The central strategy of this electoral gambit is to monopolise the non-Muslim vote, especially of the Hindu majority Jammu region. The toughened posture towards Pakistan for meeting Kashmiri separatists was aimed at this very gallery. If the BJP is able to win majority seats of the Jammu region along with the Ladakh region, it will only need another few seats from the (Muslim majority) Kashmir Valley to clasp the majority in the Jammu and Kashmir legislature. Besides pursuing local partners in Kashmir, the BJP is also banking on the Pandit refugee vote and zeroing in on constituencies where their vote may sway the results.
Another manoeuvre behind the cancellation, particularly over the separatists meetings at the Pakistani High Commission, was to ensure a strident poll boycott in Kashmir — a separatist tradition increasingly reaping diminishing returns. A lower voter turnout will help reduce the margin of victory while improving the BJP’s chances of securing seats especially where there is a substantial Pandit vote. The poll boycott in the earlier parliamentary elections had also enabled the BJP to secure a telling majority.
The immediate electoral stratagem apart, New Delhi cannot afford to polarise the region. It also cannot prolong the impasse with Pakistan or Kashmir in the long term. The timing and pretext of the present move were aimed at consolidating Indian interests not derailing the process. With a history of now-on-now-off political engagements this was a calculated continuation of the same. The internal political situation in Pakistan being in a flux there was nothing substantive India could have gained from the talks.
Of late, both India and Pakistan have switched roles, with Pakistan pursuing a broader gamut of engagement while India continues to harp on the issue of terrorism (as Pakistan earlier did on Kashmir). Even if keeping within the purview of India’s ‘terrorism’ paradigm, it will have to soon revert to engagement with Pakistan, given the emerging regional dynamics in the form of militant radicalisation within Pakistan, increasing securitisation of Afghanistan, shocking advances of the ISIS and the implications these developments have for Indian national security.
In Kashmir, too, India will need to pursue partners for peace, especially in the backdrop of its proclaimed developmental agenda. It will have to deal with the separatists who still represent an overwhelming sentiment even if facing eroding political credibility. A rigid stance will legitimise the hardliner separatists along with their radical agenda. It will further alienate the youth and reverse the post-2008 switch from violent to peaceful methods of protest. If this reversal does take place, violence may return with a vengeance — something India can ill-afford.
Hopefully, the present posturing was just a tactical interlude and not the glimmerings of an evolving strategic doctrine. Beyond the electoral rhetoric neither can India afford to set the bar too high for engagement with Pakistan nor practically scrap Article 370 in Kashmir (which has successively provided constitutional cover to dilute Kashmir’s autonomy). Hopefully Prime Minister Modi will return to displaying the national self-confidence he did during his swearing-in ceremony earlier this year and help embark the region towards a path of stability and security.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 8th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (35)
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@Syed Jalal Kashmiri: Why not India do as your "all-weather friends" China did in Tibet? Flood the place with non-Kashmiri Indians? That would really solve all problems. Kashmiris would have jobs, there would be no danger to Kashmiri culture or Islam, and there would be peace and progress.
This will be the final solution if you don't mend your ways. We can't live with the present problem forever.
@author and others, what modi and BJP is targetting is Article 370. When BJP gets majority in J&K, they can repeal Article 370 and send recommendation for that to Govt of India, That is the whole plan, well after that may be we will be back to 1947/1950 and start over all again.
@James: Your criticism of Modi sounds Indian since you display the harshness of a well wisher. I am no Modi fan & have no liking for his worshippers here but you will agree that a visit by a high-security-VVIP to a troubled area is more of a nuisance than help.Thousand crore or even ten times that amount do not solve. If men, material & machines for relief work aren't readily available money serves no purpose. However, Modi's real strength (that Kashmiris will find out) lies in organising what happens afterwords when media attention shifts & people are bored with the news & only mud remains. Reconstruction is a hugely arduous job requiring great skill, experience & patience/perseverance None better than Modi for that. I had seen him at close quarters in action when I was peripherally involved in logistics during rehabilitation work at Kutch after devastating earthquake of 2001. He is a master organiser. Kutch was a havoc back then, it's heavenly now. And credit goes to Modi. If Kashmiris let him, he will convert this calamity into a blessing of sorts not letting the death of innocents go waste. Out of sadness will come some lasting joy.
Not sure why there are so many negative comments about this article. Its a fairly level headed article. I really don't find anything faulty here but sound analysis whether one likes it or not.
