appears all set not to allow the authorities any more excuses for foot-dragging on the issue of appointing a new chief election commissioner, a process which Imran has already made impossible to complete without his cooperation. It is, therefore, up to Imran’s strategists, how they mentally prepare the PTI supporters to reconcile with the idea of replacing the confrontational phase with one of cooperation admixed of course, with a pinch of salt.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 26^th, 2014.

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