IS knocking at the door

A report dated October 13 marked “Secret” has been revealed. It calls on the heads of law-enforcement agencies in Balochistan to be especially vigilant as the Islamic State (IS) is claiming to have recruited 10,000 to 12,000 followers from the Hangu and Kurram Agencies in the tribal areas. The IS has reportedly sought linkages with the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat; and formed a 10-man strategic planning wing. The report originates from the home and tribal affairs department of Balochistan and appears to be genuine. It contains a warning that the IS plans to attack government buildings, military establishments, as well as target people based on the sects they belong to.

That the IS has surfaced in Pakistan should come as no surprise to anybody in the law-enforcement agencies or the intelligence services. With a population that is already radicalised to a large extent in Fata and parts of the settled areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the IS is pushing at an open door. Six senior commanders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan have already pledged allegiance to the self-proclaimed caliph of the IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Thus far, the IS has not ‘owned’ any incident in Pakistan, and its presence is perhaps, a matter of perception rather than an accomplished fact. The challenge now is to prevent perception and reality from bonding. The rise of the IS in the last year has produced a level of threat that in Western states is perceived to be as great if not greater than that presented by al Qaeda in its several franchises. The IS has considerable support in parts of Iraq and Syria, is militarily successful and seeking to expand into South Asia, and the countries of the Gulf region. Pakistan cannot assume that the IS presence is little more than an unpleasant dream. We are exactly the fertile ground it seeks and unless the IS is effectively fought from the outset, this terrorist group will flourish in populations that are tinder-dry, latent fires in search of a spark. We cannot say we were not warned.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 11^th, 2014.

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