To the author, let's for a moment assume that Modi has exactly in mind what the author is saying. But the challenge is whether Pakistani army will let Nawaz Sharif negotiate much. When two sides are negotiating a hard problem, both need to be assured that the other one can make concessions with authority. Pakistani army and ISI have played such a destructive role in the world from 1-800-nuclear line from AQ Khan to Mumbai campaign by Hafeez Saeed to hiding of Bin Laden that no sane person can negotiate with good faith with any political leader of Pakistan. Even the flamboyant Army leader Musharraf fit the phrase "mulle ki daud masjid tak" and ended up squandering an opportunity of peace by starting Kargil.
The only way Kashmir issue gets solved is the world powers target ISI S wing and some of Pakistani army leadership for sanctions and forces Pakistan to clean up its backyard. This will not happen till China realizes that it is no longer in its interest to prop Pakistani Army for the short term goal of bleeding India. Unfortunately world history is replete with short sighted policies of world leaders whether it be actions of US / UK in the middle east or many such examples in South Asia. So not sure how this will all end
@Aschraful Makhlooq: " Pakistan-India relations can never be normalized in the true friendship sense……." One decides issues on the basis of trade-offs. Have you considered that India may not be as concerned or keen about "normalization of Pakistan-India relations"as Pakistan may be? You might have a very wrong perception of India's keenness in the matter because of the way these relations have been handled by the sickular party previously in power. In fact, the way they conducted those relations was more to appease their Muslim vote bank in India rather than seeing any great advantages of having good relations with Pakistan, which is quite evident from the fact, as you say, that they went nowhere for the last 69 years. @James: "@Feroz: The area of Kashmir was flooded on the 5th with 70 people dead.What was Modi doing addressing the children,when there is a disaster taking place." Read yesterday's news: Digvijay Singh, the Khadim-e-Adna of the Congress Dynasty, and Ghulam Nabi Azaad (a Congress leader from J&K, who generally commands a great deal of respect) have praised how Shri Narendra Modi, the PM of India, had handled the flood crisis. So, what do you have to say now to that?
India cares about Kashmirirs, Indian PM announced 2100 crore INR equivelent to 3550 crore PKR to kashmir. Let see how much Pakistan give to their side of LOC.
@James: It is not just announcement of aid but the fact that massive multidisciplinary rescue and relief iperations are underway in Jammu and Kashmir. People of Jammu and Kashmir are Indian and no one is going to ignore them in times of distress.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/massive-rescue-operations-on-lakhs-still-stranded-in-jammu-and-kashmir/articleshow/42085847.cms
This is the greatest ever dilemma with India that India always has been considering Kashmir its integral part not a disputed territory this is why this core,burning and most top priority issue has been hanging in the balance since last 65 years and is the main cause of tension between Pakistan-India relations and Pakistan and India fought 4 wars over Kashmir's issue and till now both countries are spending trillions of Rupees on the LoC's and borders' issues.Unless Kashmir's issue is resolved Pakistan-India relations can never be normalized in the true friendship sense.......
A very honest and levelheaded piece by the writer. Just like no one in India cares about what Pakistan thinks about Occupied Kashmir, in a very similar way this writer has every right to express what she truly believes in.
@philipine234 looks like you didn't get to learn about true Islam, unfortunately main stream media has been hijacked by some hardliner fanatics. Which faith doesn't have a subgroup like that? Do we generalize all religions based on just a bunch of uneducated poverty stricken men who have no idea what to do with all that testosterone.
@a_writer, the reason this article looks familiar is because the writer wrote the truth and its hard to alter or fabricate the truth. no mater how you look at it, its going to appear the same!
blessings and peace you all~
@James: Modi's home minister was there on the day of. Modi himself came the next day. Plus there is a chief minister of the state wo was there. Certainly no one has neglected Jammu and Kashmir in time of its need.
Without the participation of the 97% of Kashmir's population which is Muslim. Elections, no matter who wins, are null and void. We Kashmiris care a great deal for Pakistan and know for a fact any future Kashmir will be united with Pakistan.
@James:
So there have been no floods in Pakistan? Modi visited Kashmir within hours and announced a package of 1000 Crores, which is 20,00,00,00,000 Pakistani Rupees. This is more than the budget of your defence establishement.
How much has Pakistan fledged to the people of AJK? I am very curious to know. Did Nawas Shariff visited Kashmir? I thought he was busy in Islamabad.
