Will Modi deliver a Congress-mukt India?
Modi will speak at about two dozen rallies in Maharashtra. The Congress Vice-President, Rahul Gandhi, is to speak at only two. Opinion polls have not thrown up a clear picture of who is going to win, but there seems to be a consensus that the Congress is going to lose.
The India TV-CVoter tracking poll projects the BJP as the single largest party in the 288-seat assembly with 93 seats, followed by the Shiv Sena with 59 seats. Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is projected to win 47 seats, followed by the Congress with 40 seats.
Another poll, this one by ABP News and Nielsen, said that the BJP would win 112 seats, the Shiv Sena 62, the NCP 38 and the Congress 45.
Another channel’s analysis was that the “BJP is expected to get 90 seats, followed closely by the Congress, with 72, and the Shiv Sena with 61. The NCP is projected to win 38 seats. It could mean that when an alliance breaks, the voters back the stronger party in the alliance, which has a national clout. Though the Shiv Sena claims it is still stronger than the BJP in the state, the Narendra Modi charisma will take the party through as Uddhav Thackeray cannot match the Modi-pull as of now.”
In Haryana’s 90-member assembly, one poll claimed that the BJP would emerge as the single-largest party with 33 seats. The Congress, ruling the state for the last 10 years, would come third with 16 seats.
The loss of these two states will be a severe blow to the Congress. Not only will the party’s space shrink further, it will lose access to funds with the loss of Maharashtra. It has lost an election in that state only once, in 1995. If there is a state in India where the Congress is well funded and where it has a whole host of experienced leaders, it is Maharashtra. If Modi can come and sweep them out even in that state, it will be a shameful reflection on the Gandhis. Particularly, on Rahul, who is being casual about these blows which are actually fatal to the party.
My prediction is that the break-up of the alliance will be devastating for the Shiv Sena, which will slowly become irrelevant. The Thackerays and the BJP had a strange arrangement for a couple of decades, which did not make sense to observers. The BJP would contest more Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra and the Sena would get more assembly seats. However, the BJP would win about 4.5 out of every 10 seats it contested, while the Sena could only win three. This clearly showed which party was stronger overall. But Bal Thackeray’s charisma and Pramod Mahajan’s focus on Delhi rather than the state, allowed the Sena to prosper at the BJP’s expense. This has ended.
The Shiv Sena is not a conventional party and does not even bother with a proper manifesto. It tends to be reactive on issues and its leadership is most active about irrelevant things like the Pakistani cricket team’s visits to India. Without the support of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (which is headquartered in Maharashtra), the Sena will wither.
The Congress defeat in Maharashtra will bring up more voices to challenge the strategy (such as it exists) of the Gandhi family to counter Modi. So far, they have not really shown any stomach for a proper fight and do not seem to have the hunger that Modi does. When the losses of Maharashtra and Haryana come, the prime minister will be two steps further along on his mission to deliver a Congress-mukt Bharat.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 12th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (26)
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Congress will never die; it will continue to live as BJP.
ET mods - Please allow response to a man who simply makes personal attacks and in this. Case has attacked me.
@Rangoonwala: I mentioned Pakistan because this is a Pakistani newspaper and. You are someone from Pakistani origin and the two countries obtained independence from the British on the same day.
Since you ask about Male it has a large number of highly radicalised Muslims who destroy symbols of other religion. In France Muslim women cannot wear the hijaab in schools in India they can; in France they cannot wear face veil in public , in India they can.
In any case you made comments aout hate filled nature of Modi without providing a simle url of a sinle election speech which he made which can be considered hate filled. You also attack my belief system without understanding it in any way. I on the other hand stated facts which are in public domain and I am the one who is malevolent?
@WB
I sometimes doubt that @Rangoonwala is a relative of ET moderator or perhaps one of the ET moderators. Or I don’t understand how such inane, hateful comments are allowed here.
WB: I have had my comments that were non-abusive but challenging the context, had been edited (specially in blogs) and posted with altered meaning without even acknowledging that the author or moderator has edited my comments.
BTW, @Rangoonwala..change your handle to reflect reality. Real 'Rangoonwalas' don't want you in Burma.
Why are you expecting Modi to do everything?
Let the Congressis share some responsibility... Right now they themselves are working on delivering a Congress-mukt Bharat.
ET - Pls. publish...
@WB: WB 'water bottle'...no hate there, someone just stated cold hard facts. Nothing compared to your normal vitriol reserved for Islam Muslims and Pakistanis. That you dish out regularly. Better still,...stay on hindu newspapers websites. They do have them in hindustan ? Well,..considering mass illiteracy....
