Decisive round between Abdullah and Ghani to be delayed

Taliban’s ‘spring offensive’ may prove to be major security challenge.

ISLAMABAD: Election authorities say the runoff between leading presidential candidates Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani will be delayed with the Afghan Taliban having vowed to launch a spring offensive in the near future.

Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission has completed a review of fraud complaints ahead of the second round and will release the final official results of the April 5 presidential polls on May 14.

The second and decisive round was originally scheduled for May 28, however, election officials now say a number of setbacks have made it more likely that the next round would be pushed to mid-June.

As no presidential candidate secured the required 50% plus one vote, the country’s law requires a second round between the top two candidates. A section of the Afghan media reported that efforts to make a coalition government failed as both leaders want a decisive victory.

Independent Election Commission’s (IEC) Chairman Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani has cited the March 29 Taliban attack at IEC headquarters in Kabul as the cause for the delay.

“The law says a runoff must be held two weeks after the final results are announced, but we lost some crucial election material in the March 29 attack and will, therefore, not be able to hold the runoff vote on May 28,” Nuristani was quoted as saying by Tolo TV in Kabul this week.

Politicking picks up

Both Abdullah and Ghani have started political maneuvering and are involved in hectic consultations with other candidates. Abdullah succeeded to win the backing of Gul Agha Sherzai, the former governor of Kandahar and Nangarhar provinces, who came sixth in the presidential polls. The Afghan media is reporting that Zalmai Rasoul, who secured third place among the eight presidential candidates and has a strong Pukhtun vote bank, is likely to announce his support for Abdullah.

Ghani, too, has been keeping busy and has held a series of meetings, including one with former warlord Abdul Rasool Sayyaf, who came fourth in the race. However, Sayyaf is yet to choose a side.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami, which supported Qutbuddin Helal in the elections, says it will boycott the second round as policies of both the leading candidates are against their party’s stance.

“We have decided to boycott the second round as Abdullah and Ghani support the bilateral security agreement with the United States that will allow the invading troops to stay longer,” Hizb spokesperson Haroon Zarghoon told The Express Tribune on Friday via phone.

Another security nightmare

Afghan security forces will face a second major challenge in less than three months as they prepare to perform security duties on election day without the help of foreign troops. Afghan forces won praise for ensuring relatively peaceful elections in April, but are reportedly wary after the Taliban announced on Thursday they would be launching their annual spring offensive.

The Taliban said in a statement the main target of “Khyber” operations would be foreign invaders, their backers, spies, and civilian contractors.

Afghan officials dismissed the Taliban announcement as mere propaganda, with the Ministry of Defence stating Afghan forces have also launched their offensive, “Fatah”, and would not allow the insurgents to create problems.

“People have faith in their national forces and they have the ability to ward off any threat,” read a defence ministry statement in response to the Taliban threat. It further stated that Afghan forces had been leading all military operations since last year and foreign troops had not been taking part in direct engagements.

Defence analysts also downplayed the Taliban threat. “The announcement is aimed at terrifying people ahead of the runoff, but they would fail to disrupt the process like they did during the April 5 polls,” defence analyst Naik Muhammad Kabuli told BBC Pashto in a recent interview.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 10^th, 2014.