Ms Lone! it would have been good if you would have used the word 'consider' for example Modiji could have considered this or that. You mentioned that 'neither can India afford to set the bar too high for engagement with Pakistan nor practically scrap Article 370 in Kashmir'- may I tell you the truth. Although I have nothing against Pakistan and have good pakistani friends and my solicitor[bless him] is also a pakistani, there is a strong feeling in India that the 'K' word should never ever be discussed with Pakistan. About scrapping the article 370- the Indians want it scrapped. Modiji might do what he thinks is best for India. About the ISIS or Al Qaeda, people are worried, but this would not blackmail them into talking with Pakistan. About separatists- people of India think that they're having the cake and eating it too. They evoke a feeling of distrust, disgust and anger in the common Indian mind. This is the harsh truth.
@James:
".Action should have been taken at the earliest to provide relief to the people"
You are being unfairly critical and biased not recognizing the facts. The moment the disaster struck, the Indian army was directed to provide immediate assistance. Modi's visit there was not really needed for the relief efforts, but is was to show his solidarity with the people who were affected.
In contrast, even after nine years, the people affected by the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan controlled Kashmir and other northern areas are yet to receive necessary and sufficient aid to rebuild their lives. On a more galling action, Musharraf promptly spent the $3B foreign aid received for earthquake victims on buying radars, fighter jets and missiles.
The first few paragraphs in this article (about BJP's electoral strategy in J&K) seem to be copied of an article that appeared in 'Foreign Policy' or a similar US website. When I read it, I thought I had read the same opinion somewhere else 2 or 3 weeks ago. I couldn't locate the article I was thinking about in FP. But I know for sure, the electoral strategy Ms.Lone talks about is lifted off another website!
I am not sure why a Pakistani citizen is living in India.
Anyways, most of the author's arguments are nothing more than Pakistani talking points. She is not aware of many important facts. For example, only the hardcore sunni Islamists form the pro-Pakistan separatist gang. They represent about 6% of the total population of Kashmir.
Demographic fact is that nearly 65+% of Kashmiris are composed of Hindus, Buddhists, Shia, Ismaili etc. groups who are perfectly content with being part of India. Of the remaining 35% sunnis, barring hardcore sunni Islamists, also don't want anything to do with Pakistan. Even the old staunch pro-Pakistan clown Syed Ali Geelani has stopped demanding annexation with Pakistan in the past 10 years.
More importantly, the ~ 4 milliion Muslims of Kashmir are no more special than the 200 milliion strong Indian Muslims.
@Author, Your views are delusional at best. I detect an Imran Khan like hope in your thinking.
@James: So Modi should have been there before the floods you mean? And if 2100 Crore is a PR stint, then I would say its an expensive one. By the way did NS go to AJK yet or any other minister from Pakistan for that matter?
@James: The home minister was in Kashmir prior to Modi and the state also has chief ministers. So it is not like work was at a standstill pending Modi's visit.
By your logic if someone is not there the very first day they should never go or else they will be taunted with why did you not come earlier.
When he got there he did not just announce money. He identified what was holistically neded -more boats which were flown in from other states, tents 5000) because homes were destroyed and blankets (100,000) because temperatures were dropping, army being asked to work on restoring communication so people in distress can rewch out and to rebuild bridges so that rescue work is facilitated by facilitating movement. Not just that there was an amount already announced i.e. 1100 crore. When he came there and saw scale of destruction, he immediately raised the amount by another 1000 crore. Though Leh and Ladakh do not have floods, some connecting infrastructure was destroyed ehich could cause them prlems in einter because they need to store food supply and other essentials now, which is difficult if transport infrastructure is destroyed.
So he did not just show up and announce amounts, he sat with CMs and other locals to fully understand the nature and scale of support needed - over and aove money.
We remember Zardari going o his palace in Paris when floods were at their worst in 2010.
I fully agree with "philipines234". In Hindi there is a saying 'Vinaash Kaale Viparit Buddhist' meaning when the destruction is round the corner the wisdom shrikns to zero and the minds goes in the destructive direction.