@Rangoonwala:
Rangoonwala, congrats on being alive. Congrats on creating the record as being the longest living person with lowest IQ.
@Rangoonwala: While he is destroying Indian secularism . You , i pity , never had one .Why??? Bcz looking at the newspapers it seems Pakistanis care more about weakening of Secularism in India & not the absence of secularism in Pakistan.
@Rangoonwala: You are already high on Afghan heroin and having deliriums.
@Rangoonwala: Is Pakistan secular? Even if India does not remain secular why do you care? It just confirms your TNT does it not? Have fun with your saintly leaders and leave us with our hatefilled leaders. We will cope.
Imcidentally you may have noticed that while Muslims from Pakistan (Shias and Ahmadis - yes in India even Ahmadis are considered Muslims) seek asylum, not to mention Pakistani Hindus and Christians - Indian Muslims are not seeking asylum nor are Indian Christians. Go figure.
@Rangoonwala: My friend, I feel your pain. Get used to it. I agree with Mr. Patel that if BJP + allies are able to form the MH Govt this time, the Thackerays could become irrelevant in MH politics, which is a good thing, because they are a bunch of goons who survive and thrive on hatred of the 'other', and the definition of this 'other' changes every decade. The tragedy for the Congress is that they are today a party that exists only to let the first family rule, so jettisoning the Gandhis is not really an option as the edifice cannot stand in the absence of this central pillar (as Madame de Pompadour said "après nous, le déluge"). That said, the only thing that the Nehru - Gandhi clan actually can do for the Congress is to make a clean exit and then allow the organization, to crumble, remake and renew itself after the inevitable convulsions and complications that ensue in the aftermath. A Nehru-Gandhi mukt Bharat is better in the long run than a Congress-mukt Bharat.
@Rangoonwala: Wow, that is indeed a leap of imagination. So when did Modi said anything that can be described as hate? Any link will help. Otherwise, what you have written is just plain blabbering. I guess you should look inwards and see what is happening in your country and religion.
Not just Congress mukt Bharat, we need Nehru-Gandhi mukt Bharat which much include maneka and varun gandhi along with rahul, sonia, priyanka as well as other dynasts.
@ Rangoonwala.
Godwins Law or Godwin's Rule:
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1"
There will be no Congress mukht, bukht, dukht Hindustan. True the party of sane people took a trashing.and lost 'big time' as they say. Rest assured it will recover. Because there is no place for thugs out on bail like Amit Shah. No 'Butcher of Gujrat', peddler of hate and acrimony and division can survive in politics for long. Modi simply cannot cut off a huge 200 million Indian Muslims segment as non entities. They exist. They are there. And the repercussions can be horrifying. Might as well round them up and put them in concentration camps. After all, Modi is following his hero's game plan. Surely there are copies of Mein Kampf in his office. Just need a hindu Eva Braun,....er... devadasi. to complete the picture. So it becomes a question of not how many seats are won by which party. It is a matter of when the Hindustanis will wake up to prevent their future going up in a Sati to Modi.
I still don't understand, How the state election in India matters to the Pakistan !!!!. Indian media and common man hardly bothered about the Punjab or Sindh or KP in Pakistan .. But I don't understand Pakistan media logic. !!!
Better would have been to talk if Modi can deliver a "Corruption Mukt Bharat", "Gandgi MUkt Bharat", " Disease Mukt Bharat".
If India becomes Congress "mukt", Rahul Gandhi should be given most of the credit with an assist from Modi.
I won't be sorry to see Shiv Sena lose big, not be needed as an alliance partner and eventually become irrelevant. As far as I am concerned, it is a party of hooligans that thrives on dividing people.
Amen to your last sentence. Or as they say in Hindi - aap ke moonh mein ghee shakkar.
Shiv Sena was created by ConAngrez in 60s to counter son of the soil Modi like congress leader of Marathis who started as a porter at Chatrapati Shivaji Terminus called Sa Ka Patil. Bala Saheb's dad was an atheist so called progressive. ShivSena did something right and that is putting in check gangsters Haji Mastan & Dawood Ibrahim.
Let us hope it is a Nehru-Gandhi mukt Bharat. The current breed of the clan are destroying the country. Breaking up this dynasty will be a shot across the bow for similar wanna-be dynasties in the states. The Congress party better have a catharsis and have a purge of its leadership. Like a rose bush to stay healthy, old branches and weak branches need to be pruned to give way to new healthy branches to emerge. Else, the plant will wither away.