@Feroz: The area of Kashmir was flooded on the 5th with 70 people dead.What was Modi doing addressing the children,when there is a disaster taking place.After making an aerial survey on the 7th and declaring it a national disaster,announcing crores for relief is just a PR exercise.Action should have been taken at the earliest to provide relief to the people.For a PM who is claimed to be decisive,this is disappointing
@ModiFied: "Even population wise Hindus are not far behind Muslims in the world. We are fed up of the type of blackmail author is preaching here." What matters is the effectiveness and quality of that population. That is why Muslims being far more in numbers than Japanese or Israelis can never hope ever to compete with them. Then if one looks at the gross dis-empowerment of Muslim women in all Muslim societies, Muslims are effectively about half the number of Hindus in the world; Muslim women, not because of any fault of their own, have been reduced to a burden. Couple that with a Muslim male burdening himself with 8 or 10 children on an average, the quality of Muslim population goes right through the floor and effectively, they are reduced to one-eighth to one-tenth of Hindus. Just the headcount does not count. It is what is inside a head that counts.
@philipine234: As an Indian person I write this and reply to some of your points... I actually understand where the likes of the @author are coming from. The plain fact of life is - while it is true that Pakistan ought not to crave for more given their past and recent history, the fact is that Pakistanis (the @author included) regard J&K as their country's "jugular vein" and in fact regard the heartland of India (including esp Delhi and its surroundings) as the heart and soul of Islamic rule in the subcontinent. Without this the real mission of "Two Nation Theory" is incomplete -- and after all, how can a body (or country) function properly without its "jugular vein" and its "heart" (both of which presently lie with its "enemy")...? Try as much as anyone will to deny all this, these are facts of the Pakistani mindset which will never change... and the kind that only adds to the numbers of the Hafiz Saeed's band - whether Indians like it or not...
Try writing such article about Xinjiang. And in that article try giving Chinese the subtle direct threat you are giving to India in this article. Rest assured you will beg for asylum in western countries cause even your brethren Arabic countries won't take you in. This my dear is proof of Indian tolerance, do not mistake it for our weakness. Pakistan underestimated it thrice in past and so far has lost half it's land. Please stay happy with whatever is left with you.
If a Politician does not have political goals he should not be in Politics. PM Modi has already overflown the flood hit regions of J & K and within an hour announced a relief package of Rs 1000 Crores -- towards Disaster relief, rehabilitation and compensation for losses suffered by the people. Being decisive he is in an position to deliver what neither India or Pakistan could deliver to the people of J & K --- a better quality of life and a brighter future. Whether the people of J & K are willing to embrace him or not is their choice, however the responsibility for making that choice and the aftermath rests solely with them. Self appointed interlocutors do not fit into his scheme of things and he will try to take his bouquet of offerings to the people and canvas their support.
In dealing with muslims we have to learn that islam and muslims win through intimidations and blackmail, abuse and threats. This has been so since 1400 years. Congress was a party that ALWAYS buckled under muslim blackmails. This became a "winning" tactic for muslims. I hope that BJP puts an end to it finally. Muslim opinions are no more important in India. Islam was created in Makkah and not in the indian subcontinent. Let muslim opinion prevail only in Makkah. Nowhere else in the world. This is the solution also to the problems in Pakistan, whose people are not arabs but descendants of hindus.
"..It will have to deal with the separatists who still represent an overwhelming sentiment even if facing eroding political credibility..." Eroding 'political credibility' of separatists can't be true as separatists never had any 'political credibility' to begin with. If any of separatists clowns ran for an election in the valley, they will lose to any other party!
'....The writer is a Pakistani of Kashmiri descent based in Srinagar. She holds a Postgraduate degree in International Relations from the University of Cambridge..." BTW, what are you doing in India? You are welcome to go back to the 'land of pure'
Ninety percent of world problems, including that of Kashmir will cease to exist if Muslims learn to live with non Muslims peacefully. Non Muslim world is running out of patience and activities of Jihadis might push for an all out war. Imagine the outcome of such war. Rest assured India won't compromise on Kashmir and is ready to pay any price, including an all out nuclear war. Like Muslims, Hindus are getting radicalized very fast now and are ready to face ISIS type goons. Please don't underestimate Indian resolve. Even population wise Hindus are not far behind Muslims in the world. We are fed up of the type of blackmail author is preaching here.
A prejudiced analysis...if "Modi" then throw in "Godhra"..a tired, overworked, self goal...apparently a "disease" that the May elections did not cure for many "journalists" :)..atleast given the author's background can be justified :)...Imagined, wistful, stretched arguments, veiled threats as to why India needs to "resolve" the issue to the satisfaction of the terrorists and their patrons across the border. Passing reference to the Pundits as consolidating behind the BJP blissfully overlooking the pogrom (yes, this is a pogrom, not Gujarat!) committed on them by Paki terrorists shows the cliched inflexibility of the Pak argument that has fetched negative dividends..all in all, nothing new in the article and more wishful thinking with subtle threats for India to "resolve"...just doesnt work...author is tied up in knots of stale, unrealistic thinking...not Kashmir
Madam Lone, Hope you realize how ironical it sounds to the people in Jammu and Ladakh when you say "New Delhi cannot afford to polarise the region". Who is and who has been in the business of polarisation? As you yourself admit cancelling talks increases the popularity of BJP amongst residents of Jammu and Ladakh. Why would that be so? Could it because of the polarisation politics from the valley?
Your comments about advancing IS, radicalization of Pakistan, subtle and not so subtle suggestions of impending violence again do not deter India.If wars and terrorism couldn't intimidate India between 1947 and 2014, they are not going to deter us in 2015.
Hopefully some of the Huriryat sections participate in the elections and form a unity government with the BJP. Nothing inspiring across the LoC.
Your last sentence does not make sense at all. The latest move by Modi reflects national confidence more than his previous actions.
The knot is in your mindset, undo it and it will solve. Let's face the reality and be practical. Neither India nor Pakistan can reverse the clock and undo the history already cast in last more than six decades, unless you want to go to wars. I don't think, this is a better option, then why not to reconcile and learn to live with realities Pakistani military generals must mend their mindset and leave India centric policy. It is more in favour of Pakistan, of course it will do good for India too. I would have rather tried to post a column that will try to bridge the gulf than increase it.
A prejudiced analysis...if "Modi" then throw in "Godhra"..a tired, overworked, self goal...apparently a "disease" that the May elections did not cure for many "journalists" :)..atleast given the author's background can be justified :)...Imagined, wistful, stretched arguments, veiled threats as to why India needs to "resolve" the issue to the satisfaction of the terrorists and their patrons across the border. Passing reference to the Pundits as consolidating behind the BJP blissfully overlooking the pogrom (yes, this is a pogrom, not Gujarat!) committed on them by Paki terrorists shows the cliched inflexibility of the Pak argument that has fetched negative dividends..all in all, nothing new in the article and more wishful thinking with subtle threats for India to "resolve"...just doesnt work...author has tied herself up in knots :)
Why are Muslims so sensitive and keep distance from non Muslims? I can't understand it! After 1947 partition of Indian subcontinent, which was basically and absolutely demanded on religious basis, has already failed its very purpose, as Pakistan soon divided again into two. Now, with no malice, as the things are moving, people and voices even from within Pakistan is being raised that will Pakistan survive. Its not me saying it. Why the blame India, Hindus and maintain distance from non Muslims when the umma can't see eye to eye within themselves. The author should have rather concentrated on cleaning her own house than mudslinging in neighbour. Kashmir has to be left out, if both Pakistan and India want to live in peace, unless the greed of Caliphate is the cause, as one see ISIS rising. This, at best, can only be classed as suicidal, if I'm not wrong. Hence fanaticism must stop to pave a way for pragmatism. Pakistan isn't able to maintain the land they got in 1947, yet their hankering for more is driving them crazy to the point of disaster. I hope that it won't be misunderstood by my friends on the other side.
Quote from this article " New Delhi cannot afford to polarize the region. It also cannot prolong the impasse with Pakistan or Kashmir in the long term." unquote.
That is the author's personal opinion. A large number of Indian population support the Govt. in what it is seeking to do in Kashmir and also with regard to Pakistan. People in India believe, BJP coming to power in Kashmir will be the answer to the 68 year old long issue. The people of India have realized that the article 370 of the constitution, according special status to Kashmir has done no good. It only helped perpetuate the sense of alienation amongst a section of the Kashmiri Muslims, rendered the Kashmiri Pundits homeless and helped the pro-Pakistan secessionists.
Secondly, the authors suggesting that India will eventually be compelled to engage with Pakistan due to quote - " the emerging regional dynamics in the form of militant radicalisation within Pakistan, increasing securitisation of Afghanistan, shocking advances of the ISIS and the implications these developments have for Indian national security" unquote ... sounds a bit like blackmail ... which obviously will never work on the Indian leadership.Ms Lone, not sure why you simply cannot grasp a simply reality, despite living in Srinagar - No one in India cares about what Pakistan thinks about Kashmir.
Kashmir is a law-and-order problem for us - which we will solve thru local police. End of story